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Conflict Shitpile III - Diplomacy Defunct Edition
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2017-10-10 at 4:50 AM UTC
Originally posted by infinityshock ive been saying that ISIS is a western/US creation, doing the bidding of their western creators. i wrote a long-ass post/thread somewhere about the explanations why ISIS isnt a mudslime-based organization and is a western one.
i'd look for it but i dont want to sift thru tons of gay homosexual queer anal rape sodomy posts. -
2017-10-11 at 11:40 PM UTCIRAQ - Kurds are panicking, they believe that the Iraqi Army and PMUs are planning major military operations into Kurdistan simultaneously from Kirkuk in the south and Mosul in the North.
In case you haven't been paying attention, the US/Israeli-backed push for Kurdistan's secession is completely reliant on Kurdish control of Kirkuk - it's a massive oil hub that the Kurds have been skimming from for decades. At the beginning of ISIS' rampage, they took the city from Iraq, and the Kurds subsequently took the city from ISIS and have refused to leave.
Even if the Kurds were able to hold Kirkuk, though, it doesn't seem likely they'd be able to benefit from it - the oil pipelines in Kirkuk run through Turkey in the north and Iran in the east; both of which are strongly against Kurdish secession. If the Kurds were to try to secede and sell oil to support the new state, it stands to reason that Iran and Turkey would just 'turn off the taps' and they'd have no way to sell the oil being extracted. -
2017-10-12 at 12:02 AM UTC
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2017-10-12 at 5:26 AM UTCSYRIA - US/SDF are negotiating with ISIS in Raqqa, allowing them to leave the city and go be a problem for Assad in Deir Eizzor (it's been reported by many sources in Raqqa; locals, SDF and rebels) instead. According to those sources what's currently being negotiated is what weapons and equipment they're to be allowed to take with them. The US denies negotiating with ISIS, saying that they're discussing release of civilians with 'local tribal leaders'.
If ISIS were to leave the city in a convoy, the SAAF/RAAF would just pound the fuck out of them on the highway, so it seems likely that they'll be mixed in with the exodus refugees leaving the city once ISIS is no longer holding them as a shield. -
2017-10-12 at 5:45 AM UTCFucking LOL, I just read that the Halabja Kurds weren't allowed to vote in the referendum.
Why is this funny? Because Barzani keeps bringing up Saddam's attacks on the Kurds in the 80s and 90s, specifically the chemical attacks, as a reason for why Kurdistan needs to break away from Iraq.
The Halabja Kurds were the ones who were on the receiving end of those chemical attacks.
Barzani's group was allied with Saddam at the time. -
2017-10-12 at 4:47 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Fucking LOL, I just read that the Halabja Kurds weren't allowed to vote in the referendum.
Why is this funny? Because Barzani keeps bringing up Saddam's attacks on the Kurds in the 80s and 90s, specifically the chemical attacks, as a reason for why Kurdistan needs to break away from Iraq.
The Halabja Kurds were the ones who were on the receiving end of those chemical attacks.
Barzani's group was allied with Saddam at the time.
i realy want to see an independent kurdishthan. -
2017-10-12 at 7:54 PM UTC
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2017-10-12 at 7:58 PM UTC
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2017-10-14 at 7:43 PM UTCAldra I'd like an update about Turk troops in Syria and the deadline given to the Kurds in Kirkuk. Thanks
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2017-10-15 at 12:11 AM UTC
Originally posted by reject Aldra I'd like an update about Turk troops in Syria and the deadline given to the Kurds in Kirkuk. Thanks
will post more later but
1. A 'de-escalation zone' has been agreed upon around Idlib, where the bulk of the non-ISIS rebels now reside. Turkish military will enforce the ceasefire within the city as they have ties to the Turkmen locals and aren't seen as an enemy in the way Russians are. Russian MPs will patrol the outer regions.
2. Haven't read much about it these last few days and things are moving pretty fast, but the last thing I read was that the Iraqi military began reinforcing positions outside of Mosul and Kirkuk, and the Kurds saw it as a prelude to an attack and fell back.
