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Conflict Shitpile II - Sarin-like Substance Edition
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2017-08-02 at 5:15 AM UTCyeah I misread your post, didn't see the word 'abroad' but assumed that was what you meant.
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2017-08-02 at 5:25 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Been out of it the last week or so, haven't been able to follow much of anything.
First, lol.
SYRIA - Today's theme is chemical weapons. More rumours that Al-Nusra-affiliated dongs are preparing attacks in the Ghouta area (not sure why they keep trying to hit the same place - Ghouta was the location of the first chemical attack that triggered Obongo's 'red line' and there have been at least two other foiled attacks there that I know of).
The OPCW released their complete report (full document here) and they've really added nothing to it - my analysis on the WIP (link) still stands. The only significant addition is the inclusion of sources they used, all of which are heavily anti-government NGOs and factions on the ground.
Wow, I like themes. -
2017-08-03 at 2:29 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra EUROPE - New US sanctions have been passed by the house (and senate I believe), Trump has been quoted as saying he doesn't oppose them so he'll sign them when they hit his desk.
Signed. Relations with Russia will never improve and they're banking on the EU (Germany specifically) being so severely afflicted with 'battered wife syndrome' that they'll sign away their own national interest and pay close to double for unreliable US energy supplies... It's likely to force them closer to Russia.
LEBANON - HTS (Al-Nusra) in the country has been crushed, Hezbullah has signed a cease-fire with them as they take their families and withdraw to Idlib. 66 buses are apparently taking them to the border, at which point the Syrian Government has arranged transport -
2017-08-03 at 3:54 AM UTCVENEZUELA - is in the process of getting UkrainedThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2017-08-03 at 4:10 AM UTCSYRIA - More defections, talk of the US base at Al-Tanf being handed over to Russian forces (?!) - current US behaviour seems extremely strange; it seems like most military and intelligence commanders are against pulling out of Syria but there appears to be a definite disengagement policy in many areas. This is compounded by the recent signing of new anti-Russian sanctions that also hamstrings the president in trying to work toward improving relations with Russia, China and Iran.
It's possible that they're withdrawing support from the FSA and other rebel units and putting all their chips on the SDF, but even the SDF is seemingly less and less under US control. -
2017-08-04 at 10:37 PM UTCwhy no entries on the shenanigans in north korea?
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2017-08-07 at 4:14 AM UTC
Originally posted by infinityshock why no entries on the shenanigans in north korea?
There are a few, but in general I try to post about things that don't get reported or are reported on poorly - in NK, most of the information I get is directly from standard media sources that anyone else could find - there's so little of any real consequence that I don't think much of it merits analysis. On that topic though:
KOREA - UNSC has passed further sanctions against NK unanimously; that is Russia and China have both approved them where they'd previously vetoed. Trump has thanked them for co-operation, but as I understand it it was mostly done to try to stop the US from taking unilateral military action and China doesn't really intend to abide by them anyway.
Lavrov brought up something I hadn't thought of previously - even though NK may now be able to build and field ICBMs, their nuclear technology is not believed to be at the stage where it can be feasibly mounted on a missile. Russian intelligence indicates it may be years before that's a possibility as currently, their nuclear warheads are far too large and oddly shaped to be mounted on a missile.
SYRIA - US news outlets are now running stories on the FSA defections under claims that Syrian/Russian forces are 'poaching US-trained fighters' and that 'only a handful have defected from the al-tanf region'. In actual fact almost the entire 'Revolution Commandos' group defected as well as around 50 of the 'Maghawir a-Thawra' or 'New Syrian Army', largely due to lack of leadership and US abandonment of the Al-Tanf base more than any 'poaching'. It sounds as though they're trying to reverse the order of events; claiming that the US has to leave the Al-Tanf base because they lost the support of the local fighters when the reality is the exact opposite. -
2017-08-07 at 6:15 AM UTCSYRIA - SAA are now being issued the latest Russian VERBA MANPADs. Hopefully this will make Israel think twice before performing any more air-to-surface dicketry, but I can only imagine that it's a response to the new US sanctions given the timing.
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2017-08-07 at 6:25 AM UTCSAUDI ARABIA - Saudi forces are continuing to force starvation on Yemen. Previously they've intentionally destroyed, blockaded and now occupied the major port at Hodeida, blocking food, medicine and fuel deliveries, but they're now reportedly blocking UN fuel deliveries both there and at Aden, another occupied port. This has the result of grounding aid flights, stopping the UN from delivering food and medical supplies.
