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Conflict Shitpile IV - Idlib Dawn Edition
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2018-09-14 at 5:52 PM UTCOK, as per tradition, a quick summary:
Yemen
More of the same, really. There's been little change of hands in terms of regional control - it's not likely to end until KSA gets bored and/or goes broke and 'declares victory and leaves'. The US has recently (through Pompeo) given their explicit political support to KSA, giving the example that they admitted to 'accidentally' killing 40 children in an airstrike on a loaded school bus as evidence that they're working with the UN to reduce civilian casualties (yes, you read that correctly), but it's unlikely to entail deeper US involvement - Pompeo's 'seal of approval' was mostly a domestic political play against popular congressional attempts to block US advisors and aerial refuelers from working with the KSA on attacks.
Ukraine
The big question here is when, not if, is Russia going to get involved. The Kiev government has repeatedly show it has no interest in a political solution, from its repeated failure to implement any of the directives of the MINSK-2 agreement to its (contracted?) assassination of several prominent figures in the breakaway Donetsk/Lughansk republics, the latest being Zakharchenko. All of the assassinations were highly professional and followed a similar pattern which hints at an experienced group being responsible - the SBU, Ukrainian intelligence agency, seems an unlikely candidate given the current social and political situation. The answer may be the UK's MI6 - a member of the SBU was recently arrested and is to be tried for treason; he's apparently tried to sell data on recent joint operations between the SBU and MI6 and the reports have been entered into evidence.
Back to escalation - the assassination of Zakharchenko was likely meant to set the stage for another military push to retake the DPR/LPR. It's highly unlikely the operation will succeed, but as far as I know there is nobody among the Kiev government's 'elites' who will even consider serious negotiations with the breakaway regions. Attacks and offensives will continue until one side collapses, and Russia (and Putin personally) is coming under immense domestic pressure to 'stop the bleeding'. He's stated that Russia will not stand idley by should the 'Anti Terrorist Operation' become a massacre, and in a sense it already has (largely through indiscriminant artillery attacks on civilian areas).
Syria
Idlib is the core focus now. Basically, when fighting rebel groups around the country, the SAA gave fighters three options - die, surrender and receive amnesty and work for the SAA (for Syrian citizens only - foreigners, who comprised over 70% of fighters, were given the option to leave) assuming they weren't identified as complicit in serious crimes, or disarm and fuck off to Idlib. The idea was to give the fighters who refused to surrender an option to leave instead of forcing the SAA into intense urban fighting, which would significantly increase the chances of civilian casualties (especially given the rebels' propensity to use them as shields). It had the secondary effect of dumping huge numbers of them in one place though, which has allowed them to restock (largely thanks to Turkey) and reorganise.
Estimates on rebel and civilian populations vary - Idlib houses between 10,000 - 50,000 rebels, the number likely to be closer to the lower end, and 2.5 - 3 million civilians. Idlib was designated a 'de-escalation zone' in the Astana talks, an agreement between Russia, Iran and Turkey, but the ceasefire was never meant to be permanent - Syria will not accept Al-Nusra (the dominant 'rebel' group in Idlib is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Al-Nusra after several rebrands and much infighting with other rebels) holding a major region indefinitely. Russia and Iran are backing Syria on the plan to retake Idlib by force, but Turkey is trying to stall the operation, claiming that a political solution is possible. It seems highly unlikely, but it appears as though plans to storm Idlib have been put on hold - Russian and Syrian airstrikes continue to pound HTS' positions to the south of the city but the ground operation has not begun.
The US has been very vocal about the upcoming Idlib operation - first threatening that if chemical weapons are used, and then simply if the operation goes ahead (after Russia delivered significant evidence that false-flag chemical attacks were being prepared), that further strikes will be enacted against the SAA. It's important to remember that it's never been proven that 'Assad' or the SAA has used any sort of chemical weapon in the conflict, and that the presumed 'chemical attack' that prompted the last US attack has been proven to have never actually happened - people suffering from smoke and dust inhalation were filmed and narrated by the White Helmets to give the impression it was another case of chlorine gas poisoning and the US attacked without verifying the information.
