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Posts by Meikai
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2021-11-13 at 4:41 PM UTC in Kyle Rittenhouse: Am I missing something?
Originally posted by Sudo The shit about the judge is fucking laughable, it's like these morons have never seen a fucking judge before, what a bunch of whiney VICTIMS
The prosecutors had a hard job, making a legal argument where there was barely one, and they failed, which is to be expected. Just let the kid do 6 months with 3 years probation or something and everyone shut the fuck up
I read some tweets by a Kenosha lawyer who has apparently gone before this judge many times, and apparently he is always hard on the prosecution. Which is how all judges should be, tbh. The defendant has a right to a fair trial. The prosecution should have to jump every hurdle you can reasonably thrust before them if they wish to secure a conviction. This lawyer also claimed, however, that for as tough as the judge is on the prosecution during the trial, he's equally tough (or tougher) on the defendant during sentencing. If Kyle is found guilty, people will get their pound of flesh from him via this judge. -
2021-11-13 at 4:12 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox ThreadAlso I made this thread in SG for a reason, dalit.
Move the thread back. This was supposed to be fun and accessible, not just another a circle jerk for lanny, falco, and obbe to be pseuds in. -
2021-11-13 at 4:10 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by Nigger Nintendo Maybe you just don't understand the thought experiment then.
It explicitly doesn't matter what it predicted at the time you open the boxes. Is any part of the setup that what is inside the boxes will change?
You've done everything possible to avoid addressing this gap in your reasoning but this is in a topical forum now so don't just evade over and over.
It explicitly matters that the predictions are reliable. Whatever you choose is most likely to have been predicted. Nothing inside the boxes will change. Nothing inside the boxes needs to change. You just need to accept that Omega is reliable, and choose accordingly. Picking B won't magically make money appear in B if there was none, but if you're picking B it's very likely to already contain a million dollars.
You don't have to like it, but them's the breaks. Omega works in mysterious ways. Omega's predictions are uncanny. The thought experiment is basically a midwit trap that boils down to "would you take a million dollars or a thousand dollars" in practice, and perpetually you will screech about causality to justify choosing the wrong answer. Doesn't matter if it makes formal sense, in practice the formally correct solution is a suboptimal strategy when approached by Omega. "Everyone who has played the formally correct solution has had a suboptimal outcome" is cooked into the thought experiment, which is why you were trying to invent holes like "everyone who has played the formally correct solution could actually mean nobody, bro". -
2021-11-13 at 3:44 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by Nigger Nintendo Explicitly by the setup of the game, if you take box B then no one else can take box A.
REEEEEEEEEEEEE
That means nobody else has chosen B-only before… meaning Omega just left $1000 in Box A and jack shit in Box B. If you choose Box B you are a fool who will get $0.
Or maybe he'll just use different boxes. Oh well. -
2021-11-13 at 3:40 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox ThreadThat's how word games work, not thought experiments. Omega has no time for your word games. Omega put a bomb in your B box.
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2021-11-13 at 3:38 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by Nigger Nintendo Also that's exactly how thought experiments work: I am only working within the exact parameters that were set.
>everyone who did a thing had x result
>so you're saying x result never occurred, right? i mean "everyone who did a thing" could mean nobody haha so actually my terrible answer is completely justified because i can basically disregard the stated fact that x result was a reliable outcome on semantic grounds
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2021-11-13 at 3:04 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
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2021-11-13 at 2:32 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
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2021-11-13 at 5:09 AM UTC in Kyle Rittenhouse: Am I missing something?Reading about the Rittenhouse case earlier and I had the realization that I'm a terrible person. Well, I already knew I was a terrible person, but it brought into focus a new way in which I am terrible. I don't like the Rittenhouse family. I just find their existence aesthetically and spiritually depressing, in much the same way I imagine many people find me. Nothing to do with politics or the shooting or anything. They're just... sad. In a good person this would probably inspire compassion, but in me all it inspires is a vague snobbish disdain. Like an aristocrat's disdain for a smelly peasant. Which is pretty fucking rich considering I'm objectively worse than them in every way along basically every conceivable axis.
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2021-11-13 at 4:29 AM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox ThreadGetting all caught up on "determinism" and "retrocausality" and shit like some kind of brain genius is nerd shit. Doesn't matter.
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2021-11-13 at 4:19 AM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by Nigger Nintendo Omega has left and made whatever prediction it made and that apparently won't change now regardless of my decision.
