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First Conflict of 2022

  1. #1
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    Predict correctly, win a prize maybe. No idea what. I've loosely ordered them from most to least likely in my opinion, but I'll probably change my mind by the time I finish writing.

    1. Taiwan - China's making noise to retake it, the US is antagonising by dropping the 'one China' policy and ramping up weapons sales. Seems likely - for all their talk it's unlikely the US would intervene directly, but they'll use it for political points after the fact. The massive effect on the world economy is a deterrent though; Taiwanese leadership have essentially said the first thing they'll do in the case of a Chinese attack is level all their semiconductor/IC infrastructure.

    2. Ukraine - Western media's constantly banging on about 'the Russians coming!', but Russia stands to gain nothing by attacking. If anything, the west would win if Russia became entangled in a conflict with the Ukraine because rebuilding even just the East to the point where it could be integrated into the Federation would be a massive drain on their economy. Most likely scenario is the Ukrainian government going hard on the breakaway Eastern provinces and drawing Russia in on 'humanitarian' reasons, through massacres and/or a massive exodus across the border.

    3. Middle East - a lot of things simmering and being overshadowed by the above because they don't directly relate to a peer military. Syria is still a mess, largely thanks to Turkey. Political power in Afghanistan is being undermined and attacked by various intelligence agencies to prevent them becoming economically or politically close to China. Iran just today fired off AA guns at one of their biggest nuclear facilities (there's no real will to return to the JCPOA), claiming it was a drill. OPEC's oil output capacity, and hence their power and stability, is waning.

    4. European Missile Crisis - Russia's just now issued NATO with an ultimatum - come to an agreement limiting missile deployment in Europe, specifically in previous 'buffer' states like the Ukraine and Poland, or Russia will begin deploying strategic weapons much closer to key NATO locations and the US homeland. This is a direct parallel to the Cuban Missile Crisis. The US will not respond to the ultimatum, so you can expect to see deployment of strategic missile systems in places like Belarus and the Arctic, as well as mobile platforms in the Atlantic such as traditional SLBMs alongside concealed platforms like the Club-K (though those systems are more likely to house ASBMs, not nuclear weapons or traditional ballistic missiles). This is more likely to be gradual escalation than direct conflict, but Russia's overwhelming superiority in the field of missiles and interception and the US' abject refusal to negotiate as equals makes it very volatile.

    5. Civil War inside the US - This one is a wildcard. Seems unlikely, but never really off the table. There's more and more friction between states and the feds with the latest example being the Oklahoma National Guard telling the federal government to get fucked over their vaccine mandate. It gets worse with increased partisan divides, and worse still with the entire federal administration being so profoundly unpopular.
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  2. #2
    Jen Psaki is the black cat omen of demise in eastern Europe

  3. #3
    Originally posted by aldra Predict correctly, win a prize maybe. No idea what. I've loosely ordered them from most to least likely in my opinion, but I'll probably change my mind by the time I finish writing.

    1. Taiwan - China's making noise to retake it, the US is antagonising by dropping the 'one China' policy and ramping up weapons sales. Seems likely - for all their talk it's unlikely the US would intervene directly, but they'll use it for political points after the fact. The massive effect on the world economy is a deterrent though; Taiwanese leadership have essentially said the first thing they'll do in the case of a Chinese attack is level all their semiconductor/IC infrastructure.

    taiwanese leadership is run by a person with pussy, therefore nothing that comes out of it is credible. they're just US poopets and they parrot what US wants it to.

    2. Ukraine - Western media's constantly banging on about 'the Russians coming!', but Russia stands to gain nothing by attacking. If anything, the west would win if Russia became entangled in a conflict with the Ukraine because rebuilding even just the East to the point where it could be integrated into the Federation would be a massive drain on their economy. Most likely scenario is the Ukrainian government going hard on the breakaway Eastern provinces and drawing Russia in on 'humanitarian' reasons, through massacres and/or a massive exodus across the border.

    in regards to ukraine the US tactics are more of a passive-aggressive provocations. everytime putin reiterates his redlines that he didnt want crossed and the US just keep crossing it the song 'toy soldiers' by eminem went off in my head.

    the dies are set, the US want a proxy war with russia and ukraine would be it.

    3. Middle East - a lot of things simmering and being overshadowed by the above because they don't directly relate to a peer military. Syria is still a mess, largely thanks to Turkey. Political power in Afghanistan is being undermined and attacked by various intelligence agencies to prevent them becoming economically or politically close to China. Iran just today fired off AA guns at one of their biggest nuclear facilities (there's no real will to return to the JCPOA), claiming it was a drill. OPEC's oil output capacity, and hence their power and stability, is waning.

    turkey wont matter anymore because erdoganomics is going to implode, collapse and then prolapse. once that happen the military will take over again and another reset will ensue.

    the only real question is how far will iran respond to jéwsrael attack this time, and will biden be onboard. based on how things are going, it seems like anti-semites in biden admin is still in charge, so i dont think US is going to be directly involved should minor conflict eruptes between jéwsrael and iran. and neither will the arabs.

