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Conflict Shitpile IV - Idlib Dawn Edition
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2019-06-20 at 9:31 AM UTCTrump is no longer just not in control of foreign policy, he appears to be completely 'out of the loop' leaving the literal lunatics Pompeo and Bolton without oversight or counterbalance. Their goal now appears to be to move so many troops into the region that it becomes a statistical certainty that someone will get hurt which will serve as a pretext to 'counter Iranian aggression'.
I cannot see a single possibility for de-escalation at this point - unless Trump stages his own Operation Hummingbird, which he won't. Make your preparations. -
2019-06-20 at 10:02 AM UTCPlease don’t say that Aldra. They’re saying that Iran shot down an American drone last night.
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2019-06-20 at 10:24 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra lol, I looked into the site and founders. It's like a better-funded Bellingcat run by someone who should know better
it was actually "Russian military police" which I was unaware had a presence in that area.
That site actually has a lot of good information sometimes, at least it did like 3 years ago, I'm not so sure now but although it has some neocon hawks working for it. A lot of other publications cite it. I like the maps although they did fuck some stuff up when the Ukraine conflict was in full swing
I think the US missed the boat on giving the Kurds some legitimacy which they could use as pretext for nation building and having a vassal in Northeast Syria/NW Iraq the defense of which They could use as a pretext for war. They missed this because they are stupid -
2019-06-20 at 10:40 AM UTC
Originally posted by Sudo I think the US missed the boat on giving the Kurds some legitimacy which they could use as pretext for nation building and having a vassal in Northeast Syria/NW Iraq the defense of which They could use as a pretext for war. They missed this because they are stupid
I don't think it was ever possible - things could've played out differently, but it seems to me a Kurdish state there would be unsustainable no matter the plan. I'd doubt it would've worked even if Assad fell and Syria disintegrated.
First, almost all of the SDF fighters are foreign veterans of the YPG/PKK, and they've generated a lot of resentment from the locals (Arabs and Kurds alike) through exploitation and forcing them to work for a war effort many of them don't even believe in. I doubt they would've been able to hold on to the territory they have for this long without the brutality, but the people will not tolerate it forever.
The SDF was initially created under the pretext of fighting ISIS (its actual purpose was to create a beachhead against the Syrian government), but since ISIS has been effectively crushed they've failed to take any steps to demilitarise or support the local population which just generates more animosity. Remember too that this is a (rebranded) Kurdish separatist army ostensibly trying to create a Kurdish state comprising many areas that aren't even majority-Kurd. -
2019-06-20 at 10:52 AM UTC
Originally posted by Sudo I think the US missed the boat on giving the Kurds some legitimacy which they could use as pretext for nation building and having a vassal in Northeast Syria/NW Iraq the defense of which They could use as a pretext for war. They missed this because they are stupid
That option is still on the table, depends on how deep their split with Turkey goes, since the coup attempt that relationship has been on shaky ground. -
2019-06-20 at 12:58 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra I don't think it was ever possible - things could've played out differently, but it seems to me a Kurdish state there would be unsustainable no matter the plan. I'd doubt it would've worked even if Assad fell and Syria disintegrated.
First, almost all of the SDF fighters are foreign veterans of the YPG/PKK, and they've generated a lot of resentment from the locals (Arabs and Kurds alike) through exploitation and forcing them to work for a war effort many of them don't even believe in. I doubt they would've been able to hold on to the territory they have for this long without the brutality, but the people will not tolerate it forever.
The SDF was initially created under the pretext of fighting ISIS (its actual purpose was to create a beachhead against the Syrian government), but since ISIS has been effectively crushed they've failed to take any steps to demilitarise or support the local population which just generates more animosity. Remember too that this is a (rebranded) Kurdish separatist army ostensibly trying to create a Kurdish state comprising many areas that aren't even majority-Kurd.
Obviously a legitimate internationally recognized Kurdish state isn't anywhere near feasible rn but granting them some legitimacy would allow any provocation to be a condition for intervention aka da poor yazidi chillins aka I like my kurds without mustard etc
The way America distanced themself from using them as allies (as ineffectual as they can be at times) makes it harder to go back to them. As it stands -
2019-06-20 at 1:03 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra I don't think it was ever possible - things could've played out differently, but it seems to me a Kurdish state there would be unsustainable no matter the plan. I'd doubt it would've worked even if Assad fell and Syria disintegrated.