If the box is empty at this point, me picking B only would result in my getting nothing but A+B would give me $1000+0.
If the box is full at this point, me picking B only would result in me getting $1,000,000 whereas picking A+B will give me 1mil+1000.
You don't get brownie point for adhering to or beating Omega's prediction, the outcome of what is in B isn't going to change based on my choice, just what Omega thought my choice would be.
You don't get brownie points for adhering to Omega's prediction - you get a fuckton of utility for it, but only if you take B. And odds are that no matter what you choose, you will be adhering to it. It is outside of your control. Whatever you pick is likely to have been predicted, so simply pick the answer that will reward you the most if that is true. Ignoring the fact that whatever you pick is likely to have been accurately predicted is silly. A+B will almost certainly only ever reward you with $1000. B will almost certainly reward you with $1000000. Simple as. -
2021-11-12 at 10:32 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by What_a_Kreep How big is the box that supposedly contains a million dollars?
Like, I mean it would have to be a pretty big box, right?
My first answer was take only B. Choosing to take both seems pretty greedy. My instant thought was, "what kind of asshole would choose both A + B"
Also, you can't choose just "A" because then you're the person who could have missed out on a million dollars just to end up $1,000.00.
If you're on a game show you get the option to "just leave now with a $1,000." or "spin the wheel for a chance at a million"
I'ma spin that wheel.
Also, this reminds me of a game show from the early 2000's (i didn't watch it btw, but I knew what it was).
Basically this guy, Howie Mandel hosted. (i have no idea why I remember his name, i think he was famous in the 80s or in Menudo or something) Basically 23 minutes of Vanna White bitches open up suite cases.
God, white people will watch anything.
Got curious and looked it up and apparently you can fit $1000000 in just... like... an average backpack (if its all in hunnits). -
2021-11-12 at 10:10 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by Xlite I'll take box A and call it a day.
There's no way i'm that lucky. Besides, i dont really need that amount of moneh anyway.
Omega fires a green energy beam from one of its vertices, the impact of which converts you into a being of pure energy. "Congratulations. You have completed many cycles of life and rebirth here, and chosen humbly. You have become wise, and now you have become free." it says. It then absorbs your energized form through the pulsating green cracks that line its body, and you are never heard from again. Not in this universe anyway. -
2021-11-12 at 9:46 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by Lanny Slightly more sophisticated argument but still vacuous. As always though, it's impressive you can burn this much intellectual effort on being wrong.
The neo-oneboxer position is that we don't have any real agency in picking a box (either we're destined to pick either A or A+B, or our decision is a probabilistic outcome) but that somehow we have agency in choosing to be a oneboxer or twoboxer. Which there is absolutely no reason to believe. Even if I subscribe to the questionable logic that informs your position, I have no more choice in being a one or twoboxer and convincing omega of that than I do in defying whatever the odds are of Omega being incorrect about which category I fall into. Maybe my lot in life is that when I'm confronted with Omega there won't be a million dollars, but I won't struggle against what I can not change, I boldly face down the blatant unfairness of the situation, the cosmic clockwork or random flux that brings me to that crossroads, and I will make the objectively correct decision for deceit would net me nothing but cost me my dignity. Foolish oneboxers seek to struggle against the tides of the cosmos but I flow with it. I accept the limits of my agency, but in so far as I have any I will use it correctly. You will thank me when I pogrom the plague victims and save your puny civilization for you do not deserve it but I will be there, the protector, the unmovable, the objectively correct. I am the Alpha and the Omega, the beginning and the end. To all who are thirsty I will give freely from the springs of the water of reason.
DO NOT TEST ME LUCY
I don't struggle against the tides of the cosmos, I just accept that whatever I pick is most likely going to be what Omega predicted and so pick the answer most likely to grant the greatest reward. And I'll be right to do so. Probably. Simple as. -
2021-11-12 at 8:51 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by Lanny You know that's wrong you nigger. You know A+B is correct, you just wanted to meme. Fuck you Lucy, fuck you.
The objectively correct answer is B. Not memeing, it simply is. As would be demonstrated when we opened our boxes, and I came out $999,000 wealthier than you. And it'd all have been for the sake of... what? Being correct on paper?
Being very generous to two boxers and assuming that this time, A+B nets more utility/money/whatever, we still have to reckon with the fact that 100 times out of a 101, making the "correct" decision demonstrably meant making the worse decision. And is that actually even making the correct decision? Is that winning? If there were two tribes of equal sizes - the Onebox Tribe and the Twobox Tribe - and all were to get their chance at playing the game (disregarding any implications this might have for the initial hypothetical) the Onebox Tribe is all but guaranteed to quickly amass vast riches the likes of which the sad little Twoboxers could scarcely imagine.
