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Conflict Shitpile IV - Idlib Dawn Edition
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2018-10-22 at 6:20 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra http://www.stalkerzone.org/ukrainian-nazis-seized-a-temple-of-the-ukrainian-orthodox-church-in-western-ukraine/
It's already started.
The Kiev Patriarchate is now drafting orders marking Russian Orthodox churches as illegitimate and giving the government the authority to seize them.
In Idlib, Turkey claims success in removing HTS and other 'extreme' elements from the exclusion zone around the province in accordance with the agreement to suspend military actions against Idlib, but there have been at least three documented mortar attacks against Aleppo from within that zone in the last two weeks so it seems their influence isn't as great as they say. -
2018-10-22 at 9:29 PM UTCThat's just part of the nationalist Ukrainian identity campaign porky has been undertaking for the last cpl years. I fucking wish the dpr managed to get marioupol, it would have changed so much.
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2018-10-23 at 6:33 PM UTC
Originally posted by Sudo That's just part of the nationalist Ukrainian identity campaign porky has been undertaking for the last cpl years. I fucking wish the dpr managed to get marioupol, it would have changed so much.
No this required foreign authority. I don't know the background but the Patriarchate in Istanbul/Constantinople (which is apparently considered authoritive by many) has induced this schism and essentially given the state-controlled Ukrainian Orthodox Church sole legitimacy in the country. I don't know if this had anything to do with Porky's machinations; it actually seems a few points above his IQ level and several more above his pay grade.
1. The US is intent on reneging on the INF treaty which essentially banned short and midrange nuclear-capable missiles in Europe for both the US and Russia. I don't believe this to be terribly significant in practical terms as both parties have had the ability to launch an unstoppable first-strike for some time now (the US being able to potentially launch nuclear and cruise missiles from 'defensive' batteries in Europe and Russia possessing ICBMs that have sufficient range and avoidance characteristics to bypass US defensive arrays), and perhaps more importantly the role traditionally played by TBMs/SRBMs has largely been usurped by drone warfare which is not covered under the agreement. News outlets are hyping a 'new cold war', but I suspect it's just a gambit to increase US 'defence' spending.
2. israel is planning to send tanks into Gaza again. They've recently intensified their 'settlement' campaigns (a euphemism for driving Arabs off of their land to set up jedi communities) which prompted several retaliatory missile strikes. The Defence Minister has now stated that there is 'no other option but war' and that 'there is no widespread discontent and any protests were staged by and paid for by Hamas' after photos of Merkava tanks and APCs being lined up on the border began to emerge. I'll start following this more closely as there's a strong chance of escalation. -
2018-10-23 at 6:48 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra In Idlib, Turkey claims success in removing HTS and other 'extreme' elements from the exclusion zone around the province in accordance with the agreement to suspend military actions against Idlib, but there have been at least three documented mortar attacks against Aleppo from within that zone in the last two weeks so it seems their influence isn't as great as they say.
Widespread reports that Idlib Dawn is being reheated and prepared. Reported timeframe varies. -
2018-10-25 at 9:47 AM UTCOh wow
Russian MoD has released a report that the 17 attack drones which attempted to bomb the Kheimim base in Syria in January (pretty sure I posted about it - all were neutralised, a few were forced to land by ECM and the rest were intercepted by PANTSIR units) were actually being guided by a POSEIDEN-8 UAV that was observed in the area. There were questions raised at the time as to whether the UAV was involved or if it's path was purely coincidental, but no official word was given either way. -
2018-10-28 at 9:53 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Oh wow
Russian MoD has released a report that the 17 attack drones which attempted to bomb the Kheimim base in Syria in January (pretty sure I posted about it - all were neutralised, a few were forced to land by ECM and the rest were intercepted by PANTSIR units) were actually being guided by a POSEIDEN-8 UAV that was observed in the area. There were questions raised at the time as to whether the UAV was involved or if it's path was purely coincidental, but no official word was given either way.
Turn on English subtitles if they're not on by default.
From what I can tell, little has been said officially about the incident; VVP is waiting for the upcoming meeting with Trump in Paris before making any decisions on the topic (aside from the obvious secret operational changes to forces in Syria to stop it from happening in the future). -
2018-10-28 at 10:17 AM UTCAlso, according to this (RT), France and Germany are on board with the Astana (Syria, Russia, Turkey, Iran) process to rebuild Syria, the following six points being agreed upon (Verbally I guess? I don't think an agreement was signed).
Only political solution for Syria
I'm not really sure what they mean by this given that terrorists/militants still hold significant areas, and that it was acknowledged further down that they will need to be defeated militarily.
Need to start work on constitution in Geneva
I don't see this actually happening. It's absurd to think that anyone but Syrians should write their constitution, and if the west at large (ie. much of Europe or the US) takes part it's almost guaranteed to contain clauses that allow 'international' or foreign law to supersede Syrian law, much like what happened to the 1993 Russian constitution. I suspect that this was something Merkel and Macaroni pushed for but Assad has no intention of actually implementing.