Turkey is the wildcard here as Erdogan has control over a large chunk of the rebels and from the beginning has wanted to use them to annex a chunk of northern Syria (remember, it was largely Turkey, specifically Erdogan's own family, that cultivated and supported ISIS' illegal oil trade). He's in a position now where to remain relevant to Syria's future, he has to find a way to allow the SAA to retake Idlib, but somehow retain the rebels for future use. It's been reported that the plan was for the rebels to surrender in return for political representation, giving Turkey the ability to put pressure on Syrian policy in the future, but it seems as though the rebels in control of Idlib (the aforementioned HTS, who Saudi Arabia have a much larger stake in than Turkey) have no interest in a political solution. There have been rumours among rebel sources that Turkey is rearming fighters in Idlib to resist the upcoming SAA advance, but it seems more likely to be an attempt to raise morale. There's no evidence of Turkish convoys entering Syria proper; the ones referred to were used to resupply forces 'guarding' the Turkish border.
An interesting development - The Netherlands has ceased funding and supporting 'rebel groups', and amusingly enough, several of the groups they were funding are registered terrorist groups... There's an ongoing criminal case against a citizen for trying to leave the country to join them. On one hand, it signals a shift in western thinking - they're starting to finally understand that the rebellion is over and Syria has won, but on the other it's really just a cynical play so that Syria will consider them for lucrative contracts to rebuild the country now that the horse they backed has been shot.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2018-09-14 at 6:01 PM UTC*Keep in mind Erdogan is quite literally insane and my assumption that he'll act rationally might be a huge mistake
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2018-09-14 at 7:12 PM UTCnigger
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2018-09-15 at 10:31 AM UTCsubbed.
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2018-09-15 at 10:53 PM UTCSyria
jedistrikes have hit Damascus airport again; they apparently damaged the radar of an S200 complex. Several objects are reported to have been intercepted, possibly a jet, but no official statement yet.
I haven't seen any reason for the attack yet. -
2018-09-16 at 6 AM UTCI'm so focused on what's going on in the rest of the world that the first place i hear my government has stopped funding terrorists is from an Australian on a website hosted and run by an American.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2018-09-16 at 3:16 PM UTClol, I'm the same way. I didn't realise our prime minister got sacked until a few days after it happened; considering all that's going on in the world, domestic politics seem rather inconsequential
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2018-09-16 at 7:52 PM UTC
Apparently Al-Nusra's media arm has been circulating this document that urges the people of KSA to 'rise against' their government because:
1. It's become too secular
2. They're putting too much pressure on Qatar, who is their 'primary benefactor'.
It's obviously just been fed to them from Saudi Arabia in order to make it look like they're 'progressive' and not supporting terrorists in Syria, but amusing nonetheless. -
2018-09-16 at 8:13 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Syria
jedistrikes have hit Damascus airport again; they apparently damaged the radar of an S200 complex. Several objects are reported to have been intercepted, possibly a jet, but no official statement yet.
I haven't seen any reason for the attack yet.
Still no official word, but there was at least 1 hit and several intercepts. The target was apparently an Iranian cargo plane that had landed several hours earlier, presumably israel will claim that it contained weapons to be transferred to Hezbullah. -
2018-09-17 at 3:21 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra *Keep in mind Erdogan is quite literally insane and my assumption that he'll act rationally might be a huge mistake
Following Erdogan's meeting with Putin, Turkey is now reinforcing military positions in and around Idlib. Erdogan's more or less saying that the people within the region favour Turkey over Russia, Iran or even Syria, so it sounds to me that he tried and failed to convince Putin to push Assad to give up Idlib.
This is going to get very messy. -
2018-09-17 at 3:42 PM UTCWell I didn't know zakharchenko was who was assassinated. He was fucking adorable, he lead the dpr during the debaltsevo operation. I remember seeing him on their day of glory after taking the pocket and signing the Minsk agreement. Cut to the supreme leader of the dpr and he's WHACKED on painkillers in a hospital bed after fucking his foot up post battle, spouting pro Russian rhetoric it was so fucking cute. RIP
I think idlib is going to be messy. Messier than Aleppo because they had been fighting there for so long and the encirclement was an inevitability. I really can't speculate other than bash is going to win and it's going to be messy
Now I'm more and more interested in post war Syria. It's going to need a ton of infrastructure and I want it to go to Lebanese construction firms. The Lebanese economy (esp banking sector) is in a dangerous place right now and they need it. However, someone has to bankroll it and it likely won't be Russia Iran or Syria. Syrians I've met have talked about going back if things get better but we'll see. Land I'll be cheap as Fuck, bash will probably offer huge swaths for cheap then seize it for dubious reasons.
