There's so much going on right now (Saudi Arabia and Lebanon mostly, but other actors are using it as cover too) it's hard to make realistic predictions.
SAUDI ARABIA - Saudi Arabia is imploding. As mentioned before, Prince Salman knows that Saudi Arabia's current political and economic trajectory is heading for disaster, so the only option that makes sense to him is the radical change that the House of Saud has been avoiding for decades. On the face of it, he's putting an end to corruption and the associated drain on the state and economy, but what's really happening is he's using corruption as a pretext to stop a coup before it happens. There's been intense infighting among the royals at the best of times but the pressure on the kingdom is unprecedented:
- They're being eclipsed in every way by Iran; from regional influence to the lifting of sanctions breaking the Gulf states' hold on the oil industry. Their oil supplies are not limitless and being unable to control prices has decimated their primary industry (not to mention being forced to drop oil prices through the floor for the last few years in a misguided effort to punish Russia).
- Their proxies, both Al-Nusra and ISIS affiliates in Syria, have been pulverised by the RAAF and SAA and abandoned by the US... The 'revolution' they gambled so much on has been almost completely reversed.
- They're not only losing the war within Yemen, the Yemeni forces are actually striking back at them hard with TBMs, their range and accuracy greatly augmented by both the soldiers' experience and transfer of Iranian missile tech.
All that stress has smashed the Royal family, the government and even the army down factional (tribal) lines. Prince Salman has been facing plot after plot to dethrone him, and he's arresting anyone who isn't supportive of his rule.
The problem for him is that various princes have broad support in various places, and he's creating animosity in those areas when placing them under arrest. The army, for example is the key to power in the country, and it's on the verge of tearing itself apart over split loyalties.
This is pretty amusing to watch, but becomes more sinister when you look at what's going on in Lebanon. Basically the Lebanese president, a hardline US-Israel supporter, has stepped down claiming that he 'fears for his life' over 'Iranian assassins'. This has opened up rifts in the government between Hezbullah and it's supporters and those who support the west (the majority of the people support Hezbullah/Iran, but the split is fairly even in the government).
The situation in and of itself is precarious, but diplomatic cables have also been leaked recently that show Israel is actively colluding with Saudi Arabia in plans to destabilise and break up Lebanon, as both countries have been openly terrified of a 'Shiia crescent' forming, an alliance spanning from Iran, to Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. The main fear is that they would work together in the case of another war with Israel, creating an enormous front that would spread the IDF out too far to have any hope of defending, as well as co-ordinating military systems such as how Russia and Syria are operating now.
Whether a major war in Lebanon kicks off probably depends on two things:
1. Who comes out on top in KSA. The best result for Israel is Prince Salman controlling the country, which is a bet against the odds so you can be sure that Israel and the US are covertly 'stacking the deck' in his favour, one way or another. If the country implodes or an anti-Israel prince takes power, the future becomes unpredictable.
2. What happens in Lebanon. Even in their staggering arrogance the Israelis understand there's less risk to their people if they can effect some sort of breakup or civil war politically - agents are already working toward these ends. If unrest builds into open warfare, Israel will likely wait until the parties are sufficiently weakened and start occupying more Lebanese lands. If not, there are other options (mercenaries, using Wahabbi ideology and the promise of an anti-Shia holy war etc.) to start with, but it'll likely end with a Saudi-Israeli invasion.
Sorry if that's hard to read, stream of consciousness and all that
