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Posts by Speedy Parker
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2020-02-20 at 5:33 PM UTC in Run My Life...
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2020-02-20 at 5:31 PM UTC in Trump is going down.
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2020-02-20 at 5:27 PM UTC in the big pyramid has eight sides
Originally posted by Jiggaboo_Johnson Well no not as above so below, If you zoom in far enough you have a flat surface…even on the most perfectly round sphere, a point of space has no dimension.
Just saying no to a statement is not an argument. The earth looks flat up close until you zoom out. Have you zoomed into infinity? -
2020-02-20 at 5:25 PM UTC in Trump is going down.
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2020-02-20 at 5:24 PM UTC in ACQUITTED FOREVER
Originally posted by MexicanMasterRace Dementia is a bitch. We understand. Back on topic it goes.
Originally posted by MexicanMasterRace It's "Who am I", Grandpa.
And you're you! Grandpa Parker. You have a disease called dementia that makes you forget sometimes, but it's okay. Everyone is here for you.
If you are having trouble following yourself perhaps there are too many of you in there. -
2020-02-20 at 5:21 PM UTC in Hey Star Trek imagine working in a Polish companyImagine OP working anywhere but a prison laundry room.
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2020-02-20 at 5:14 PM UTC in Why does CandyRein crave everyone's acceptance & approval?
Originally posted by MexicanMasterRace this is the kind of shit retards like you say when they don't understand the timeline because they're meme'ing instead of a hardworking member of this community
hydro wanted to be a prostitute when she was with me. I would not let her.
Then she wanted to be a prostitute when she was with POC. He would not let her.
Finally she got with 1337 and wanted to be a prostitute. He said go for it.
At this point is when she lied about having AIDS and ended up getting addicted to heroin instead of T-PAIN. This was a good 2 year gap from when I left her 4 years ago. I would have never been with a prostitute, homeless person, or heroin addict.
Also never fell in love I basically just stuck around for the kid and left the moment I had evidence he wasn't mine.
Was that when the dick you took in your ass told you that you were raising his kid. -
2020-02-20 at 5:13 PM UTC in 🍬🍬Candy~Land🍬🍬
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2020-02-20 at 5:12 PM UTC in Why does CandyRein crave everyone's acceptance & approval?
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2020-02-20 at 5:11 PM UTC in the big pyramid has eight sides
Originally posted by Jiggaboo_Johnson Um the point was to zoom in, not zoom out…"if you zoom in far enough everything is flat" was the comment…zooming out just gives the illusion of curvature (or a point)..that is an illusion.
As above so below. You are missing the forest for the bugs on the leaves. -
2020-02-20 at 4:17 PM UTC in 🍬🍬Candy~Land🍬🍬
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2020-02-20 at 4:13 PM UTC in 🍬🍬Candy~Land🍬🍬
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2020-02-20 at 4:12 PM UTC in Random image thread
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2020-02-20 at 4:11 PM UTC in Doing away with my desktop
Originally posted by SBTlauien For 2020 I'm planning on getting rid of my desk(which is really old) in my room and moving my desktop PC, printer, monitor, and other items on my current desk, to a tall industrial rack that I'm getting for a smaller area in my room. If I need to use my desktop PC(which I rarely have been lately. Only used it about four times last year), then I can just stand while using it. I'm not sure what I'll place in the place where my current desk is.
I can do everything on my laptops and I really don't need a desktop PC anymore. Has anyone else consider doing this, or even done this?
My last desktop PC was 2011. I have been using laptops for everything since then. -
2020-02-20 at 4:08 PM UTC in Random image thread
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2020-02-20 at 4 PM UTC in 🍬🍬Candy~Land🍬🍬My mother is a Pisces and she is none of those things.
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2020-02-20 at 3:59 PM UTC in the big pyramid has eight sides
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2020-02-20 at 3:58 PM UTC in Why does CandyRein crave everyone's acceptance & approval?
Originally posted by Bill Krozby Yeah I know its really screwed me up. over the last 6 months I've cut it out for a week or so a few times and still wasn't going to sleep, so I thought that I should just drink less but I'll mess it up and start drinking more.
kinda afraid i'll have a seizure or something from just stopping because its happened before.
