Conflict Shitpile III - Diplomacy Defunct Editionhttp://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3a13qe
Rundown as of 06/09/2017SYRIA
- ISIS is most certainly on the ropes; a joint operation involving the SAA and allies broke the siege on Deir Eizzor and drove ISIS from the region. They have nowhere to go in Syria given that Raqqa is under siege and a fallback to Deir Eizzor has been denied, but 'divine intervention' will likely save them from being crushed entirely as they're still valuable as a disruptive force in Central Asia against the Chinese-funded 'New Silk Roads'.
In terms of the Deir Eizzor operation, hardened ISIS positions were obliterated by Russian bombers and Kalibr TBMs, then SAA and Hezbullah commando units infiltrated ISIS positions via the airport, flanking the ISIS troops as the Tigers pushed them back.
Israel is throwing a tantrum; with ISIS being turned to paste their 'buffer zone' between them and the Syrian military is gone, prompting Netenyahu to threaten to 'bomb the palace at Damascus' if Iranian and Hezbullah forces do not leave Syria immediately. Assad more or less told him to get bent, and in response, Syria and Russia have integrated their anti-aircraft systems in the country. This means that everything from the Russian long-range S300/400s (with extremely powerful radar) at Tartus are able to share targeting data with the Syrian PANTSIR mobile anti-aircraft platforms hidden around the countryside and vice-versa, for example.YEMEN
- Yemen is still being starved by the head of the UNHRC - the two major ports, Hodeida and Aedan are blockaded by the Saudi coalition and neither food, medical supplies or fuel are being allowed through - as mentioned previously even supplies designated to UN missions are being blocked.
Even so, Yemen is far from being defeated - Saudi Arabia has no real army to speak of; in terms of ground forces they rely heavily on Central African mercenaries (Sudan and Somalia are the biggest providers) who are typically turned to mince by the now-heavily experienced Yemeni military, and even with the latest US and UK-manufactured munitions their pilots are woefully incapable and have committed numerous 'friendly fire' incidents as well as the truly staggering number of attacks on non-military targets.
The Yemeni military have been relying on TOCHKA-U TBMs for offensive attacks on Saudi installations - the forward training and operating base at Najran regularly comes under missile fire that KSA's Patriot batteries seem powerless to defend against, depleting the ranks of their mercenaries and lowering overall ability for KSA to train them. There were recently claims that Abu Dhabi had been struck with a missile attack, but the Yemeni military's claims were never corroborated.IRAQ
- The IA/ISOF are following a similar tempo as the SAA with their most current project being one of the last major ISIS-controlled regions in the country, Hawijah. At the moment military actions are limited to artillery strikes (and/or MLRS) and bombing runs, but a ground operation is awaiting commands to enter. Military operations into Anbar, a major ISIS stronghold have been taken off the table for the near future, likely due to US influence and desire to move ISIS out of the country for use elsewhere.LEBANON
- ISIS and the 'moderate jihadis' reporting to Al-Nusra Front have been crushed and driven from the country by Hezbullah amid a mess of dirty tricks.
When it became obvious that ISIS was unable to hold their ground, Lebanese intelligence made a deal with them - they would be allowed to leave the country and the SAA would organise for them (and their families) to be transported to the then-ISIS held area at Deir Eizzor in exchange for the release of several Lebanese soldiers captured at the beginning of the year. It's important to note that the SAA had nothing to do with striking the deal; Lebanese intelligence simply asked them to facilitate the transport of ISIS families.
It turned out that the soldiers in question were already dead. ISIS gave the location where their bodies were buried and popular opinion in Lebanon was outraged that such a bad deal was allowed to be agreed upon - the US (and a faction of the Lebanese government) attempted to shift the blame onto the SAA, and the 'green buses' transporting ISIS families were attacked by US bombers.
It also turns out that Lebanese intelligence knew the soldiers were dead, and the whole deal was a disguised operation to discredit the SAA and the Lebanese government.UKRAINE
- Some new developments here. After declaring that he'd completely lost faith in diplomacy with the US, Putin stated that he'd make a request to the UNSC to deploy a peacekeeping force to 'protect the OSCE observers' at the demarcation line between Ukraine and the breakaway Donetsk-Lughansk republics. Everyone knows that the coup-imposed Ukraine authorities have failed to withdraw artillery from the line (as stipulated by the Minsk Accords) and keep inching tanks and infantry further and further into Donetsk. The goal is to create a lose/lose situation for the US, something that had been avoided when there was a possibility for a diplomatic resolution because the embarassment it would cause would likely cause diplomacy to break down.
If the US blocks the security council resolution, they appear intensely hypocritical as they were instrumental in pushing for the Minsk Accords (even though they only ever wanted them to apply to the rebels). If they don't, then it becomes the UN's responsibility to reign in the Kiev government and stop them from further violating the accords.KOREAS
- Given the media's current bent, a US first-strike against NK is beginning to look likely. NK has apparently accelerated it's nuclear program given the large number of recent missile tests and the recent underground test of a (purportedly) hydrogen-bomb, but there's no solid proof of the US' claims that they do, in fact, have a nuclear warhead design that can feasibly be mounted on an ICBM. It's important to understand that NK will under no circumstances fire the first shot - a first-generation nuclear ICBM is not a weapon that will effectively win a war against the US - it's only value is as a deterrent, and as an aside the NK's military doctrine does not allow for a pre-emptive first strike.
A US first-strike would sign the death warrant of thousands of people in South Korea (conventional NK artillery could vaporise most military sites in SK in a matter of hours and are immune to jamming and interception) which is likely why it hasn't happened already - various think tanks and intelligence groups are now floating the idea that North Korea could sell nuclear warheads to Iran, and historically the US has been willing to make immense sacrifices for Israeli interests.
The title of this thread comes from the indication that Russian diplomats and indeed Vladimir Putin himself have signalled that they no longer have any faith in diplomacy with the United States - this complete systemic failure didn't even happen during the cold war, so we're breaking entirely new ground.Post last edited by aldra at 2017-09-06T07:10:49.721769+00:00