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Poll: Answer.
- A+B
- B
Newcomb's Paradox Thread
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2021-11-13 at 7:38 PM UTC
Originally posted by Lanny So your choice has no causal impact on what box b contains? And you get box b with either choice right?
Then the only thing you’re choosing between is getting 1k more than you would have otherwise. Sure sounds like A+B is correct.
Omega's prediction of your choice is the only thing with a causal impact on what box b contains, and Omega's predictions correlate extremely well with the actual choice players make. Your choice could conflict with the prediction, it's just unlikely. Knowing this to be true, you should select the box using a strategy which maximizes for utility in cases for which "my choice will match the prediction" is true (because it is the most likely case). -
2021-11-13 at 7:53 PM UTCI would preferentially pick box A as I am a person who hedges his bets, alternatively I would walk away from the hallucination presenting me with boxes.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2021-11-13 at 7:54 PM UTChttps://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JTekFwz3rWjsirBbr/2020-philpapers-survey-results
People who agree with one boxers: aestheticians and Greco-Roman philosophy enjoyers
People who agree with two boxers: basically every other field of philosophy
I have the power of Zeus and anime on my side.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2021-11-13 at 9 PM UTCThe author of this post has returned to nothingness
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2021-11-13 at 9:28 PM UTC
Originally posted by lockedin pointless question because there is no free will and therefore any 'choice' is illusory
i burn both boxes and contemplate a horrific realisation: alien life exists, which proves that the universe is not a cold, sterile machine that in once instance fucked up and generated life and intelligence - a mistake easily corrected by a single large scale nuclear detonation on one planet - but is in fact a torture chamber that must do this on the regular
In doing so you have exercised free will and thus defeated your own point. -
2021-11-13 at 9:30 PM UTC
Originally posted by Meikai Like I said, no. Depending on your choice, you just get a fuckton of utility on the basis of whether Omega was right or wrong. Not brownie points - the thing we actually care about. Ignoring the fact that Omega is more likely than not to be right is asinine.
It has literally nothing to do with whether Omega is right or wrong. Even granted Omega is probably right, it just has nothing to do with the actual choice whatsoever. The choice is simply whether or not to take $1000 more than whatever you got in box B. -
2021-11-13 at 9:38 PM UTC
Originally posted by Meikai Omega's prediction of your choice is the only thing with a causal impact on what box b contains, and Omega's predictions correlate extremely well with the actual choice players make. Your choice could conflict with the prediction, it's just unlikely. Knowing this to be true, you should select the box using a strategy which maximizes for utility in cases for which "my choice will match the prediction" is true (because it is the most likely case).
No that's a complete non-sequitur. This has nothing to do with conflicting with the prediction, that would only be incidental it's just not disallowed by the setup.
Omega already made its prediction and left. $1 mill is not going to materialize in the box if it isn't already in there and vice versa, it's not going to disappear if it is. You have no idea what Omega predicted.
Your only choice is whatever is in B or that plus $1000.
If you choose B-only then you are a rube and a sucker and deserve to get $0. -
2021-11-13 at 9:51 PM UTC
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2021-11-13 at 10:02 PM UTCThe author of this post has returned to nothingness
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2021-11-13 at 10:11 PM UTC
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2021-11-13 at 10:16 PM UTC
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2021-11-13 at 10:19 PM UTC
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2021-11-13 at 10:22 PM UTC
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2021-11-13 at 10:24 PM UTC
Originally posted by Nigger Nintendo No you will consistently get $1000 less than whatever you could have gotten.
Which will usually be $1000000. You will consistently get $1000 more than whatever you could have gotten, which will usually be $1000. ie I will usually, reliably end up with $999000 more than you. Your strategy never loses entirely but seldom wins, my strategy often wins and seldom loses entirely. -
2021-11-13 at 10:29 PM UTC
Originally posted by I Live In Your Crawlspace Secretly4 I've been thinking about it 🤔 and it seems it I take box B then box A is gone FOREVER, I deprive anyone els from being able to choose it so so I like the idea of that ( especially knowing what I know now, that doing so will make anyone who plays after me a Millionair e. But it's a little bit unclear how much of this info we would get upfront honestly
Cause this could be one of those things where you're like kr0zes dad saying "Doug… You're trying to outsmart the game and pick an option that doesn't exist, just play the game by the rules.. "
LOL 😂 -
2021-11-13 at 10:31 PM UTCRIP Bill Krozby
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2021-11-14 at 1:02 AM UTC
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2021-11-14 at 1:03 AM UTC
Originally posted by Meikai Which will usually be $1000000. You will consistently get $1000 more than whatever you could have gotten, which will usually be $1000. ie I will usually, reliably end up with $999000 more than you. Your strategy never loses entirely but seldom wins, my strategy often wins and seldom loses entirely.
Your strategy guarantees you nothing, you have no idea what Omega predicted. -
2021-11-14 at 1:07 AM UTCObviously Uriel would speak thus: A+B.
Then ask: what was your preferred choice? Now you know. Now we judge. -
2021-11-14 at 1:13 AM UTC