    4. European Missile Crisis - Russia's just now issued NATO with an ultimatum - come to an agreement limiting missile deployment in Europe, specifically in previous 'buffer' states like the Ukraine and Poland, or Russia will begin deploying strategic weapons much closer to key NATO locations and the US homeland. This is a direct parallel to the Cuban Missile Crisis. The US will not respond to the ultimatum, so you can expect to see deployment of strategic missile systems in places like Belarus and the Arctic, as well as mobile platforms in the Atlantic such as traditional SLBMs alongside concealed platforms like the Club-K (though those systems are more likely to house ASBMs, not nuclear weapons or traditional ballistic missiles). This is more likely to be gradual escalation than direct conflict, but Russia's overwhelming superiority in the field of missiles and interception and the US' abject refusal to negotiate as equals makes it very volatile.

    there will not be a so called "eu missile crisis" simply because eu defense officials and foreign affair ministers, mostly unmanned, will be too dumb and too retarded to realize they have hitchhiked themselves into a missile crisis, and will continue to assume everything is fine.

    it takes two to conflict and since the EU does not and will acknowledge there is a conflict, nothing happens.

    5. Civil War inside the US - This one is a wildcard. Seems unlikely, but never really off the table. There's more and more friction between states and the feds with the latest example being the Oklahoma National Guard telling the federal government to get fucked over their vaccine mandate. It gets worse with increased partisan divides, and worse still with the entire federal administration being so profoundly unpopular.

    if by "civil war" you meant what happened between the north and the south in the past, it will not happen. simply because "americans" these days no longer have what it takes to sustain and maintain that kind of endeavor. there are going to be riots and unrests, and maybe a few mass shootings and mass casualty events when the shelves run bare, but thats it.

    life in the US is just too confortable for "americans" to return to valley forge and people who say there are going to be a civil war soon just want an excuse to buy tactical dresses like fat girls using prom night as excuses to buy pretty prom dresses that
    they'll never get to wear.

    because none will ask them out.
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  4. #4
    cigreting Naturally Camouflaged
    Originally posted by the man who put it in my hood Jen Psaki is the black cat omen of demise in eastern Europe


    thats things a tranny
  5. #5
    Ukraine
    Usaw
    Ukickedass
  6. #6
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    I krame
  7. #7
    Meikai African Astronaut
    Greece and Turkey
  8. #8
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    how so? Greece has been Turkey's bitch for a while now and they don't have the stability to turn the situation around
  9. #9
    Meikai African Astronaut
    Originally posted by aldra how so? Greece has been Turkey's bitch for a while now and they don't have the stability to turn the situation around

    I have my sources.

  10. #10
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    K
  11. #11
    Why is Earth vs Aliens not on the list?
  12. #12
    lockedin Houston
    The author of this post has returned to nothingness
  13. #13
    Bradley Space Nigga
    North Korea will do missile testing, this will cause China to tell them to stop, America will kowtow to China's power over North Korea, and while Biden is still smiling, Xinping will run up Taiwan.

    They've been planning this for awhile.

    Nothing globally will be done aside from a saigon style removal of Democratic leaders. We will ask China to stop and they will, for a short while.

    We did this with Hitler in the 30s, remember?
  14. #14
    POLECAT POLECAT is a motherfucking ferret [my presentably immunised ammonification]
    I call Killary getting the VP position camela gets the boot joe dies and killary is queen, the people rebell and china and russia will descend on us from all sides and split the usa at the Mississippi river
  15. #15
    maddie Houston
    umm.. there has been conflict and Russia has slowly been taking back land for the past 30 years in a constant battle already.. So you might need to remove Ukraine from the poll since conflict already happens every day there between Russia.
  16. #16
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    Outside of semi-secretly supplying the rebels, Russia hasn't been directly involved in the conflict there since retaking the Crimea (which was essentially Ukraine in name only thanks to Kruschev's drunken antics).
  17. #17
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    Originally posted by POLECAT I call Killary getting the VP position camela gets the boot joe dies and killary is queen, the people rebell and china and russia will descend on us from all sides and split the usa at the Mississippi river

    you think Hillary would play second fiddle to Kamala?
  18. #18
    maddie Houston
    Originally posted by aldra Outside of semi-secretly supplying the rebels, Russia hasn't been directly involved in the conflict there since retaking the Crimea (which was essentially Ukraine in name only thanks to Kruschev's drunken antics).

    Half of my family lives in Ukraine.. yes they have conflict constantly. there is warfare and deaths multiple times a week.
  19. #19
    Nile bump
    I guess I'll read up on the news.

    Haven't been keeping up on any geopolitical events while dealing with my culty fanclub stalkers.

    I'm assuming we're talking peer vs peer direct kinetic clashes? No "freedumb fiters" or Economic warfare included as that would already be happening.

    Give me a few days I suppose. Ya know I'm gonna have to open Reddit for this? Fuck.


    Originally posted by maddie Half of my family lives in Ukraine.. yes they have conflict constantly. there is warfare and deaths multiple times a week.

    non-white confirmed.
  20. #20
    Sudo Dark Matter [my hereto riemannian peach]
    I'm not sure what the threshold for conflict is ITT, people die everyday in most of those zones but I really hope Taiwan forces china's hand and exposes their weak interior
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