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Iraq - Major Escalation Underway (January 2020)
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2020-01-11 at 2:27 AM UTC
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2020-01-11 at 2:34 AM UTChow is that relevant at the moment
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2020-01-11 at 2:38 AM UTC
Originally posted by Technologist So, first trump’s peeps tell the senate and congress that Soleimani was an imminent threat, so we had to take him out.
Trump realized that they were not accepting that explanation, so he changed it yesterday to saying that Soleimani had plans to blow up two of our embassies. Lol. What a fucking liar. That was never mentioned the day before to the senate or congress.
Wonder what his next lie is? No scratch that, I don’t need to know. It’ll flow out of his mouth like diarrhea.
Newest lie. Now Soleimani was targeting 4 of our embassies. That’s from trump’s mouth. Hell Pompeo talked today too, but would not give specifics.
Idiots. -
2020-01-11 at 2:40 AM UTC
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2020-01-11 at 2:41 AM UTC
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2020-01-11 at 2:48 AM UTC
Originally posted by Technologist Newest lie. Now Soleimani was targeting 4 of our embassies. That’s from trump’s mouth. Hell Pompeo talked today too, but would not give specifics.
Idiots.
I see it as sad you hate your country. Trump killed a bad guy, you said it yourself. Why keep on hating your own country? Do you know how lucky you are to say what you do? -
2020-01-11 at 2:49 AM UTCInteresting developments relating to the 737 that went down:
1. Ukrainian investigators have access to the black boxes and other evidence.
2. Whatever happened to the plane happened after it's last scheduled checkin with control towers, and flight data shows that the plane attempted to make a U-turn and land before it went down.
3. Ukrainian authorities are being pressured to blame Iran even before the facts are known, but Zelensky is wary of getting involved in foreign conflicts, especially after Porky.
4. The missile strike video has still not been verified, with only Bellingcat and the NYT officially saying they believe it to be genuine. -
2020-01-11 at 2:51 AM UTCThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2020-01-11 at 2:56 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Interesting developments relating to the 737 that went down:
1. Ukrainian investigators have access to the black boxes and other evidence.
2. Whatever happened to the plane happened after it's last scheduled checkin with control towers, and flight data shows that the plane attempted to make a U-turn and land before it went down.
3. Ukrainian authorities are being pressured to blame Iran even before the facts are known, but Zelensky is wary of getting involved in foreign conflicts, especially after Porky.
4. The missile strike video has still not been verified, with only Bellingcat and the NYT officially saying they believe it to be genuine.
The pics from the wreckage clearly shows shrapnel holes. -
2020-01-11 at 2:58 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra 4. The missile strike video has still not been verified, with only Bellingcat and the NYT officially saying they believe it to be genuine.
You mean the short video, with a flash and a boom? There's a longer one out there shot from farther away, the plane seems to light up a couple of times, not in a catastrophic impact kind of way, but in an engine fire kind of way. It ends when the plane impacts the ground. Unfortunately there's no sound, at least in the copy i saw. -
2020-01-11 at 3:05 AM UTC
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2020-01-11 at 3:06 AM UTC
Originally posted by -SpectraL The pics from the wreckage clearly shows shrapnel holes.
If you look at the high-resolution photos, much of what are claimed as 'shrapnel holes' are actually rocks and dirt that cast a shadow.
That said, you'd probably see sporadic puncture marks if the cause of crash were catastrophic engine failure too. -
2020-01-11 at 3:16 AM UTC
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2020-01-11 at 3:38 AM UTCYeah I've seen maybe 3 of the plane actually going down, that's the only one that seems to clearly show a missile strike though.
Most people are basing the TOR-M1 theory on that video indicating a missile attack and other reports of people seeing/hearing 2 missiles, as that particular complex is known to fire 2 missiles per target. -
2020-01-11 at 3:41 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra We're starting the New Year with a bang, apparently - Iraq appears to be going up in flames, and it's quite likely to spread all across the Middle East.
This current episode starts with a rocket attack (MLRS rocket artillery) on the Iraqi K1 Airbase on the 27/12/19, killing one US contractor, two Iraqi military and injuring several Iraqi and US soldiers. The US immediately blamed an Iraqi PMU, 'Khataib Hezbullah', for the attack and launched airstrikes against five installations that it characterised as 'KH bases'. The airstrikes killed 32 and injured 40+, among the dead and wounded both members of PMUs (which are now officially part of the Iraqi military) and Iraqi military regulars in the Missile Brigades. Following this attack hundreds of protesters attempted to enter the US Embassy in Baghdad (following on from mass-funerals held for the killed soldiers), overwhelming Iraqi security forces and pushing into the 'Green Zone'. In response the US military deployed around 100 marines to defend the embassy, using tear gas and less-lethal munitions to deter the protesters. The majority of them were eventually dispersed at the request of the Iraqi government and PMU leadership. On the 3/01/2020, a new attack was launched against Baghdad International Airport, ostensibly with the same 107mm rockets that'd been used previously. The rockets did little material damage to the airport but started fires, forcing it to be temporarily shut down, and destroyed the vehicle of Mohammed Redha Al-Jabri, a high-ranking official with the PMUs. Two others traveling with him were also killed, though their names have not yet been released - at the moment, one is thought to be Qassam Soleimani.
