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Iraq - Major Escalation Underway (January 2020)
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2020-01-06 at 3:44 AM UTCYou have no idea the size of this hornets nest.
You are going to be really sorry when this is over. And you are going to know how badly you lost. -
2020-01-06 at 3:47 AM UTCI made a career out of going to to toe with terrorists.
You want to cause me reputational and psychological harm.
How badly do you think this is going to end for you?
I am extremely high profile you are in extremely serious trouble. -
2020-01-06 at 3:47 AM UTC
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2020-01-06 at 3:51 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra I wouldn't have a problem with him being disagreeable if he could actually form a coherent thought instead of just continually posting 'ur wrong' and 'I am cIA' repeatedly
This is not the content of anything I have written.
You continue to attack my person.
I am an extremely high profile US government asset.
Your government is going to be in trouble if you are not dealt with extremely severely. -
2020-01-06 at 3:52 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50365235
I think it's wrong to look at this is economical - transactional terms though. Iran's been fostering this 'Axis of Resistance' for the last 40 years or so, in many cases offering the only lifeline available to people who don't belong to the 'comprador elite' the west has been throwing money at to maintain political control.
In terms of actual open war, yeah China will likely do nothing except try to preserve economic channels and Russia will only intervene covertly, ie. providing intelligence and weaponry and lines of communication with other groups looking to throw off US control. Syria and Yemen will have to act as strategic allies for what they're worth and Iraq will have too much chaos of its own to deal with
there wont be an open war, because US cant afford it either, it'd be just like iraq the sequel.
it'll just be 'bomb and run' on US's part and call to globalized ghard on the other. US bases in asia and s.e.a are pretty soft. -
2020-01-06 at 3:53 AM UTC
Originally posted by vindicktive vinny there wont be an open war, because US cant afford it either, it'd be just like iraq the sequel.
it'll just be 'bomb and run' on US's part and call to globalized ghard on the other. US bases in asia and s.e.a are pretty soft.
Iran is a LOT larger and more capable than Iraq ever was though. -
2020-01-06 at 3:54 AM UTC
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2020-01-06 at 3:55 AM UTCif I get droned it was too.dark.to.see
calling it nowThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2020-01-06 at 3:55 AM UTCI don't think you understand how serious this is.
You seriously cannot play here. -
2020-01-06 at 3:57 AM UTCYou're knowingly and willingly interfering with key US government infrastructure from Australia and you're trying to assert yourself in the face of it.
You are in serious major trouble. -
2020-01-06 at 3:57 AM UTCis this gonna be the new marines meme?
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2020-01-06 at 3:57 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Iran is a LOT larger and more capable than Iraq ever was though.
technologically and financially inferior.
they have no way of stopping americas bomb and run, the fact that they;re bigger than iraq means their defendsive equipments were spread thin, no effective ways to stop american drones. -
2020-01-06 at 3:58 AM UTCconsequences will never be the same
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2020-01-06 at 3:59 AM UTC
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2020-01-06 at 4:03 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50365235
I think it's wrong to look at this is economical - transactional terms though. Iran's been fostering this 'Axis of Resistance' for the last 40 years or so, in many cases offering the only lifeline available to people who don't belong to the 'comprador elite' the west has been throwing money at to maintain political control.
In terms of actual open war, yeah China will likely do nothing except try to preserve economic channels and Russia will only intervene covertly, ie. providing intelligence and weaponry and lines of communication with other groups looking to throw off US control. Syria and Yemen will have to act as strategic allies for what they're worth and Iraq will have too much chaos of its own to deal with
Discovering a new oil field doesn't mean anything in terms of Iran's short term goals or economic interests whatsoever, besides needing to build the sensitive infrastructure necessary to extract them. So Iran is annoying to the US by being the biggest country that puts overtly anti american propaganda in public spaces? That's annoying to the US but really means nothing. A war with Iran would be messy and over very quickly.
You basically said Iran will have no one to go to bat with them, at least not in any real meaningful (or even symbolic way that's worth the end of their governmental structure).
Iran is fucking hurting right now. Even the Iranian populace wants peace. Persians aren't like Pashtun's who will fight for dubious reasons. Iranians hate America because they have good reason to do so but they also aren't absolutely retarded enough to think starting a war with the US would work out in ANY WAY in their favor at this point. Iran is extremely weak right now and will continue to be for the near future. The yemen bombing campaign stretched resources and the US won't even let them get 5g networks.
They have absolutely no way to justify open war with the US besides vague ideology and you of all people should know that isn't enough to throw down the gauntlet knowing they're going to lose. -
2020-01-06 at 4:21 AM UTC
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2020-01-06 at 4:23 AM UTC
Originally posted by vindicktive vinny technologically and financially inferior.
they have no way of stopping americas bomb and run, the fact that they;re bigger than iraq means their defendsive equipments were spread thin, no effective ways to stop american drones.
Their missile tech and numbers are far superior. They have decent AA capabilities but not enough to stop a determined air campaign - attackers will take casualties though. That's without taking foreign militias like Hez into account.
What I mean is that the US will not be able to 'break' Iran with air power alone, and they're not going to win a ground war no matter how much the target's been 'softened up'.
Originally posted by Sudo They have absolutely no way to justify open war with the US besides vague ideology and you of all people should know that isn't enough to throw down the gauntlet knowing they're going to lose.
I think you've got a skewed idea of what constitutes a victory or loss here.
Absolutely true that the US has objective military superiority here, but how can they use that to create a political outcome positive to them? There's no scenario in which military force achieves lasting 'regime change' or submission. The only possible option for that is complete saturation bombing with nuclear weapons, but that literally nukes whatever fig leaf is left of the US acting in anything but total self-interest and effectively dismantles the concept of MAD. -
2020-01-06 at 4:23 AM UTC
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2020-01-06 at 4:39 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra I think you've got a skewed idea of what constitutes a victory or loss here.
Absolutely true that the US has objective military superiority here, but how can they use that to create a political outcome positive to them? There's no scenario in which military force achieves lasting 'regime change' or submission. The only possible option for that is complete saturation bombing with nuclear weapons, but that literally nukes whatever fig leaf is left of the US acting in anything but total self-interest and effectively dismantles the concept of MAD.
Ok, the US can win because they can make the Iranian political structures exist in name only when they destroy Tehran. Iranians will learn they shouldn't let their clerics whip them into a frenzy and make them dumb enough to take on a superpower from a position of objective weakness.
There aren't guerilla fighters or many tribesmen in Iran that are going to take up arms on their own and launch (unsuccessful) attacks on the US after the military is wiped out. Israel has been gathering intelligence for decades and knows things about Tehran they don't know they know. There will be no MAD, worse case for the US is a long, protracted, costly war right next to their other long, protracted, costly war that is wildly unpopular with the country. Iran isn't capable of doing anything meaningful to the US and is aware of this. Maybe they have secret nuke stashes and maybe the US has missile defense systems all around there, including likely still in Turkey.
I know you like to get doomy and gloomy but nothing is going to come of this anytime soon. Just a slight increase in the heat and more bully tactics at the hands of the states. Iran is WEAK and has WEAK allies and is of very little use to anybody. Iran is capable of great things and that's what scares the US, hence all the attempts to curb economic growth and sowing dissent among regional allies. -
2020-01-06 at 4:42 AM UTCI think you're criminally underestimating their resilience and peoples' support for the Islamic Revolution.
We'll see soon enough, I guess
