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Conflict Shitpile III - Diplomacy Defunct Edition
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2017-11-15 at 12:50 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra AN internal Saudi memo has been leaked - they apparently intend to use the 'Palestine Issue' to engender a military alliance with Israel. They'll legally recognise Israel as a legitimate state and drop all support for Palestine, declaring it a part of Israel, in return for Israel (and thus US) support against Iran and Hezbullah.
They also want nuclear parity with Israel - either Israel gives up it's nuclear weapons (lol) or KSA be allowed to have them. This... I have no idea how it'll go. It seems to me like so many of the recent military decisions made by the US government - neoconservatives think it's a brilliant idea but the military apparatus is terrified because they know it's possible it'll backfire in a spectacular way, and regardless of the image they try to sell they know that the US military is not omnipotent and will not always be capable of cleaning up the messes the government (and lobby) makes.
On the face of it, having two nuclear-armed allies in the middle east would make it much easier to enforce US policy on the region, but US allies are typically only alliances of convenience - Israel already only supports the US only as much as it takes to get an allowance, and KSA is nowhere near predictable, even without considering that a monarchy allows absolute power to be passed on to an heir with completely different ideas on how the country should operate. -
2017-11-15 at 12:58 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra AN internal Saudi memo has been leaked - they apparently intend to use the 'Palestine Issue' to engender a military alliance with Israel. They'll legally recognise Israel as a legitimate state and drop all support for Palestine, declaring it a part of Israel, in return for Israel (and thus US) support against Iran and Hezbullah.
War is coming fast; I've spoken to locals in Iraq and Syria who say the same thing, general chatter on twitter seems to convey the same feeling.
jesus christ...these fucking sand niggers.
this isnt as simplistic as the posts your making, as concise as they are. a full-blown war between iran and saudi is a more elaborate reason to cause a global conflict than the real causes (not the usual fake ones) of WW-I and WW-II.
i cant post all the aggregate explanations how sophisticated all the interweaving datapoints relate to each other...but some simplistic ones:
iran is bathhouse-buddies with that slant-eyed pudgy freak...from whom iran gets a very significant supply of its weapons and warfare-brain power. if iran starts getting knee-deep in the shit and makes nut-korea an offer he cant refuse...the pudge-freak could do anything.
the first item on irans to-do list is to shut down the straights of hormuz. that would be an economic death spiral for everyone.
saudis hate jedis. period. ive personally spoken with saudis and their outlook on jedi-land and the jedis make david duke sounds pro-semite. not exaggerating.
my first assessment is that somewhere towards the top of irans to-do list in a saudi war would be nuke the shit out of mecca and medina. i dont know what premise theyll use...or what excuse theyll use for after-the-fact.
my next assessment is how it will affect oil. as in...will production be wiped out? will POL-related facilities be considered non-targets by a mutual agreement between belligerence?
right now, based on everything i know, i dont see it becoming a direct iran/saudi hot-war. i see it staying a proxy war between their drones. drone being defined as the brainless servants.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2017-11-15 at 1:22 AM UTCBy war I specifically meant attacks on (and attempted occupation of) Lebanon, not an immediate direct war between KSA and Iran.
Given public support for Hezbullah though (keeping in mind that they've gotten almost unanimous support in times of war) and their direct ties to Iran, Iraq and Syria, I imagine it'd spread to a wider regional conflict pretty fast. -
2017-11-15 at 1:50 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra By war I specifically meant attacks on (and attempted occupation of) Lebanon, not an immediate direct war between KSA and Iran.
Given public support for Hezbullah though (keeping in mind that they've gotten almost unanimous support in times of war) and their direct ties to Iran, Iraq and Syria, I imagine it'd spread to a wider regional conflict pretty fast.
ill go with attacks/occupation of lebanon. that place is a shithole anyways. -
2017-11-15 at 2:55 AM UTCfucking lol:
Mugabe says as tanks roll into the capital. The last part is a nice touch - there is no coup now GO AWAY STOP ASKING -
2017-11-15 at 6:55 PM UTC
Originally posted by infinityshock my first assessment is that somewhere towards the top of irans to-do list in a saudi war would be nuke the shit out of mecca and medina. i dont know what premise theyll use…or what excuse theyll use for after-the-fact.
never going to happen.
thats just like saying trump would order tactical nuclear strike on childrens hospital full of babies and pandas. -
2017-11-15 at 6:57 PM UTC
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2017-11-16 at 1:10 AM UTCSYRIA - Should've mentioned this the other day but only now dug out details - US SOF are apparently attempting to block (or at least delay) the SAA from taking the last ISIS stronghold in Syria, al-Bukamal. Both the SAA and Hezbullah have reported that US units are using ECM to interfere with radio communications and will not allow SAAF aircraft into the airspace, though I haven't been able to find reliable data on either.
The Russian MoD released several aerial/satellite photos that were widely spread on social media, government and personal accounts alike - they purportedly depicted ISIS convoys leaving al-Bukamal supported by US vehicles, but they have been discovered as fake.
