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Conflict Shitpile II - Sarin-like Substance Edition
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2017-07-05 at 4:14 AM UTCDeZ, for some reason Alesia comes to mind.....
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2017-07-05 at 4:45 AM UTCCan I just say that I appreciate the strong bold SYRIA before every post.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2017-07-05 at 5:42 PM UTC
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2017-07-05 at 6:10 PM UTC
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2017-07-06 at 5:58 AM UTC
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2017-07-06 at 12:28 PM UTC
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2017-07-06 at 8:13 PM UTC
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2017-07-07 at 2:46 PM UTCBeen out of it the last week or so, haven't been able to follow much of anything.
First, lol.
SYRIA - Today's theme is chemical weapons. More rumours that Al-Nusra-affiliated dongs are preparing attacks in the Ghouta area (not sure why they keep trying to hit the same place - Ghouta was the location of the first chemical attack that triggered Obongo's 'red line' and there have been at least two other foiled attacks there that I know of).
The OPCW released their complete report (full document here) and they've really added nothing to it - my analysis on the WIP (link) still stands. The only significant addition is the inclusion of sources they used, all of which are heavily anti-government NGOs and factions on the ground. -
2017-07-08 at 3:29 PM UTCits time for a conflict shitpile III, zipperhead edition.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/08/asia/us-bombers-north-korea-icbm-test/index.html
the US is getting the zipperheads trained to see US platforms doing 'stuff' in their general vicinity to instill complacency so when its time to actually make some boom and bang noises the zipperheads wont be so skittish when they first see the platform.
i guarantee the crews of those aircraft had targeting information and were doing practice ordnance delivery. -
2017-07-08 at 9:22 PM UTC
Originally posted by infinityshock its time for a conflict shitpile III, zipperhead edition.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/08/asia/us-bombers-north-korea-icbm-test/index.html
CNN = FAKE NEUS. -
2017-07-09 at 4:25 AM UTC
Originally posted by infinityshock its time for a conflict shitpile III, zipperhead edition.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/08/asia/us-bombers-north-korea-icbm-test/index.html
the US is getting the zipperheads trained to see US platforms doing 'stuff' in their general vicinity to instill complacency so when its time to actually make some boom and bang noises the zipperheads wont be so skittish when they first see the platform.
i guarantee the crews of those aircraft had targeting information and were doing practice ordnance delivery.
The entire reason for NK wanting to develop an ICBM is because they're sick of seeing the US doing 'stuff' on their borders. I wonder if they have the capability to hit high-altitude bombers like that though - they have old Soviet tech, but I haven't heard much about them developing SAMs. Most of their military capability is in hardened underground bunkers anyway so the US would have to field a lot of bunker busters and work out where to put them - they might not even consider SAMs to be worthwhile.
Regardless there's really no winning for the US here - they've rejected the proposed political solutions (ie. stop the constant 'military drills' and NK will halt ICBM development or renegotiate the agreement the US walked away from in the 90s), so the only real option they have is military. They have the option to back down (unlikely), get into a protracted war they can't win (in which case NK would likely be heavily backed by China, covertly or overtly), or launch a nuclear first-strike.
Originally posted by benny vader CNN = FAKE NEUS.
actually a surprisingly balanced article for CNN -
2017-07-09 at 4:29 AM UTCIRAQ - More and more videos and general rumours of US helicopters landing in ISIS-controlled Hawijah (Northern Iraq), something big's being organised there
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2017-07-09 at 6:33 PM UTCis this conflict shitpile exclusive for middle east or a general one ???
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2017-07-13 at 5:15 AM UTC
Originally posted by benny vader is this conflict shitpile exclusive for middle east or a general one ???
General, it doesn't matter.
NORTH KOREA - The US has announced that they 'could assassinate Kim Jong Un, but don't'. Sounds like a psyop given their rationale is 'he personally attends rocket launches so we know where he is' and their longstanding intelligence failures against NK, but I'm not sure what they hope to accomplish by making him even more paranoid.