In a general sense I don't see any way the Kurds will be able to keep Kirkuk - neither Iran or Turkey want an independent Kurdistan and could simply 'turn off the tap' should the Kurds try to sell oil from Kirkuk.
*** oh yeah I posted something very similar in #102. -
2017-10-16 at 1:23 AM UTCFucking lol, Trump pulled the US out of UNESCO because it's 'anti-israel'. He's also apparently decertified the Iran nuclear agreement, which points to two things:
1. NK will never, ever trust the US regardless of what they could possibly offer because they've now demonstrated they're not willing to hold to deals they've agreed to, specifically in the area of nuclear disarmament.
2. This is not going to affect Iran's behaviour whatsoever, which means Trump is just going to keep escalating and 'mounting pressure' until something does. Iran's been living under suffocating sanctions for decades, so nothing short of a military strike is going to get them to give up their deterrence against Israel - and it's likely to come to that.
IRAQ - KURDISTAN - There have been no large-scale or official battles, but there have been a few minor skirmishes. Source on the ground is saying that tribal leaders are arming civilians around Kirkuk, claiming it's for self-defence but ostensibly hoping for media coverage of 'Iraqi soldiers killing civilians'. Keep in mind this particular guy's been fairly accurate but every now and then floats some 'secret intelligence information' that doesn't make any goddamn sense. -
2017-10-16 at 1:25 AM UTCfuck shit I was wrong, Iraqi forces moving into the Kirkuk industrial district as of an hour ago, HEAVY artillery fire
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2017-10-16 at 1:31 AM UTC
Everything has its time and its not yet "kurd time"
- some kurd on facebook -
2017-10-16 at 1:55 AM UTC
kek -
2017-10-16 at 3:21 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Fucking lol, Trump pulled the US out of UNESCO because it's 'anti-israel'. He's also apparently decertified the Iran nuclear agreement, which points to two things:
1. NK will never, ever trust the US regardless of what they could possibly offer because they've now demonstrated they're not willing to hold to deals they've agreed to, specifically in the area of nuclear disarmament.
2. This is not going to affect Iran's behaviour whatsoever, which means Trump is just going to keep escalating and 'mounting pressure' until something does. Iran's been living under suffocating sanctions for decades, so nothing short of a military strike is going to get them to give up their deterrence against Israel - and it's likely to come to that.
i hope a major war breaks out soon. a two hundred years of peace is just way too long for humanity to endure and they start to do some crazy shits like doing refugee simulation where they lined up for days and nights to buy a cellphone or eat in some X michelin-starred restaurants. or running hundreds of km for no obvious reasons as if their escaping active genocide. or load up a 100pound backpack and go wade in some hell hole third world country as if their soldiers of the imperial forces tasked with guarding and monitoring the local population, shooting here and there with their advanced dslr and boarding in some old colonial buildings. and lots of other crazy shits like that.
what all these people are doing are simulated warr.
yes, i know its only been 70years since WW2 but the rampant advancement of technology and air travel, its as if we'd progressed hundreds of years since WW2 broke out.
IRAQ - KURDISTAN - Source on the ground is saying that tribal leaders(???) are arming civilians around Kirkuk, claiming it's for self-defence but ostensibly hoping for media coverage of 'Iraqi soldiers killing civilians'.
i think you better clarify whose tribal leaders your referring to as i was a little bit confused becos it happened in kirkuk, an iraqi town and i was wondering whether it was arab tribal leader or kurdish tribal leader. -
2017-10-16 at 4:07 AM UTC
Originally posted by benny vader i think you better clarify whose tribal leaders your referring to as i was a little bit confused becos it happened in kirkuk, an iraqi town and i was wondering whether it was arab tribal leader or kurdish tribal leader.
Kurdish tribal leaders.
Kurds have defacto control over Kirkuk because it was one of the first major cities ISIS took back when they were rampaging, then when the Iraqi army beat them back, the Kurds 'filled the gap' so to speak and moved their own forces into the vacuum. Barzani's talked about how 'ISIS has been a blessing to the Kurds' a few times.