This is strange given that I don't know of any other Syrian war media that they've released being faked and this is not a 'key turning point' where twisting public opinion would be worth the risk of getting caught, but I don't see how it could've been a 'false flag' or similar - the media originated from multiple Russian Government social media accounts and the MoD isn't about to just pass on someone else's unverified aerial photos as fact. -
2017-11-16 at 1:13 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra SYRIA - Should've mentioned this the other day but only now dug out details - US SOF are apparently attempting to block (or at least delay) the SAA from taking the last ISIS stronghold in Syria, al-Bukamal. Both the SAA and Hezbullah have reported that US units are using ECM to interfere with radio communications and will not allow SAAF aircraft into the airspace, though I haven't been able to find reliable data on either.
The Russian MoD released several aerial/satellite photos that were widely spread on social media, government and personal accounts alike - they purportedly depicted ISIS convoys leaving al-Bukamal supported by US vehicles, but they have been discovered as fake.
This is strange given that I don't know of any other Syrian war media that they've released being faked and this is not a 'key turning point' where twisting public opinion would be worth the risk of getting caught, but I don't see how it could've been a 'false flag' or similar - the media originated from multiple Russian Government social media accounts and the MoD isn't about to just pass on someone else's unverified aerial photos as fact.
Might be an independent actor trying to discredit Russia et al. -
2017-11-16 at 1:18 AM UTCThat's what I would have guessed, but the images seem to have originated from the Russian MoD and I really don't see them just accepting random aerial photos as conclusive without verifying them. It's times like this it'd be useful to be able to read Russian because if it is some sort of false-flag or black-flag PR operation you can bet that the important information is not being translated and reported on.
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2017-11-16 at 1:21 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra That's what I would have guessed, but the images seem to have originated from the Russian MoD and I really don't see them just accepting random aerial photos as conclusive without verifying them. It's times like this it'd be useful to be able to read Russian because if it is some sort of false-flag or black-flag PR operation you can bet that the important information is not being translated and reported on.
Get chummy with some Ruskis on FB to get the SITREP. -
2017-11-16 at 1:24 AM UTC
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2017-11-16 at 1:30 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra most of the really knowledgable ones use livejournal for some reason
Weird. I actually know someone that speaks Russian but i can't ask them to go ahead and translate a bunch of articles. They'll say: u wot m8?
That said, it's not ideal but you could maybe Google translate some stuff you come across? -
2017-11-16 at 1:31 AM UTCWonder if Dargo could translate it
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2017-11-16 at 1:32 AM UTC
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2017-11-16 at 1:36 AM UTCEither way there's just too much material. I am able to use Google Translate if I know an article is going to be useful but just for digging around and trying to find general information? That'd be a nightmare.
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2017-11-16 at 1:37 AM UTC
Originally posted by benny vader never going to happen.
thats just like saying trump would order tactical nuclear strike on childrens hospital full of babies and pandas.
you know nothing about the interactions and motivations of the various sects of muhammadanism and your analogy is like comparing apples to absolutely nothing because there is no relation whatsoever. none at all. not even a little bit.
sectarian violence is infinitely more pronounced in muhammadism than christianity yet look at the strife and bloodshed theyve caused amongst themselves.
stfu and dont comment on topics you know exactly jack and shit about. -
2017-11-16 at 1:38 AM UTCClosing the strait is extreme by any measure; I expect it'd be one of the last things they do if they have no other options
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2017-11-16 at 1:39 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra SYRIA - Should've mentioned this the other day but only now dug out details - US SOF are apparently attempting to block (or at least delay) the SAA from taking the last ISIS stronghold in Syria, al-Bukamal. Both the SAA and Hezbullah have reported that US units are using ECM to interfere with radio communications and will not allow SAAF aircraft into the airspace, though I haven't been able to find reliable data on either.
The Russian MoD released several aerial/satellite photos that were widely spread on social media, government and personal accounts alike - they purportedly depicted ISIS convoys leaving al-Bukamal supported by US vehicles, but they have been discovered as fake.
This is strange given that I don't know of any other Syrian war media that they've released being faked and this is not a 'key turning point' where twisting public opinion would be worth the risk of getting caught, but I don't see how it could've been a 'false flag' or similar - the media originated from multiple Russian Government social media accounts and the MoD isn't about to just pass on someone else's unverified aerial photos as fact.
i liked the one with the video game screen-shots.
nothing more entertaining than fake-news that is discredited to the point of side-splitting laughter.
the russkies must be using Bill Krozby as their media consultant.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2017-11-16 at 1:41 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Closing the strait is extreme by any measure; I expect it'd be one of the last things they do if they have no other options
that would be the first thing they do.
they do that shit on a regular basis for no reason at all...imagine they really get pissed off.
they have enough mines to expend zero effort at shutting down the shipping lanes while getting a return of 100% since no insurer would cover any ships sailing thru the straights.