There's a lot to unpack here, so let's start from the beginning - the facts of the original K1 attack.
The Iraqi K1 airbase is known to be a hub for US PMC (Private Military Companies such as Blackwater/Academi etc.) activity, though it's also manned by Iraqi and US regular military. The attack was a barrage of ~30 107mm KAYTUSHA-style rocket artillery and killed one US contracter, two Iraqi soldiers and injured several others. The US immediately placed the blame on the Khata'ib Hezbullah PMU (Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Units are paramailitary groups that were raised to fight ISIS and were later officially folded into the Iraqi military) without providing any evidence or explanation as to why they would have targeted an Iraqi military installation rather than US forces directly. Iraqi Special Forces found what was thought to be the launch site, a makeshift MLRS rack welded into the bed of a truck, and took several photos:
There are some interesting points here:
1. Missiles do not appear to have been fired from here. Blowback would've blackened the entire enclosure, not just the actual racks.
2. Racks are at much too low an angle for rocket artillery and do not appear to be adjustable.
3. Four unfired missiles were left in the rack, likely to prove an 'Iranian link'.
3. The missiles, Iranian-made KATYUSHA clones, are of the very same batch that have been recovered from (US-backed and armed) SDF/YPG bunkers in Syria (http://archive.is/wip/r8Asr).
So we have an indiscriminate attack that happens to kill a US contractor and what is likely a staged launch site meant to point the finger at Iran. The US immediately blames an Iraqi PMU called 'Khataib Hezbullah' on the basis that it regards Hezbullah as a terrorist group, even though KH is not officially affiliated with it and does not fall under its command. Hezbullah literally translates to 'Party/Group of God' and is not an uncommon name among fighting units in general. KH in particular has fully Iraqi leadership and reports directly into the military chain of command.
It's also worth noting that the name of the contractor killed has not been released, which is strange as the US media usually plays up deaths and the loss felt by their families to generate emotional support for a military response. It is possible that the contractor death was entirely fabricated.
Next - in response to the attack, the US launched airstrikes against 5 installations it claimed to be 'Khataib Hezbullah bases'. First and foremost, KH is an Iraqi PMU and does not operate alone. The bases attacked were combined PMU/Military (PMUs are now officially part of the Iraqi military, so these attacks were directed in whole against the Iraqi military), and there were significant casualties among both the PMUs and Missile Brigades. I'll leave this one at a few notes because much more pressing issues have come up.
1. None of the bases were within 300km or so of K1, meaning none of the people killed could've been directly involved in the initial attack.
2. All of the targets were either part of or in the region of the Al-Qaim border crossing, which has long been a point of contention. It's the only border checkpoint between Iraq and Syria currently open, and it was opened by the Iraqi government to incessant protests from the US and israel. Since its opening it's been regularly attacked by israeli assets operating out of US bases. Essentially, the US wants to be the only party able to control transit into and out of Syria.
Finally, there was a barrage of assumed-KATYUSHA missiles against the Damascus International Airport. The airport itself wasn't significantly damaged, but it was temporarily shut down due to fires and it was initially reported that a car was struck in front of the airport, killing its occupants.
This was immediately treated as suspicious because the road in question is a highway with almost no traffic, meaning that the car struck was not parked and likely would've been traveling at 80+km/h, making a random strike unlikely. As it turned out, the initial missile barrage was used as a distraction to mask a targeted drone strike against that car, which killed at least two high-ranking Iraqi PMU officials as well as Qassam Soleimani, the Iranian head of the Al-Quds force and IRGC (which was only very recently confirmed).
As it stands, there are more questions that answers. It seems to me that the initial attack was staged in order to enact a pre-planned 'response', but several of the steps still do not make sense. This leads me to believe that parts are still in motion. Will post more later.
Except those were not the type of missiles that were fired. Notice the word missile and not rocket? -
2020-01-11 at 3:43 AM UTCI'm not going to base any theories on the assumption that that video is genuine though, at least until it's been verified.
In a race to be first a lot of new agencies broadcast videos claiming to be of missile launches/impacts of last week's Ayn al-Assad strikes which turned out to have been from the Syrian war, Desert Storm or similar. Several Gulf news agencies were broadcasting they were 'certain' the plane had been shot down literally the moment it hit the ground. -
2020-01-11 at 3:44 AM UTC
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2020-01-11 at 4:02 AM UTCIran has admitted to shooting down the plane. They called it unintentional and human error.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/iran-admits-to-unintentionally-shooting-down-ukrainian-planeThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2020-01-11 at 4:26 AM UTC
Originally posted by Technologist Iran has admitted to shooting down the plane. They called it unintentional and human error.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/iran-admits-to-unintentionally-shooting-down-ukrainian-plane
the article didnt link to any source. -
2020-01-11 at 4:27 AM UTCLook it up, it’s all over the global news.