Replace the drinking with pushups. Do 20 or as many as you can every 90 minutes about 8 times to 10 time per day. I'm not kidding. -
2020-02-20 at 3:54 PM UTC in Dump idiot Trump
Originally posted by RottenRobert
Fifty two percent of Americans support removing President Trump from office through impeachment, according to a new poll by Gallup.
This is the highest level of support found for removing Trump since the Ukraine scandal broke. In fact, backing for Trump’s impeachment has far surpassed the public support for the impeachment of President Bill Clinton, and is edging into territory not seen since the 1970s, when Nixon stepped down from the presidency after support for impeachment spiked at 58 percent. “The level of support for Trump being impeached and removed,” Gallup reports, “is higher than it was for Nixon in all but the final poll before he resigned.”
Just re-read the OP and had to chuckle as I had just read this.Gallup has never been very good at presidential polling
October 7, 2015
Tim Fernholz
Senior reporter
The political world is aghast today that Gallup has yet to start polling the 2016 presidential primary and seem unlikely to do so during the 2016 general election, apparently because it lacks faith in its methodology.
While Gallup’s name recognition will inevitably spur speculation that public opinion polling is inherently broken, it’s important to remember that the venerable firm has never actually been that accurate in calling presidential races.
Consider the work of 538’s Nate Silver, who compares pollsters to the results at the end of every presidential cycle. Currently, Gallup gets a C+. In 2012, Gallup was the least accurate of all polls he analyzed, with an average error of 7.2 percentage points. In 2008, Gallup was in the bottom half of the list, with an average error of 2.4 percentage points.
Here’s a chart that shows the poll’s own self-reported deviation after each election for the last eight presidential cycles. While 2012 is the first election where the poll incorrectly predicted the winner (in 2000, its final poll was a tie between the candidates in one of the closest elections in US history), it’s clear that the Gallup poll is not gospel. Indeed, larger deviations in the early nineties were masked by landslide wins that allowed Gallup to be “right” about the race while inaccurately predicting the result.
There’s no doubt that public opinion polling has become more difficult. In part that’s because fewer people have land-line phones, and those who do are less willing to respond to pollsters, making the construction of a representative sample a challenge. But the bigger issue for Gallup and other pollsters is the difficulty of creating an accurate mathematical model, to adjust survey responses based on their predictions for who will actually vote. Making that prediction isn’t easy.
During the 2012 election, Gallup was criticized by the Obama campaign for over-weighting Republican voters and under-counting minorities, renters, and young voters. In a post-mortem after election day, the company essentially admitted that the criticisms were accurate. Based on its decision to sit out 2016, the organization still isn’t confident in its new approach.
It’s this failure of modeling that contributes most to inaccurate polling. Mitt Romney’s campaign staff were surprised to lose in 2012 because they thought that minorities would not turn out in large numbers, and weighted their polling accordingly. The Obama campaign’s internal model turned out to be correct, and his aides knew that he won hours before voting ended.
In the 2014 legislative election, pollsters made the opposite error by over-weighting Democratic turn-out. But they still were able to effectively call the winner of the race. In fact, the average polling error today is much lower than it was in the nineties and early 2000s.
Pollsters are still figuring out how to first figure out who the electorate is, and just as importantly, get in touch with them. Some public opinion firms and news organizations seem to be figuring out the right mix, and efforts by data-focused journalists at 538, Huffington Post, and Real Clear Politics, among others, to aggregate and average these polls has likely increased the accuracy of public opinion polling compared to previous decades.
If Gallup—and the similarly prestigious public opinion research institution Pew—continue to back away from head-to-head candidate polls, it might actually be a good thing. There are many, many pollsters out their trying to gauge who will win. But it might be nice to get away from the horse-race for a while to think (and poll) about more substantive issues.
Source: https://qz.com/519196/gallup-has-never-been-very-good-at-presidential-polling/ -
2020-02-20 at 3:41 PM UTC in the big pyramid has eight sides
