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Conflict Shitpile II - Sarin-like Substance Edition
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2017-06-11 at 8:24 AM UTCSYRIA - A few less-important things -
The Sultan-Murad group has more or less collapsed, another 50 defected, among many more FSA defections.
SAA are making solid progress against Deir Eizzor, it begs the question that if ISIS are allowed to evacuate Raqqa, where will they go? I suspect that given the SDF's ties with the SAA, the SAA will know if convoys start leaving Raqqa and they'll get torn apart by the SAAF/RUAF. -
2017-06-11 at 1:14 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra SYRIA - A few less-important things -
The Sultan-Murad group has more or less collapsed, another 50 defected, among many more FSA defections.
SAA are making solid progress against Deir Eizzor, it begs the question that if ISIS are allowed to evacuate Raqqa, where will they go? I suspect that given the SDF's ties with the SAA, the SAA will know if convoys start leaving Raqqa and they'll get torn apart by the SAAF/RUAF.
same thing that happened in yugoslavia...they'll dissolve and individual soldiers will integrate into other factionsThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2017-06-11 at 4:56 PM UTC
Originally posted by infinityshock same thing that happened in yugoslavia…they'll dissolve and individual soldiers will integrate into other factions
ugh, probably. I was thinking more of them trying to persist as a fighting force, but it'd make sense considering they're now rejecting new fighters and telling them to stay where they are to launch domestic attacks in the future.
Also, rebel infighting is EXPLODING around the country. They know their supply lines are fucked and it's become a race to the bottom. -
2017-06-14 at 5:07 AM UTC
According to ISIS channels, the latest chatter indicates that its jihadists are "preparing for martyrdom" in Raqqa city.
They're being overrun in Raqqa and they're not going to be able to fall back to Deir Eizzor; further, the US will not be able to stop the SAA or even the SDF from obliterating ISIS convoys that attempt to leave the city... I'd doubt they mean to 'fight to the end' either.
It seems more likely to me that they have something planned to make the city uninhabitable if they can't have it. I hope I'm overreacting. -
2017-06-16 at 5:58 AM UTCGERMANY, AUSTRIA - Europe is finally starting to see that the Russian-Iranian sanctions are created simply for the economic benefit of the US and that they're getting the shaft.
The US has planned further sanctions against any entity doing business with the Russian or Iranian energy sector, ostensibly aimed at pipeline construction meant to bypass the (highly unstable and constantly stolen-from) South Stream that passes through the Ukraine and just generally reduce transit costs.
This is the first time (recently) I'm aware of that the European powers have publicly criticised US foreign policy as opposed to just quietly tagging along, self-destructive as they often are,
https://www.rt.com/news/392483-germany-austria-us-sanctions-russia/ -
2017-06-19 at 2:16 AM UTCI've still been watching the situations in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine but haven't posted much lately.
White Phosphorous - The US has apparently admitted to using White phosphorous in Mosul, but not Raqqa. I've heard that WP rounds weren't included in their loadout lists but from photos and video from the ground, it's hard to think of anything else it could be.
As an aside, there seem to be just as many rabid idealogues on Syria's side (as opposed to those who think US intervention is warranted) - Vanessa Bealey posted something about WP and I asked if there was any evidence that it was used, a bunch of mongs wrote furious walls of text about depleted uranium instead and didn't even try to provide evidence.
IRAQ - The Iraqi army has punched into the 'Old City', Mosul proper, via the stadium. If progress continues at this rate they'll be done with ISIS very soon.
SYRIA - As reported previously, the SAA outmaneuvred the US SOF and FSA stationed at Al-Tanf to close the border - in response the US deployed their HIMARS rocket artillery to the base. It's of little use against ISIS or Al-Nusra since they don't hold any major positions within it's 70km range, and outside of general harassment it doesn't seem like it'd be particularly effective against the SAA.
The US has apparently shot down a SAAF jet (confirmed by both parties) - the SAAF was conducting operations against ISIS in the countryside south of Raqqa, and it was shot down on the pretext that it had bombed close to 'SDF' Kurds. SAAF attacking Kurds doesn't make any sense at all considering they're allies and for the most part, the Kurds trust the SAA and RUAF far more than the US (not least of all because they came to the rescue when the US essentially left them to Turkey).
That leaves it either being an accident, or nothing to do with the Kurds at all, which is what I'm betting on - this is the US telling the SAA to stay away from Raqqa, which they can't do. If they let the US control the situation, they'll try to turn it into a 'peacekeeping operation' and have the north of Syria secede...
