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2018-03-20 at 6:20 PM UTC
Originally posted by benny vader yea, thats called fuel hedging and that works becos irregardless of what happened, fuels remain fuels
but i dont think thats how it works in electronics industry where each and every development cycle can be as short as one months.
i dont think its possible to hedge a batch of display cards 3months in advance becos its like a new model / revision come out every month or two.
the example was based on a purchaser making a contract to purchase a product at a set price regardless of what the external market prices are doing
if you wanted to get technical, fossil fuels are more volatile (artificially so) than the electronics market. -
2018-03-20 at 7:15 PM UTC
Originally posted by infinityshock the example was based on a purchaser making a contract to purchase a product at a set price regardless of what the external market prices are doing
if you wanted to get technical, fossil fuels are more volatile (artificially so) than the electronics market.
yes, volatile in prices but not in actual value.
a barrel of crude oil will have an X amount of BTU now as it will a year from now.
a radeon 12222xx will not have the same value it has now a year from today so its unlikely that anyone want to have a steady supply of that display card in the pipeline for an extended period of time.
i think the entire industry is like a short order cook. -
2018-03-20 at 7:26 PM UTC
Originally posted by GasTheKikesRaceWarNow Point 1 is just wrong. Crypto demand will not drop off for 10 years+.
It has already dropped over 60% since the January top and will only go down further, probably retracing all of the 2017 growth as people realize that most of these coins are worthless, over-hyped pseudo-assets.
And Captain Falcon does actually make good points quite often. His ability to demolish poorly thought out arguments definitely gets people triggered though. -
2018-03-20 at 7:49 PM UTC
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2018-03-20 at 8:33 PM UTC
Originally posted by benny vader i dont think this is very business thinking.
electronic and fashion industries relied on fad and trends to maximize their profits and if theres an opportunity to make a huge profit based on some fad or trends …
its highly like they would seize it.
afterall … most things ebing sold these days are like 20/80 cost to profit ratio to the manufacturers and middlemen alike all the way down to your dealer.
You can't just roll out new production lines and increase factory throughput overnight. Manufacturers plan their production runs months in advance, so if they choose to respond to the current demand and the bubble bursts soon, they'll be stuck with a surplus of GPUs and a lot of sunk cost into equipment they don't need. Cryptocurrency is clearly in a bubble, and I'm certain the people at Nvidia and AMD have looked at this and are smart enough to conclude that it's not worth the risk. -
2018-03-20 at 8:50 PM UTC
Originally posted by inb4l0pht You can't just roll out new production lines and increase factory throughput overnight. Manufacturers plan their production runs months in advance, so if they choose to respond to the current demand and the bubble bursts soon, they'll be stuck with a surplus of GPUs and a lot of sunk cost into equipment they don't need. Cryptocurrency is clearly in a bubble, and I'm certain the people at Nvidia and AMD have looked at this and are smart enough to conclude that it's not worth the risk.
i used to work in an HDD factory and you wouldnt believe how many times we got whipped to increase output.
besides ... like i said, everything produced will have a cost-to-profit ratio of 20-80, that is to say if they managed to sell a unit and ship it out of the factory, theyve recoup the cost of the other four units produced.
and if you want to see how fast a production cycle can be, just look at how fast ''new'' galaxy 7 came out after the debacle. -
2018-03-20 at 8:57 PM UTC
Originally posted by benny vader yes, volatile in prices but not in actual value.
a barrel of crude oil will have an X amount of BTU now as it will a year from now.
a radeon 12222xx will not have the same value it has now a year from today so its unlikely that anyone want to have a steady supply of that display card in the pipeline for an extended period of time.
i think the entire industry is like a short order cook.
you have no idea what youre talking about -
2018-03-20 at 8:57 PM UTC
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2018-03-20 at 9:11 PM UTC
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2018-03-20 at 9:11 PM UTC
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2018-03-20 at 9:16 PM UTCfair enuff i guess.
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2018-03-21 at 4:22 AM UTC
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2018-03-21 at 4:38 AM UTChttps://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/tag/gpu-computing/
When decent machine vision becomes a thing decent GPUs will become insanely valuable. -
2018-03-21 at 5:20 AM UTC
