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Conflict Shitpile IV - Idlib Dawn Edition
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2018-12-14 at 3:26 AM UTCSyria - Russia has apparently set up a forward radar/ECM base right on the northwest edge of the 'de-escalation' zone around the US base at Al-Tanf. If verified this is unprecedented - the Al-Tanf base regularly acts as a staging ground for rebel attacks on nearby SAA positions and patrols, but the SAA has been long been unable to stop the attacks without triggering a wider conflict with the US.
Russian hardware being stationed nearby will specifically be used to passively disrupt US/rebel co-ordination, carrying it's own threat of escalation if attacked directly. -
2018-12-14 at 9:29 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Syria - Erdogan's announced that the Turkish Military will begin a major operation against the SDF east of the Euphrates within the next few days.
Looks like they're deploying 10-15k troops from the various groups under the 'FSA', now rebranded to the 'Syrian National Army' as the main force. The Turkish army will largely provide co-ordination and air support, ostensibly to minimize the chance of direct Turkish-US exchanges. Given that the FSA are A) terrible and B) highly factional, deploying them as a single force is likely to end hilariously badly. For everyone. -
2018-12-14 at 10:29 PM UTCso it appears assad has all but won, may nations are normalizing relations with him and so on. why the fuck is turkey in there balls deep still, how is it acceptable?
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2018-12-16 at 11:07 AM UTC
Originally posted by the pat-man so it appears assad has all but won, may nations are normalizing relations with him and so on. why the fuck is turkey in there balls deep still, how is it acceptable?
Who's going to stop them? Theoretically the SAA could probably drive them out but the country needs time to recover, and it'd almost definitely draw everyone involved (Iran and Russia behind Syria, israel, US and maybe Gulf States falling behind Turkey) into a wider war. I think the long-term strategy is for Syria to sort out their Idlib problem before worrying about Turkey, the US or their proxies, at which point Russia and possibly China can start turning the screws politically and economically.
Speaking of, I keep hearing about this, but there's no official confirmation (nor is their likely to be, given neither Syria or israel tends to make public foreign policy):
Syria, with Russia's blessing, has made a statement to israel that attacks on Syrian territory will no longer be tolerated. Specifically that they do not care if the supposed target is Hezbullah, Iran or whoever else - any attacks will be responded to in kind, an 'airport for an airport' specifically.
This is an interesting development because israel's aggressive posture depends on their enemies not being able or willing to strike back - for the most part Syrian and Russian anti-air has hesitated to even engage israeli jets (partially because they typically strike from outside of Syrian airspace at maximum missile range), preferring to attempt to intercept their munitions and drones instead. israel's 'Iron Dome', 'Arrow' and 'David's Sling' anti-missile systems have proven to have something like a 2% interception rate of Hamas' backyard-made missiles across israel's last two adventures into Gaza, so they're unlikely to have a significant effect against Syria's stockpile of Tochka-U's that have been recently reinforced by Russia... Let alone the Iranian hardware that has been transferred quietly.
Again though, israel's edge comes from a carefully curated image of impunity so they can't be seen to 'back down' over this. -
2018-12-20 at 11:53 AM UTCTrump appears to be trying to make serious efforts to withdraw US forces from Syria. I've been reading bits and pieces about this for the last few days, starting from Erdogan talking to Trump directly over his threats of directly attacking the SDF, but I honestly don't think he'll succeed and can't predict where it'll go from here.
The US forces are facing a lot of pressure and for no forseeable benefit - the only state that benefits from US forces and proxies in Syria at the moment is israel. The US has two major strongholds in Syria-
Al-Tanf is the southern base that is largely used to train and supply 'moderate rebels', which Russia has essentially cut off from the Syrian side, making it almost useless.
North/East of the Euphrates on the Turkish border is land claimed by the 'SDF', US forces and their local and regional (majority-)Kurdish proxies. This territory was earmarked as a base for longstanding regional US presence and perhaps gas transit, but Turkey will not allow a rebel Kurdish state to exist on the Turkish border - regardless of his bluffing and insanity, Erdogan's murderboner for Kurds always comes first.
There are hints that Turkey and the US have come to an understanding over the planned Turkish invasion, but I didn't put too much stock in it until Trump started openly talking about withdrawal. At this point, it seems likely that the bulk of the US forces (there are officially only around 2000 in the country) will pull out of SDF territory and the Kurds will be abandoned to the TAF.