No to division of Syria
Turkey agreeing to this is interesting because many think (for good reason) that Erdogan's endgame has always been to take a chunk of Syria as his own contribution to a 'New Ottoman Empire'. The Europeans agreeing to this will hopefully stop them from supporting US forces in the Northeast, but I'd doubt it, especially since the UK was not involved in the conference.
Keep ceasefire & defeat terrorists
It's coming to be one or the other. 'Keeping the Ceasefire', specifically around Idlib is fast becoming untenable - for several days now militants in the 'exclusion zone' have shelled Aleppo with mortars to the degree where the SAA has begun recalling units from missions in other areas to defend (and likely prepare to participate in retaking Idlib).
Boost humanitarian aid
Fair enough. US and European aid has previously gone almost exclusively to 'rebel' held areas; this is likely a concession Germany/France are making to try and get themselves lucrative contracts in rebuilding Syria (after playing no small role in ruining it).
Help return of refugees
The majority of refugees in Syria were internally displaced and were 'returned' when government forces retook their homes from the 'moderate rebels' they fled from. Foreign refugees are largely militant families who fear being shunned or extra-judicially punished (Assad has extended amnesty to militants who have not been identified as complicit in serious crimes like massacres of civilians or chemical attacks) if and when they return to Syria, or not Syrian at all - due to the EU's absurd adherence to political correctness, border guards and refugee intake bureaus essentially have to take applicants at their word as to what their originating country was - even if they're unable to name their home city, can't speak the language or are midnight black.
Internationally observed elections
lol. You won't hear it from western media, but Syria did have internationally-recognised elections in 2016 - Assad won. There were (from memory) observers from 8 European countries as well as Russia, China and a few others, and all said the elections appeared to be fair and proceeded according to international standards. Oh, except for the US. Who didn't send an observer.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2018-11-22 at 7:05 AM UTCI thought olive branch was just an ironic name not a literal description.
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2018-11-25 at 9:31 AM UTCSyria - Ceasefire is over. 'Rebels' just shelled Aleppo with chlorine gas.
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2018-11-25 at 11:57 AM UTCAlso, I'm seeing scattered reports that the Kurdish units under the SDF (PKK/YPG/etc.) are 'on strike'; refusing to deploy outside of a defensive context, until the US supports them properly against Turkey.
This would just be unreliable hearsay if it weren't for how easily ISIS has been bulldozing SDF positions over the last week or so - initially the US/SDF reported that three separate attacks had been 'repelled' around Hajin with 25+ casualties inflicted on the attackers, but ISIS has since (through AMAQ) released photos and videos showing that this absolutely was not the case.
To summarise, it appears that Kurdish groups (numbering over 80% of SDF forces) have refused to deploy outside of their home bases, leaving Arab and Christian minorities to do the fighting on the perimeter. ISIS has become aware of this and stepped up their attacks (there's no reason that they should be able to; their numbers in the region are 6.5k vs. 60k) and the US is likely allowing this to happen to 'blow up' the ISIS threat as a pretext to stay in Syria.
I suspect that the Kurds will, eventually switch sides and come to an agreement with Assad and the SAA. I know I've said that before but it's been inevitable since Russian and Iranian involvement allowed the SAA to crush ISIS and the Wahabbi-Salafi so-called 'moderate rebels' - there's no sustainable future where they fight against the Syrian state, now that its existence is no longer threatened by sectarian warfare. -
2018-11-26 at 4:03 AM UTCthe Kurds know their best bet at autonomy and self governance is making a deal with Assad. The US will leave them as soon as they aren't useful (basically now) and they'll be left to fend for themselves without leverage. They had a good thing going when they were keeping IS out of the northeast on the edge of deiz al zour or whatever plus the US backing and allowing them to use their land for air units but when they expanded their territory and the SAA came through and showed them what a real army with real air power could do they kinda realized how ineffectual they were. Kurds are good defenders but not aggressors. They need to play their hand well.
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2018-11-26 at 5:38 AM UTC
Originally posted by Sudo the Kurds know their best bet at autonomy and self governance is making a deal with Assad. The US will leave them as soon as they aren't useful (basically now) and they'll be left to fend for themselves without leverage. They had a good thing going when they were keeping IS out of the northeast on the edge of deiz al zour or whatever plus the US backing and allowing them to use their land for air units but when they expanded their territory and the SAA came through and showed them what a real army with real air power could do they kinda realized how ineffectual they were. Kurds are good defenders but not aggressors. They need to play their hand well.
assad cant give them autonomy for 2 things.
precedent, and syrian nationalists. -
2018-11-26 at 8:50 AM UTC
Originally posted by vindicktive vinny assad cant give them autonomy for 2 things.
precedent, and syrian nationalists.
He's likely to give them some degree of autonomy but there will absolutely not be a separate Kurdish state.