Originally posted by Yud Maybe it's too easy to say that you "ought to" two-box on Newcomb's Problem, that this is the "reasonable" thing to do, so long as the money isn't actually in front of you. Maybe you're just numb to philosophical dilemmas, at this point. What if your daughter had a 90% fatal disease, and box A contained a serum with a 20% chance of curing her, and box B might contain a serum with a 95% chance of curing her? What if there was an asteroid rushing toward Earth, and box A contained an asteroid deflector that worked 10% of the time, and box B might contain an asteroid deflector that worked 100% of the time?
Would you, at that point, find yourself tempted to make an unreasonable choice?
A+Bers would happily choose to the answer most likely to get us killed in the asteroid formulation of this question. This is an undeniable fact. You would win on paper. Oh, you made the reasonable choice. You got us that 10% chance. But how much better is that 10% chance than a 0% chance? How much better is it really, when the alternative was a perfect solution you were all but guaranteed by the reliability of the predictor? With actual life or death stakes, the daunting off-the-paper reality that you're most likely dooming the planet to extinction looms pretty large. Anyone who would begrudge the oneboxer for taking a 99% chance at a guaranteed solution over a 100% chance on a solution that's likely to fail is an idiot. Practically speaking, B is the only reasonable choice. -
2021-11-12 at 8:15 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by mmQ Can you draw me a picture of Omega please? I would like to know what its wings look like or is it flying by other means ?
Artist's rendition of Omega flying off to play another game - or perhaps back to its space-cube spouse, beta. At any rate its means of propulsion are unknown. You're welcome. Glad to help. -
2021-11-12 at 7:29 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by Jiggaboo_Johnson Another scenario…I smash the boxes open. I then take the contents of the boxes…not the boxes themselves.
Omega is thwarted again…there are dozens of ways to out smart this "puzzle"
Originally posted by Grylls I’ll give you both $500 each to shut the FUCK UP
ETH: 0xCc33083FD49958562347FB20A0669610fF1dCB7C -
2021-11-12 at 7:27 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by Jiggaboo_Johnson Ok if I am aware when Omega drops the boxes I shoot him dead, take both boxes, take his dead alien body, and take his spacecraft…I sell the spacecraft to China for 100 billion dollars and the alien body to Russia (after having sex with it) for 1 million.
Eta I toss the boxes to the nearest homeless person.
It's okay Jig, we have your answer. Two boxes. It's okay to be a two boxer. A guaranteed $1000 is a guaranteed $1000! Who cares if your odds of getting more are vanishingly slim, and some mongoloid who picks B's odds of winning less than you are equally slim. You'll win every time. The mongoloids will only win way more 99% of the time, so who's laughing at the end of the day? You are, probably. Like a madman, all the way to the cheque cashing place that also accepts trades on stolen gold jedielry. Never mind those silly one boxers on their way to an actual bank. -
2021-11-12 at 7:10 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by Jiggaboo_Johnson Source? I see no mention of it in the text.
You're aware of everything in the text when you make your decision. You're aware Omega is a superintelligence from another galaxy. You're aware of the 100 previous iterations of the game. Because you read the text. That's how these things work, Jig.
Originally posted by Jiggaboo_Johnson You are moving the goal posts…
You are choosing to take both boxes by means of another human, ie... you are choosing to take both boxes.
Originally posted by Jiggaboo_Johnson Also if Omega dropped the boxes and then went on to the next project…how was he observing the results?
Omega doesn't care about observing the results. Omega just puts money in boxes based on predictions he makes about your future actions, then drops them at your feet. -
2021-11-12 at 6:57 PM UTC in Newcomb's Paradox Thread
Originally posted by Jiggaboo_Johnson One would not be aware of the fact "Omega has been correct on each of 100 observed occasions so far - everyone who took both boxes has found box B empty "
So that is moot…I'd therefore take both.
If I was aware of it, I wouldn't take any boxes, I'd have a third party take the boxes and then deliver them to me…thereby thwarting Omega's "prediction".
You are aware of it, so congratulations! You've got $1000 whole dollars. "I'd have someone else take both boxes" is still choosing both boxes, but even if you want to argue that you chose someone at random and had them choose in your stead, Omega factored this possibility into his predictions about what you'd do. Moot indeed.
