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Are you looking forward to the big war with Iran?
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2024-04-22 at 5:11 PM UTC
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2024-04-22 at 9:44 PM UTCThe videos of jedis exploding are great, please keep those coming.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2024-04-22 at 9:53 PM UTCThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2024-04-22 at 11:19 PM UTC
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2024-04-22 at 11:20 PM UTC
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2024-04-22 at 11:21 PM UTC
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2024-04-22 at 11:27 PM UTC
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2024-04-23 at 3:50 AM UTChttps://sonar21.com/ted-postols-analysis-of-irans-missile-attack-on-israel/
interesting analysis of the videos of the missile attack/response by "Theodore Postol, Professor of Science, Technology and National Security Policy in the Program in Science, Technology, and Society at MIT".
short version is it seems from the video evidence a significant number of missiles landed given the audio and reflections on clouds indicate offscreen impacts in most of the videos, and many are intentionally cut off because of IDF gag orders.
the majority of drones and missiles intercepted in the videos posted were by air-to-air missiles launched from fighter jets, and the surface interceptors (PATRIOTs, IRON DOME, ARROW, SLING etc.) appear to have been largely ineffective. typically their doctrine is to fire two interceptors to guarantee (or at least have a high chance of) a kill but even against old KATYUSHA rockets (literally the first ballistic artillery rockets mass-produced) they're often having to expend many more interceptors, up to 16 to ensure a kill.
with current doctrine it's way more expensive for the defender than the attacker in a sustained missile attack (israel reportedly spent $1.3 billion defending, whereas Iran spent maybe $200 million, probably a lot less, in materials alone), and if Iran were to do this twice a week (which in all likelihood, they could) israel would be unable to defend its airspace in... probably a week. -
2024-04-23 at 2:55 PM UTC
Originally posted by ner vegas https://sonar21.com/ted-postols-analysis-of-irans-missile-attack-on-israel/
interesting analysis of the videos of the missile attack/response by "Theodore Postol, Professor of Science, Technology and National Security Policy in the Program in Science, Technology, and Society at MIT".
short version is it seems from the video evidence a significant number of missiles landed given the audio and reflections on clouds indicate offscreen impacts in most of the videos, and many are intentionally cut off because of IDF gag orders.
the majority of drones and missiles intercepted in the videos posted were by air-to-air missiles launched from fighter jets, and the surface interceptors (PATRIOTs, IRON DOME, ARROW, SLING etc.) appear to have been largely ineffective. typically their doctrine is to fire two interceptors to guarantee (or at least have a high chance of) a kill but even against old KATYUSHA rockets (literally the first ballistic artillery rockets mass-produced) they're often having to expend many more interceptors, up to 16 to ensure a kill.
with current doctrine it's way more expensive for the defender than the attacker in a sustained missile attack (israel reportedly spent $1.3 billion defending, whereas Iran spent maybe $200 million, probably a lot less, in materials alone), and if Iran were to do this twice a week (which in all likelihood, they could) israel would be unable to defend its airspace in… probably a week.
yea but how many salvos of 300 (projectiles) iran could reasonably sustain. -
2024-04-23 at 3:04 PM UTCThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2024-04-23 at 6:54 PM UTC
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2024-04-23 at 6:55 PM UTCTurbanheads tend to work rather quickly.
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2024-04-23 at 11:51 PM UTC
Originally posted by ner vegas they have stockpiles in the tens of thousands and are continually manufacturing them
if their numbers are known then their storage location can also be known.
when push comes to shove the US can step in do a saturation bombing of these possible storage location as well unless iran have advanced AD.
they dont. -
2024-04-23 at 11:52 PM UTC
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2024-04-24 at 12:13 AM UTCI'd airdrop thousands of swine on them.
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2024-04-24 at 12:20 AM UTC
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2024-04-24 at 1:31 AM UTC
Originally posted by Charles Ex Machina if their numbers are known then their storage location can also be known.
when push comes to shove the US can step in do a saturation bombing of these possible storage location as well unless iran have advanced AD.
they dont.
1. they do have a significant AA/AD network
2. missile storage is largely deep underground
3. the US tried that against Yemen and failed miserably -
2024-04-24 at 2:11 AM UTC
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2024-04-24 at 2:12 AM UTC
Originally posted by Charles Ex Machina if their numbers are known then their storage location can also be known.
when push comes to shove the US can step in do a saturation bombing of these possible storage location as well unless iran have advanced AD.
they dont.
false
the US doesnt have a non-nuclear option to penetrate deeply enough into even the known underground storage facilities they have...who knows what they have that the kikes havent discovered -
2024-04-24 at 7:05 PM UTC
Originally posted by ner vegas from Pepe Escobar, he hasn't written a full article yet, jus posted it on telegram:
while I don't think it's possible that an armed nuclear weapon went down over Iraq and there's no obvious recovery effort, that doesn't preclude some other kind of EMP weapon. even then I'd think the US would make an effort to recover F-35 parts to prevent hostile states from analysing them.
though it's also likely it's a story being circulated by pro-israeli agents in order to show 'we can go hard and we were going to, but we're not allowed' in order to save face for not responding to the Iranian attack.
Larry Johnson doesn't think it's likely either.
https://sonar21.com/pepe-escobar-ignites-social-media/
been thinking about this. Pepe did a podcast and doubled down, saying that he'd received the same information from two sources in state intelligence services in separate countries, and that there was more information that he couldn't release yet. others suggested that he was likely being given false information to discredit him but he's still convinced otherwise. he believes that the major players involved are keeping the entire affair secret to maintain global stability.
I'll draw up a map to illustrate some points later.
I don't think a plane carrying a nuclear weapon was shot down, but I do believe something is being kept secret.
1. the attempted target of the drone attack inside Iran was a radar station managing AA/AD operations in the Isfahan region. alone it would've been a very minor attack, but if israel was responsible it was more likely an attempt to open Iranian airspace to further strikes.
2. israeli media, and by extension Western media intensely hyped 'israel's responses', even going so far as to publish various unrelated photos and video as soon as preliminary reports from Iran came in. when it turned out the attack was minor and failed, it was effectively memoryholed - the implication being that something bigger was planned but effectively failed to launch.
3. assuming that Pepe's story is true, the US, Russia and israel would have had to agree to keep the incident quiet. in this scenario, though, the plane would've gone down over Iraq or Syria, neither of which would agree. further still, Iranian-aligned PMUs operate in the west of both countries, and would be unlikely to accept a gag order even if the government did.
a plane going down is one thing to keep quiet, a foreign mission to recover a nuclear weapon, or at least an F-35 is another entirely.
5. for these reasons it seems likely there was some kind of abortive attack; perhaps a strike was planned but the attacker was forced out of Iraqi-Syrian airspace, or perhaps long-range missiles were launched but forced off course