I (and many others) thought it likely that the Kurds would side with the SAA once the US abandoned them, but lately I've been thinking about the composition of the SDF. At the height of the war, I talked to Vanessa Beeley about it and she told me that 80-90% of the SDF were PKK/YPG, which with their existing command structures, made it easy for the US to order them about as a regular army. The question I should've asked but didn't was how many of those soldiers were even Syrian? Generic rebels and ISIS were around 70% foreign before the SAA starting winning back territory, and the PKK/YPG originated in Turkey and Iraq.
The question there is, while it seems obvious that the local Kurds will run back to the SAA, what will become of the rest of them? A fairly safe estimate is that 50% or so are probably foreign fighters - will they also fight with the SAA? Will they disappear across borders, or try to smuggle themselves and their shiny new equipment back to their groups in Turkey to carry on the war there?The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2018-12-20 at 12:08 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Trump appears to be trying to make serious efforts to withdraw US forces from Syria.
its going to be a ceremonial withdrawal just like obamas withdrawal from afghan and iraq.
if there ever is a withdrawal, hundreds of special forces will stil be left behimd as advisors.
remember the shutdown ? might not happen. remember the wall ? might not happen.
pull out ? -
2018-12-20 at 12:12 PM UTCYeah, I get the impression that he wants to but won't be allowed to. It's been floating about for a week or so but it wasn't until Trump tweeted about their 'ISIS mission complete' that I took it more seriously.
Even if 'advisors' are left behind, Assad just needs to forewarn the US before bulldozing specific terrorist groups; it's not like they'll be able to do much to stop him.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2018-12-20 at 12:20 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Yeah, I get the impression that he wants to but won't be allowed to. It's been floating about for a week or so but it wasn't until Trump tweeted about their 'ISIS mission complete' that I took it more seriously.
Even if 'advisors' are left behind, Assad just needs to forewarn the US before bulldozing specific terrorist groups; it's not like they'll be able to do much to stop him.
either way trump be dammed.
he cant push in or pull out without getting critisized.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2018-12-20 at 1:27 PM UTClul
Jordan's apparently designated White Helmets as terrorists to be immediately extradited to SyriaThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2018-12-22 at 1:08 AM UTCUkraine - The basic gist of everything that's happening is that Porky is trying to start a war as cover for his certain upcoming failure at the polls (currently a single-digit approval rating). The problem there is that he's out of favor with his western sponsors, and so he has to be very careful as to how this is done. Russia has previously stated that they will not let Donetsk be turned into another Srebrenica, so if Ukraine were to push too hard into the breakaway republics Russia would have to drop the hammer and the west would be unlikely to intervene.
As a result, there are two major projects in play - firstly there is another incursion into the Kerch Strait being planned, and this time Porky's trying to get NATO/OSCE personnel on board to document 'Russian militarisation'.
The second is a possible chemical attack in the DPR region, likely with chlorine as in Syria. On that same topic I'm seeing scattered reports that a group is being created in the template of the White Helmets in order to stage and publicize such attacks, but nothing official yet. -
2018-12-23 at 10:35 AM UTCSyria - As stated previously, the US appears to actually be pulling out of Syria proper. There are plans to leave a small contingent of special forces behind (of course), and 'some aerial operations' will continue to be conducted from neighboring Iraq and Jordan.
France, more specifically Macron, has stated they intend to fill the military void left by the US. This would entail a tremendous expansion of their existing forces as well as a much greater degree of operational and political complexity, and as a result it appears no party to the conflict is taking it seriously (consider the French navy's abject failure in trying to participate in the last US-led cruise missile strikes on Syria). The SDF is already in talks with the Syrian government, and Hezbullah has pledged to help defend them against Turkey (so long as they work with Damascus, I suspect). -
2018-12-23 at 11:39 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra France, more specifically Macron, has stated they intend to fill the military void left by the US. This would entail a tremendous expansion of their existing forces as well as a much greater degree of operational and political complexity, and as a result it appears no party to the conflict is taking it seriously (consider the French navy's abject failure in trying to participate in the last US-led cruise missile strikes on Syria). The SDF is already in talks with the Syrian government, and Hezbullah has pledged to help defend them against Turkey (so long as they work with Damascus, I suspect).
they wont. his government will collapse either before that or upon his expression of intent to do that. -
2018-12-25 at 6:06 AM UTCUS warplanes have again destroyed the bridge in Deir Eizzor linking SDF and SAA controlled regions - even though they're ostensibly pulling out, they apparently still do not want the SAA and SDF coming into contact.