Originally posted by Sudo the Kurds know their best bet at autonomy and self governance is making a deal with Assad. The US will leave them as soon as they aren't useful (basically now) and they'll be left to fend for themselves without leverage. They had a good thing going when they were keeping IS out of the northeast on the edge of deiz al zour or whatever plus the US backing and allowing them to use their land for air units but when they expanded their territory and the SAA came through and showed them what a real army with real air power could do they kinda realized how ineffectual they were. Kurds are good defenders but not aggressors. They need to play their hand well.
I have a hard time reading them because the majority of the Kurds in the SDF are YPG/PKK (Erdogan's right, they're essentially the same thing - low level soldiers may be exclusively one or the other, but they share the same command structure and take orders from the same commanders) - meaning that a large number of them are not native to Syria and hence aren't there to protect their homes so much as carve out a Kurdish state, or at the very least a staging ground for pissing over the fence at Turkey. -
2018-11-26 at 8:57 AM UTCAlso,
Ukraine - Ukraine has sent three warships into the Kerch Strait off of Crimea, ostensibly toward the port of Mariupol. Russia has stated that the Ukrainian authorities made no attempt to request access to Russian territorial waters, so the warships (a tug and two gunboats) were intercepted, captured and apparently sent back to their base.
This appears to be a pre-planned provocation as Poroshenko's using it to justify martial law and full mobilisation of the military - NATO is backing the Ukraine and failing to recognise Russian territorial waters around Crimea but support seems tentative - NATO does not want to go to war over this, as Porky no doubt hoped.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2018-11-26 at 10:32 AM UTC
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2018-11-26 at 12:10 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Also,
Ukraine - Ukraine has sent three warships into the Kerch Strait off of Crimea, ostensibly toward the port of Mariupol. Russia has stated that the Ukrainian authorities made no attempt to request access to Russian territorial waters, so the warships (a tug and two gunboats) were intercepted, captured and apparently sent back to their base.
This appears to be a pre-planned provocation as Poroshenko's using it to justify martial law and full mobilisation of the military - NATO is backing the Ukraine and failing to recognise Russian territorial waters around Crimea but support seems tentative - NATO does not want to go to war over this, as Porky no doubt hoped.
lol I figured you would post about this but you were a little slow to the draw. Nikki Haley is having an emergency meeting of the UN security conference over this, likely to tell everyone to chill. Ukraine's lucky they have marioupol in the first place. I wonder if they'll sell off the rights to the ports to American jedis like they did with Odessa -
2018-11-26 at 12:19 PM UTCHah yeah, I saw it on RT last night but there weren't enough details for me to understand what was going on. I'm pretty confident it was all a preplanned provocation at this point - more sanctions and rhetoric but the subtext is that NATO/the US are getting tired of Porky's antics.
I don't think that this was pre-approved by the powers that be, it seems more like Poroshenko's trying to take the lead and get things started. -
2018-11-26 at 12:21 PM UTCOn a similar topic Romania's been granted a bunch of HIMARS long-range high accuracy missile artillery, but I'm not sure of the context there
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2018-11-26 at 12:25 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Hah yeah, I saw it on RT last night but there weren't enough details for me to understand what was going on. I'm pretty confident it was all a preplanned provocation at this point - more sanctions and rhetoric but the subtext is that NATO/the US are getting tired of Porky's antics.
I don't think that this was pre-approved by the powers that be, it seems more like Poroshenko's trying to take the lead and get things started.
Yeah he's really got to go, his usefullness has really outweighed his bullshit rhetoric. He might be hard to depose though because he's so entrenched in the graft, corruption and state media. Literally declared martial law, what a piece of shit
Sidenote, have you ever fantasized about fucking timoshenko with her ridiculous crown of thorns hair? I dunno what it is, something about her that I find attractive, I used to go with a Ukranian sl00t in high school so it could have something to do with that. Also, the Russian lawyer in Crimea every one knows about but goddamn, something about timoshenko makes me think she's a freak.
This is all Rupaul Manaforts fault -
2018-11-26 at 12:39 PM UTC
Originally posted by Sudo Yeah he's really got to go, his usefullness has really outweighed his bullshit rhetoric. He might be hard to depose though because he's so entrenched in the graft, corruption and state media. Literally declared martial law, what a piece of shit
As I understand it he's only barely holding on to power; large sections of both the military and 'volunteer battalions' want his head for varying reasons... There's also no shortage of powerful players like Khodorovsky and Tymoshenko who have been laying low and working in the background, so I'd doubt it'd take much to depose him.
Originally posted by Sudo Sidenote, have you ever fantasized about fucking timoshenko with her ridiculous crown of thorns hair?
LOL yes, she looks like an extra from Game of Thrones or something. She's probably done a lot of weird shit to get to where she is.
Arseniy Yatsenyuk's face makes me inexplicably angry just seeing it though.
Oh yeah, Russian embassy in Kharkov is on fire, lol.