I read a book by Thomas jedigreedman written in the late 80s that basically predicted the war and the sectarian divide and talked in great length about bashs dad clamping down on a hama uprising. The conflict is so multifaceted predictions are so hard to make now. -
2018-09-17 at 3:43 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Following Erdogan's meeting with Putin, Turkey is now reinforcing military positions in and around Idlib. Erdogan's more or less saying that the people within the region favour Turkey over Russia, Iran or even Syria, so it sounds to me that he tried and failed to convince Putin to push Assad to give up Idlib.
This is going to get very messy.
lol, lets see how the New Ottoman Empire fares in the Nuclear Age. -
2018-09-17 at 4:47 PM UTC
Originally posted by MORALLY SUPERIOR BEING 2.0 - The GMO Reckoning lol, lets see how the New Ottoman Empire fares in the Nuclear Age.
what nuclear age ?
whens the last time any country was free to deploy any nuclear weapon, tactical or otherwise ?
its like the second amendment. its there to let you bear arms but the moment you really want to shoot somebody, oh no you cant, because thats taboo. -
2018-09-17 at 11:03 PM UTCMore missile attacks, this time against Latakia/Tartous and originating 'from the sea'. For the first time Russian interceptors fired off in defence instead of just providing data to the Syrian network. The missiles were allegedly delivered via UAV with many missiles and several UAVs being brought down, but there was one reported hit inside a Syrian military facility.
The local media has speculated it was either Israel or the US, some have accused Idlib rebels of staging the attacks but they've never been able to mount one of this scale and they've not been able to attack from the west in the past.
I've usually been able to get relatively detailed information on alleged jedistrikes, but it seems to be a lot quieter lately... -
2018-09-18 at 12:14 AM UTCFour israeli jets and missiles from a French frigate, according to the Russian MoD. One of their IL-20s (long range recon jet) has disappeared too. This is big.
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2018-09-18 at 1:29 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Four israeli jets and missiles from a French frigate, according to the Russian MoD. One of their IL-20s (long range recon jet) has disappeared too. This is big.
the il-20 isnt a jet...its an antique prop-job related to the US P3 orion...a typical commie tactic of stealing and copying foreign systems. that is why its nickname was the 'p3-ski.' in a nutshell, the bird that magically disappeared was for recon.
allegedly the syrians shot it down but ultimately no one knows. it could have crashed on its own. theyre notorious for that sort of thing. -
2018-09-18 at 1:34 AM UTCYeah I've heard that theory as well but I doubt it - the Russian and Syrian air defence systems are networked specifically to share targeting data, if they did fuck up and hit it it should've been obvious
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2018-09-18 at 2:05 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Yeah I've heard that theory as well but I doubt it - the Russian and Syrian air defence systems are networked specifically to share targeting data, if they did fuck up and hit it it should've been obvious
those things are big and most SAMs dont have warheads large enough to completely destroy an aircraft of that size (unless a fuel tank detonates) which would give the crew time to squirt out a few 'maydayski maydayski's' which should have been on open frequencies to be heard by anyone. (the joke is the il-38 'MAY' is related to the missing aircraft) -
2018-09-18 at 3:15 AM UTCAlso I feel like I should talk about the autocephaly in the orthodox church, the attempt to split the church as a means to attack Russia's social cohesion but I really don't understand it all that well.
http://www.stalkerzone.org/rostislav-ishchenko-the-patriarchate-of-constantinople-started-a-war-that-cannot-be-stopped/ -
2018-09-18 at 3:24 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Also I feel like I should talk about the autocephaly in the orthodox church, the attempt to split the church as a means to attack Russia's social cohesion but I really don't understand it all that well.
http://www.stalkerzone.org/rostislav-ishchenko-the-patriarchate-of-constantinople-started-a-war-that-cannot-be-stopped/
I imagine because they see the Russian orthodox as an extension of the Kremlin and don t want it encroaching on their sect which is likely basically the same thing.
Those Baltic states can be pretty unreasonable and hostile at times. They're still really butthurt bout Soviet times. Yeah let's have a bloc of a dozen countries conduct hostile war games at your border but if any of your jets come within 200 miles it's an international incident