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2018-12-25 at 6:53 PM UTCCYBER-BERKUT is a 'hacker' group that has taken and distributed a number of Ukrainian classified documents in the past, typically to bring to light the government's duplicity. They've now released a list of planned provocations aimed at escalating the conflict with the DPR/LPR and Russia proper that they claim to have compiled from a number of 'secret' documents they have access to. Their website has been hammered with DDoS since they published, but a mirror is available on colonel cassad.
In brief:
1. A larger and more heavily armed group of ships to be moved into the Kerch Strait, ideally to take casualties in order to blame Russia for 'aggression'.
2. False-flag MLRS attacks of the type that DPR forces have used in the past causing civilian and military CASUALTIES. DPR forces use a type of rocket that neither Russia nor the Ukrainian army does, so it would be easy to blame them in this case.
3. As mentioned earlier, chemical attacks following the Syria template. Likely chlorine but the Ukrainian government has access to significantly more potent compounds including nerve agents.
4. False-flag attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure - fairly self-explanatory. -
2018-12-26 at 3:05 AM UTCAttempted jedi Christm0s presents intercepted above Syria. israeli jets attacked from Lebanese airspace again, firing several cruise missiles from F-16s. Unofficially 22 were fired at an ammunition depot; all but one were intercepted (mostly by PANTSIR units) and the one that made it through injured three soldiers and caused 'minor' damage.
The IDF is again insisting it tried to intercept the SAMs with Patriot missiles; I can only assume they're trying to label the Syrian defence as 'aggression' in their trademark unbelievably convoluted way. -
2018-12-26 at 6:11 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Attempted jedi Christm0s presents intercepted above Syria. israeli jets attacked from Lebanese airspace again, firing several cruise missiles from F-16s. Unofficially 22 were fired at an ammunition depot; all but one were intercepted (mostly by PANTSIR units) and the one that made it through injured three soldiers and caused 'minor' damage.
The IDF is again insisting it tried to intercept the SAMs with Patriot missiles; I can only assume they're trying to label the Syrian defence as 'aggression' in their trademark unbelievably convoluted way.
Russia has made the statement that israel has again tried to hide their jets behind the radar cross-section of a larger plane, this time using civilian airliners landing in Lebanon as cover. Were the SAA not careful, they could've accidentally downed a Lebanese plane in trying to intercept the israeli jets.
This marks a new and dangerous escalation of jedi tricks in the middle east. -
2018-12-26 at 6:14 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Russia has made the statement that israel has again tried to hide their jets behind the radar cross-section of a larger plane, this time using civilian airliners landing in Lebanon as cover. Were the SAA not careful, they could've accidentally downed a Lebanese plane in trying to intercept the israeli jets.
This marks a new and dangerous escalation of jedi tricks in the middle east.
great timing.
theres no governmemt to be held responsible at the moment. -
2018-12-27 at 9:10 AM UTC
Originally posted by vindicktive vinny great timing.
theres no governmemt to be held responsible at the moment.
lol, I haven't been following that. He dissolved the entire government? Is it related to the fraud charges he's facing? Because I don't understand how dissolving the government is meant to help at all.
Oh yeah, that jedi outburst distracted me - the SAA has set up significant positions in the Manbij area directly between the TAF and SDF, meant as a buffer to prevent hostilities from escalating. The SDF is still officially refusing to hand territories over to the SAA, but mid-level commanders are willing to deal and an Egyptian delegation is being sent as a mediator for high-level negotiations. -
2018-12-27 at 9:15 AM UTCI read an interesting comment arguing that Turkey could still come out on top by making Turkey a federation and allowing the Kurds a state within it, at which point he could declare a large chunk of Syria and Iraq Turkish, using the Kurds to cement that claim.
I'd doubt it's a possibility given Erdogan's hateboner for the Kurds and ideological love for the Ottoman empire, but it's a practical possibility, at least in the short term. Russia would not be happy and while they likely wouldn't attempt a military solution, they're capable of making the long-term situation entirely untenable for Turkey. -
2018-12-27 at 9:29 AM UTCOh yeah, the much-hyped S300 systems did not participate in the latest defence - crews will not be properly trained until mid-late January. Their radars are almost certainly integrated with the Syrian air defence network though, meaning they would've had much earlier warning and more robust locks. The F16s delivering the missiles (israeli designation Delilah) had to deploy thermal flares - I don't know if they've had to in the past (as opposed to just exiting SAM range at high speed - Lebanese have often complained of sonic booms at low altitude over their cities), but it's the first time I've seen it reported.