The US declared war on Syria a long time ago, but the SAA hasn't been in a position to respond to the constant aggression until now - with control of their borders, the rebels no longer have consistent supplies and as a result, have been torn apart by infighting. Once they clean out Deir Eizzor, there's nowhere for them to go except Raqqa and through this act of aggression, the 'coalition' may have declared open season on themselves. -
2017-06-19 at 4:11 AM UTC
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2017-06-19 at 5:54 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra That leaves it either being an accident, or nothing to do with the Kurds at all, which is what I'm betting on - this is the US telling the SAA to stay away from Raqqa, which they can't do. If they let the US control the situation, they'll try to turn it into a 'peacekeeping operation' and have the north of Syria secede…
it gets even more murky.
The alleged bombing run occurred at the village of Jay'Deen to the west of Al-Raqqa proper; the entire village was held by ISIS and has been under siege by the SAA for the last few days. There are no SDF positions in the area, so they were either never there or they moved directly into the SAA's frontline.
The Western media has been going all-out these last few weeks, bombarding us with literally unknown 'SDF commanders' claiming that the SAA is their enemy. As above, I suspect that this exaggeration is to give the impression of coherence and commitment to the regime-change operation, and that the units who are currently being used against the SAA are more than likely Iraqi Kurds. -
2017-06-19 at 1:57 PM UTCRussia has shut down the remaining 'deconfliction' lines and advised any unauthorised aircraft east of the Euphrates will be targeted by their SAMs and ECWs and treated as hostile.
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2017-06-19 at 2:22 PM UTCI saw some videos on liveleak of the the white phosphorus and it really didn't seem to do much damage. Mostly just alot of smoke, why don't they use real bombs?
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2017-06-19 at 3:20 PM UTC
Originally posted by fag I saw some videos on liveleak of the the white phosphorus and it really didn't seem to do much damage. Mostly just alot of smoke, why don't they use real bombs?
White phosphorous is effective in the same ways chemical weapons are, they just don't call it that - a direct hit will essentially melt you, but it's used indirectly in order to 'smoke out' enemies that are dug in, like in a city or a fort. Even indirect exposure can cause heinous respiratory issues.
Apparently the goal of shooting down that Su-22 was to stop the Tigers (SAA vanguard) from taking the crossroads at the town of Resafa, which is where they were headed - they meant to take the town of Jay'Deen (where the plane was shot down) and use it as a staging area for an attack on Resafa, but the US seems to mean to stop them from advancing to give the SDF time to take the crossroads instead... They apparently do not want the SAA controlling one of the main supply lines/escape vectors to Raqqa City. -
2017-06-19 at 4:40 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra IRAQ - This video came out of a medical station at Mosul; they obviously didn't have the means to treat the guy so were trying to stabilise him on his way to the hospital. They had no idea what had happened to him initially, but it was apparently discovered later on that an unknown chemical weapon had been tested on him.
Pretty graphic. It's only worth watching to the 3-minute mark, the rest is just him bumping around delirious in the ambulance.
What would do that? He doesn't seem to be losing muscle control like an organophosphate compound typically does; it just seems like he's weak from blood loss. Doesn't look like Mustard or Chlorine which is popular among militants in the region… It almost looks like he swallowed razors or nails or something.
weaponized spice/bath salts. -
2017-06-20 at 4:45 AM UTCSYRIA - So I had a short exchange with Vanessa Beeley last night and she schooled me on the Kurds/SDF... Apparently my belief that the SDF is made up of different factions with different ideologies is no longer realistic. Even though there was strong support for Russia and the SAA among the different factions in the past, roughly 80% of the SDF is now comprised solely of the YPGs, a well-organised militia with a standard military heirarchy, and whose commanders are firmly in the pocket of the US.
That is to say that they can and will be used to push for a Kurdish state, and when (yes, when) it comes to an open conflict with the SAA, there will be minimal dissent in the ranks.
We are headed for a major clash between the SAA and the SDF and by extension, the US and Russia - I can't see any possible way it can be avoided anymore. -
2017-06-20 at 6:08 AM UTCI wouldn't be surprised if there was a kurdish civil war in the near future, KCK aligned vs Barzanist kurds (with possible backing by turkey which would be a little ironic).
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2017-06-20 at 6:35 AM UTCI'd not even heard of the KCK, they were called the KKK up until 2007 though, lel.
Russia is now treating all US/allied aircraft as hostile by default; they've stated that any unidentified aircraft spotted east of the Euphrates is getting an S400 lock in case it begins acting aggressively. In case of open conflict, the Russian AA missiles will effectively close Syrian airspace. As far as I know there's little - if any - Russian AA artillery in the country, but the SAA should have plenty in sensitive locations in order to drive any low-flying attackers into SAM-lock altitude.
If the US air force is grounded or crippled, they're likely to flood the SDF with MANPADs in order to counteract Russian air power, making it largely a ground battle. Wildcards here would be the US' HIMARS MLRS units which can serve the same general purpose as a ballistic missile (though the only units in the country are currently way out of range at Al-Tanf) and Iran's SRBMs/TBMs as they demonstrated with a fairly impressive barrage against ISIS last week. The Gulf states already have their hands full with Yemen so it's unlikely they'll be deeply involved, and Israel will likely stay out of the conflict proper and use it as a distraction for another land grab in the Golan.