IRAQ - Mosul has been officially liberated, though there are still ISIS enclaves that are holding out against government forces. It's hard to tell how much resistance they're still facing due to media blackouts. There's still a large pocket of ISIS fighters and hardware in Hawijah (as mentioned above - it seems like the US is in contact with them), but outside of that the rest of ISIS-held territory is on the Syrian border. My theory is that the US is attempting to force ISIS out of Iraq and into Syria to deplete the SAA, supported by the many instances where they allowed ISIS convoys to escape from strongholds under siege (most notably Fallujah, where the escaping convoys were spotted by Iraqi gunships).
As an aside, US news outlets report that they (US forces) intend to stay in Iraq indefinitely - it's likely the PMUs will turn on US forces once other enemies are defeated; it's why they were previously so insistent on the PMUs being dismantled.
SYRIA - The SAA have been running intensive operations on the southeastern border; they've enclosed the US/FSA base at Al-Tanf and have curiously been facing fierce resistance from ISIS in the east. The SAA originally set up positions east of Al-Tanf as a buffer between the US and ISIS to stop hostilities from escalating while there was only a light SAA presence in the area (and due to suspicions of collusion), but now that there's a heavy SAA presence, ISIS seems determined to punch through so that they can be open to attack from Al-Tanf.
SYRIA/IRAQ GENERAL - To understand what's going on it helps to look at current progress maps - these are from southfront.org, but they archive their maps periodically so I'll copy them to imgur:
The game now seems to be border control. At the top of the map you can see the SDF/YPG (over 80% of the SDF is now apparently YPG units) connected directly with the Iraqi Peshmergas, which is likely intended to build support for either an extension of Iraqi Kurdistan or a new Kurdish partition of Syria.
ISIS is still in control of most of the Syria/Iraq border; they're likely being funded to stay that way because the US, Israel and Gulf States absolutely do not want a 'Highway to Tehran' available to the SAA. The SAA have already established control over a section of the Iraq border east of Al-Tanf, but it's very small at the moment.
was going to write more but a citrix server ate shit and I forgot what else I was going to say -
2017-07-13 at 5:51 PM UTC
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2017-07-14 at 1:42 AM UTC
Originally posted by benny vader why arennt there anything about the shit that has been going down in the phillipines ???
I thought it'd died down, seems to get little coverage. I know the organisations in question (MAUTE and MILF (yes - MILF)) have been around and causing trouble for decades; from memory MILF started the process of reconciliation and disarmament under Duerte and some of them weren't happy about it, moving to MAUTE and openly pledging allegiance to ISIS.
If escalation's escalating, I'll have to track down some local sources to get decent information -
2017-07-14 at 7:06 PM UTC
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2017-07-15 at 4:42 AM UTC
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2017-07-17 at 1:17 AM UTCYEMEN - This is interesting, apparently the US House of Representatives has overwhelmingly approved amendments to the defence spending act effectively banning US forces from participating in KSA's attack on Yemen. It still has to go through the Senate but if it passes, it'll explicitly ban ground forces (Marines have been deployed several times recently) and may even cover 'advisors' and support forces such as refuelers.
Without the US forces (and likely even with), KSA has zero chance of a ground victory - their African mercenaries are constantly turned to mince by the far better trained (and now highly experienced) regular Yemeni military. This may lead to KSA making use of higher-grade mercenary groups (specifically the US Academi and the few French PMUs that don't draw from third-world countries), but I'm not sure why they don't already so there might be something preventing them. -
2017-07-17 at 1:25 AM UTC
Originally posted by benny vader they just took over some part of midanao about a month ago, ISIS style.
PHILIPPINES - Here's a good article on what's going on now - In short, MAUTE has control of one area in the inner-city roughly 1KM square, and while there are military patrols and a curfew outside that zone, police and local government are still in charge; there's no martial law and the city is not locked down. Roughly 300,000 people were evacuated; 100,000 have returned. The major concern they have at the moment is that many of the group responsible have been found to be foreign fighters, either through identification of their bodies or passports and identification found in captured facilities - the majority come from Indonesia and Arab countries.