Saudi Arabia is starting to face major uprisings; it's largely kept under wraps but several towns in the east (most specifically Al-Awamayah) have long been demonstrating against the government. The government has sent security forces to crush the mostly-peaceful protests, but sporadic reports indicate that some parts of that city have turned into a warzone.
The cities in question are largely Shiite and Christian, which helps explain why KSA has responded so brutally. -
2017-08-07 at 6:27 AM UTC...I think it's about time for a new thread
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2017-08-09 at 2:05 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Lavrov brought up something I hadn't thought of previously - even though NK may now be able to build and field ICBMs, their nuclear technology is not believed to be at the stage where it can be feasibly mounted on a missile. Russian intelligence indicates it may be years before that's a possibility as currently, their nuclear warheads are far too large and oddly shaped to be mounted on a missile.
Looking into this, NK apparently made the claim that they had built a new type of nuclear warhead earlier this year; one that could feasibly be mounted on a missile. At the time the US dismissed the claim as unrealistic, but now both the US and Japanese intelligence agencies are claiming that NK wasn't lying and is capable of fielding nuclear ICBMs - no evidence has been released, however. -
2017-08-09 at 2:13 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Looking into this, NK apparently made the claim that they had built a new type of nuclear warhead earlier this year; one that could feasibly be mounted on a missile. At the time the US dismissed the claim as unrealistic, but now both the US and Japanese intelligence agencies are claiming that NK wasn't lying and is capable of fielding nuclear ICBMs - no evidence has been released, however.
- north korea is notorious for 'fake news.' examples are deploying missiles or displaying them in military parades then when intel analysts do an evaluation they are nothing more than hollywood-esque props. NK also regularly release false information that is wholly inaccurate...out and out lies. Everything coming out of NK is orchestrated propaganda.
- the US media has recently (last few months) started ramping up anti-NK sentiment along with NK fear mongering. (hawaii and commifornia having nuke ICBM drills. ffs...that is full retard.) the part i dont get is the US media is full-anti-trump yet theyre toeing his line of 'NKorea-bad.' -
2017-08-09 at 2:27 AM UTC
Originally posted by infinityshock - north korea is notorious for 'fake news.' examples are deploying missiles or displaying them in military parades then when intel analysts do an evaluation they are nothing more than hollywood-esque props. NK also regularly release false information that is wholly inaccurate…out and out lies. Everything coming out of NK is orchestrated propaganda.
yup, that's what I was getting at - there's no way for the average person to know the truth; the public becomes more fearful and thus more open to an aggressive, 'protective' government through uncertainty than even a scary truth.- the US media has recently (last few months) started ramping up anti-NK sentiment along with NK fear mongering. (hawaii and commifornia having nuke ICBM drills. ffs…that is full retard.) the part i dont get is the US media is full-anti-trump yet theyre toeing his line of 'NKorea-bad.'
I'm pretty sure the media's hate boner for Trump is just incidental; the old models are not profitable and the only way the big agencies survive is through government and private funding - their reporting directly reflects the interests of the richest and most influential groups in the country. They hate and smear Trump because he means to reduce their power and influence significantly.
North Korea's been demonised, sanctioned and starved since the end of the Korean war; pretty much every president I remember has railed against them from time to time - threatening NK's more of a foreign policy/state department meme than something directly related to Trump. -
2017-08-09 at 4:42 AM UTC
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2017-08-09 at 7:09 AM UTCAs an amusing aside, more and more locals in Iraq and Syria are adding me on facebook because they see me regularly talking shit to people who support the regime-change efforts over thereThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2017-08-09 at 6:31 PM UTC
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2017-08-09 at 6:32 PM UTCWhat do you do for a living, aldra?
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2017-08-10 at 2:13 AM UTC
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2017-08-10 at 9:39 AM UTC
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2017-08-11 at 3:17 AM UTCSAUDI ARABIA - As mentioned above, KSA has an active operation in Awamiya. They're currently reporting that the city is being 'renovated' (lol, what?), but there are large numbers of civilian witnesses claiming that houses are being bulldozed and people are being shot indiscriminately in the street. This is a Shiite crackdown - it's so far unclear if the residents are fighting back or if they've got external support, but KSA is trying hard to stop information from leaking from the area.
This could well be (strictly, without exaggeration) genocide committed by the head of the UN Human Rights Council.