Syria, Iran and Hezbullah will ally themselves with Turkey against the Kurds (Turkey will likely backstab them but not until the Kurds are crushed) making it an extremely bloody mess that the Kurds are unable to win and unlikely to survive at all, at which point the US will begin accusing the others of genocide and assorted other war crimes in an attempt to drum up support for an 'international peacekeeping mission' to continue with their plans of fragmenting Syria
Post last edited by aldra at 2017-06-20T17:10:39.681623+00:00 -
2017-06-20 at 7:01 AM UTCThis isn't really related to anything but the joos, but this post https://tinyurl.com/y9yy77x6 and the article/study? it cites (https://tinyurl.com/6pjnjvh) says the Israelis basically mindfucked themselves in Leb06. with some retarded doctrine. I don't know about the veracity but I did get a pretty good kick out of it.
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2017-06-20 at 7:23 AM UTC
Originally posted by Nil This isn't really related to anything but the joos, but this post https://tinyurl.com/y9yy77x6 and the article/study? it cites (https://tinyurl.com/6pjnjvh) says the Israelis basically mindfucked themselves in Leb06. with some retarded doctrine. I don't know about the veracity but I did get a pretty good kick out of it.
skimmed over the first one, not going to read 105 pages of the second.
It reads the same way as most western or pro-Israel analyses of Israeli combat failures - 'Israel has one of the best armies in the world except for this detail'. In the first post they present the high-level combat doctrine as a major issue, but even in the quotes they provide it's only listed as a relatively minor issue - the whole first paragraph of the long quote speaks of discipline, trust and general competence.
There are two things that really fucked them -
1. Effective AA strategies will always trump an effective air force, dollar for dollar.*
2. Hezbullah were much better trained and disciplined than they ever seem to be given credit for. The best-equipped Hezbullah units never even saw combat.
*I'll get the different conflicts in order before I elaborate on that, but basically -
the US lost up to 10,000 aircraft to then-current Soviet air defences in Vietnam.
Israel suffered a similar fate when their air force first attacked Syria - they were able to succeed the next time because the SAA of the time were extremely sloppy when it came to tactics around AA defences, ie. never moving mobile defences, not placing them correctly, erecting radar units in valleys instead of on hills because it was more convenient etc. -
2017-06-20 at 7:58 PM UTCwaiting for north korea coming into play ...
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2017-06-20 at 8:51 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra I'd not even heard of the KCK, they were called the KKK up until 2007 though, lel.
Russia is now treating all US/allied aircraft as hostile by default; they've stated that any unidentified aircraft spotted east of the Euphrates is getting an S400 lock in case it begins acting aggressively. In case of open conflict, the Russian AA missiles will effectively close Syrian airspace. As far as I know there's little - if any - Russian AA artillery in the country, but the SAA should have plenty in sensitive locations in order to drive any low-flying attackers into SAM-lock altitude.
If the US air force is grounded or crippled, they're likely to flood the SDF with MANPADs in order to counteract Russian air power, making it largely a ground battle. Wildcards here would be the US' HIMARS MLRS units which can serve the same general purpose as a ballistic missile (though the only units in the country are currently way out of range at Al-Tanf) and Iran's SRBMs/TBMs as they demonstrated with a fairly impressive barrage against ISIS last week. The Gulf states already have their hands full with Yemen so it's unlikely they'll be deeply involved, and Israel will likely stay out of the conflict proper and use it as a distraction for another land grab in the Golan.
Syria, Iran and Hezbullah will ally themselves with Turkey against the Kurds (Turkey will likely backstab them but not until the Kurds are crushed) making it an extremely bloody mess that the Kurds are unable to win and unlikely to survive at all, at which point the US will begin accusing the others of genocide and assorted other war crimes in an attempt to drum up support for an 'international peacekeeping mission' to continue with their plans of fragmenting Syria
Post last edited by aldra at 2017-06-20T17:10:39.681623+00:00
if the US loses air superiority, so will RS...however there are other means (many, many types of drones, cruise missiles) the US has at its disposal to project power. -
2017-06-21 at 2:22 AM UTC
Originally posted by infinityshock if the US loses air superiority, so will RS…however there are other means (many, many types of drones, cruise missiles) the US has at its disposal to project power.
Yeah, Russia's been specifically developing ECWs and SAMs to counter those threats but so far they're largely untested in actual combat, so I guess we'll get to see how effective they are...
SYRIA - US SOF are scouting west of Raqqa for facilities that can be repurposed as barracks and military installations; the implication being that the US is preparing to send a much larger ground force than they'd previously committed.