First, almost all of the SDF fighters are foreign veterans of the YPG/PKK, and they've generated a lot of resentment from the locals (Arabs and Kurds alike) through exploitation and forcing them to work for a war effort many of them don't even believe in. I doubt they would've been able to hold on to the territory they have for this long without the brutality, but the people will not tolerate it forever.
The SDF was initially created under the pretext of fighting ISIS (its actual purpose was to create a beachhead against the Syrian government), but since ISIS has been effectively crushed they've failed to take any steps to demilitarise or support the local population which just generates more animosity. Remember too that this is a (rebranded) Kurdish separatist army ostensibly trying to create a Kurdish state comprising many areas that aren't even majority-Kurd.
holy fuck I just typed a big thing out then hot jedied by my phone
basically a Kurdish state won't happen anytime soon but the way the US moved away from treating them as regional allies. enemies at the border don't really matter to domestic Americans. Now they can't use Kurdish plight as a pretext for intervention because everyone knows they don't give a shit
I like my kurds without mustard da poor yazidi chillins etc they basically white! -
2019-06-20 at 1:04 PM UTCDON'T stand in front of a mirror at 3AM and say
ASSAD MUST GO
WARNING TURBO SCARYThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2019-06-20 at 1:05 PM UTCIsn't the Kurdish state a de facto reality on the ground?
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2019-06-20 at 1:07 PM UTCIn Iraqi Kurdistan yeah, not in Syria. It's more of a huge military outpost than anything else
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2019-06-20 at 3:57 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Trump is no longer just not in control of foreign policy, he appears to be completely 'out of the loop' leaving the literal lunatics Pompeo and Bolton without oversight or counterbalance. Their goal now appears to be to move so many troops into the region that it becomes a statistical certainty that someone will get hurt which will serve as a pretext to 'counter Iranian aggression'.
I cannot see a single possibility for de-escalation at this point - unless Trump stages his own Operation Hummingbird, which he won't. Make your preparations.
or maybe war is good for reelection. -
2019-06-20 at 5:22 PM UTC
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2019-06-20 at 7:19 PM UTCIt's going to be like this for a while. Trump has actually been pretty much shrugging off the oil tanker attack, it's his co-horts like Pompeo that are getting Cheney fever.
It's going to be like this for a while. Iran lobs a missile or two at somebody and smirks diffidently and denies all wrongdoing; at which the U.S. "Increases surveillence gathering and presence in the region". -
2019-07-20 at 11:54 PM UTC
video of iranian tanker seizure. -
2019-07-21 at 12:05 AM UTC
Originally posted by DietPiano It's going to be like this for a while. Trump has actually been pretty much shrugging off the oil tanker attack, it's his co-horts like Pompeo that are getting Cheney fever.
What attack? It was boarded by Iran off the Iranian coast and taken into custody. No one has been hurt, no one has been attacked.It's going to be like this for a while. Iran lobs a missile or two at somebody and smirks diffidently and denies all wrongdoing; at which the U.S. "Increases surveillence gathering and presence in the region".
Iran hasn't lobbed a missile at anyone, apart from to defend its own territory, for example from US drones.
OTOH the US Navy once shot down a packed Iranian airliner on a scheduled flight, and then awarded the dipshit captain who did so all sorts of honours and accolades. -
2019-07-21 at 12:08 AM UTC
Originally posted by Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country What attack? It was boarded by Iran off the Iranian coast and taken into custody. No one has been hurt, no one has been attacked.
Iran hasn't lobbed a missile at anyone, apart from to defend its own territory, for example from US drones.
OTOH the US Navy once shot down a packed Iranian airliner on a scheduled flight, and then awarded the dipshit captain who did so all sorts of honours and accolades.
You know that post was from last month, right? -
2019-07-21 at 12:10 AM UTC
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2019-07-21 at 2:14 PM UTC