SYRIA - There's apparently a lot more going on with Turkish involvement in the de-escalation zones - they're apparently 'manipulating' the terms of the Astana agreement and have brought 30 pieces of armor (Tanks/APCs/IFVs etc.) into Idlib with the Syrian government calling it a blatant violation of Syrian sovereignty. It seems likely that Turkey is reinforcing and protecting their terrorist assets in the region rather than enforcing a ceasefire.
I'm interested to see how Russia reacts to this; they'd probably like to peacefully whittle down Turkish will like they did with the Turks shooting their jet down, but the situation is too dynamic for that at the moment. -
2017-10-16 at 11:23 PM UTCPoor old Kurds. You were right, they'd get support whilst they were useful but as soon as that's done, their allies leave and they get shafted again by Iraq and the fucking Turks. Turkey should not be a member of NATO, they shouldn't be a member of anything except a terrorism watchlistThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2017-10-17 at 12:09 AM UTC
Originally posted by reject Poor old Kurds. You were right, they'd get support whilst they were useful but as soon as that's done, their allies leave and they get shafted again by Iraq and the fucking Turks. Turkey should not be a member of NATO, they shouldn't be a member of anything except a terrorism watchlist
Gotta keep in mind that support for Kurdistan to break away from Iraq is not nearly as high as the media, and Barzani, would have you believe.
There are two main Iraq-Kurdish factions; the Barzani clan and the Talabani. The referendum for Kurdistan declaring independence was a ridiculous pinata of fraud - I've seen unconfirmed reports the up to 70 million votes were counted in a region with ~4 million registered voters, social media was littered with pro-independence dongs with all 10 purple fingers (when you vote, they'd make you dip your thumb in indelible ink to indicate that you've already voted and should not be allowed back into the booths), many regions with low support for independence were officially barred from voting in the referendum, and there were widespread accusations of threats and intimidation, specifically in refugee camps aimed at people planning on voting 'no'.
The Talabani, and many others know that completely breaking ties with Iraq and trying to establish an independent state is a bad idea:
- Kurdistan is currently paying the bills by skimming around 20% of Iraq's energy profits. Some oil wells are in Kurdish territories, in other cases high-volume transit goes over Kurdish infrastructure.
- The only way for an independent Kurdistan to survive financially would've been to take Kirkuk and live off oil sales until they could develop their own industry - Kirkuk is one of Iraq's richest oil wells (along with other resources); there's no way Iraq would simply give it up. Their hold on the region was never legitimate; as mentioned before they simply moved in once ISIS were driven out. Further, their only exit ports to export the oil are in turkey and Iran, both countries that oppose fragmenting Iraq and would've blocked oil sales if it had gotten that far.
- A Kurdish state without the control and protection of Iraq so close to Turkey would be a scary place even if Turkey weren't currently being run by a schizophrenic §m£ÂgØL lookalike with a hard-on for rebuilding the Ottoman empire.
The Barzani clan, though, has long been subservient to US and Israeli interests. It's hard to say whether Barzani actually believes that the US/Israel will protect his people or whether he's just a puppet for their interests and doesn't care for the future of the Kurds at all. Given that he worked directly with Israel and Saddam during the Iran-Iraq war and Saddam's gas attacks against the Halabja Kurds, I'm thinking the latter is more likely. There are many photos floating around of him with upper-echelon Mossad agents and assorted Israeli politicians, as well as shady CIA characters.
The limited resistance the Iraqi army faced when moving to retake Kirkuk attests to this. Sources on the ground show that the majority of fighters were Barzani-clan and that they were quick to surrender when faced with the fact that Iraq was serious about not letting the country be fragmented, and that there was virtually no civilian unrest when the Iraqi army swept through. -
2017-10-17 at 1 AM UTC
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2017-10-17 at 2:18 AM UTCOh.
SYRIA - Israeli jet entered Syrian airspace from Lebanon, promptly caught a SAM and 'was forced to flee', hopefully vertically. I'd suspect it was a Pantsir that hit it considering an s-x00 is big enough that a direct hit would tear a jet apart mid-air, and the only fleeing it'd be doing would be in several opposing directions simultaneously.
jedis responded by attacking the site with standoff missiles from the Golan, SAA reported 'some material damage'.
