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Conflict Shitpile IV - Idlib Dawn Edition
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2019-06-17 at 7:23 PM UTC
Originally posted by vindicktive vinny but israel is in the same direction as iran relative to the ships.
Yeah, drones can approach from any angle, I was mostly just making the point that mines, torpedoes and standard anti-ship missiles could be ruled out. As for blaming israel, they're the only ones who have something to gain from the attack and also have the iniative to carry it out - in theory it could've been one of the Gulf states but MbS would not risk angering the US, nor would he risk closing the Strait (if a single ship sunk instead of just being damaged, insurers would pull out and nobody would risk sending an uninsured tanker through there). If Iran were actually insane and self-destructive enough to do it, both those ships and more would've been sunk to create underwater hazards and coastal batteries would target anyone trying to clear them. This attack benefits them in no way whatsoever. -
2019-06-17 at 7:25 PM UTCI guess we can't rule out a third party either, likely operating on purely economic interests like driving up insurance costs or forcing buyers to consider getting oil from a different source...
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2019-06-17 at 7:26 PM UTCNot pretending to be an expert on gulf politics, but aren't UAE and Qatar more or less free agents in the region? UAE stands for Emirates as well - they nearly fell apart during the last recession when Dubai needed a big bailout (yes Dubai ran out of money, how quickly we forget). The list of suspects is long and diverse.
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2019-06-17 at 7:36 PM UTCGeopolitically they typically fall in line behind Saudi Arabia. Same applies, they don't have a history of successful operations like israel and considering the bulk of their income comes from the Strait, it'd be an enormous gamble for them with possibly dire consequences.
You're right about the list of suspects though; it's not like a drone or even rocket with a smallish explosive charge is hard to get. It may not have even been a state actor -
2019-06-17 at 8 PM UTCThe Israelis/jedis (cos they are one and the same, lets face it) are bizarre.
For instance look at the kidnapping of Adolph Eichmann from Argentina, when every jedi Mossad approached provided material assistance (treason) in abducting an innocent old man.
jedis regularly killed Iranian nuclear scientists as well - in Iran. From a practical point of view every jedi is Mossad.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2019-06-17 at 10:39 PM UTCDo you really think it can be worth the reward for US military to know that it wasn't Iranians and to fabricate some kind of crappy video and lie and say that it's Iran? (Hypothetical sit. I don't think this is what happened, but not impossible)
1970? Absolutely possible. 2019? Things don't stay secret any more. Everyone has an instant widewide voice and things are found out. Is the potential payoff so great that it can outweigh the risk for USA? -
2019-06-18 at 12:06 AM UTCIf the attack was carried out by israel, the 'evidence' was in all likelihood provided by israel.
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2019-06-18 at 12:07 AM UTC
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2019-06-18 at 12:49 AM UTC
assad curse strikes againThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2019-06-18 at 12:51 AM UTClol fucking dies
they usually just get fired -
2019-06-18 at 12:58 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra https://www.rt.com/news/462086-us-iran-israel-tactical-assault/
oh boy.
Let's hope that the EU does not fall in line with Washington when the cruise missiles start flying. I don't think you could even legally justify action against Iran under the NATO framework, at least in the way the situation has unfolded as of present. -
2019-06-18 at 5:24 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Yeah, drones can approach from any angle, I was mostly just making the point that mines, torpedoes and standard anti-ship missiles could be ruled out. As for blaming israel, they're the only ones who have something to gain from the attack and also have the iniative to carry it out - in theory it could've been one of the Gulf states but MbS would not risk angering the US, nor would he risk closing the Strait (if a single ship sunk instead of just being damaged, insurers would pull out and nobody would risk sending an uninsured tanker through there). If Iran were actually insane and self-destructive enough to do it, both those ships and more would've been sunk to create underwater hazards and coastal batteries would target anyone trying to clear them. This attack benefits them in no way whatsoever.
idk, but saudi seemed to have a lot to gain from the escalation. if the conflict gets hot suddenly the US would have no choice but sell lots of arms to the saudis, the limited conflict in yemen would become internationalized into proxy wars between US, iran and maybe russia, and lessening burden of its weight on the saudis.
and oil price, specifically demand for americans own oil will jump sharply, -
2019-06-18 at 5:59 AM UTCYeah, maybe that was poor phrasing on my part, I meant israel being the only one with something to gain AS WELL AS the ability to competently carry it out.
You're right, KSA does stand to gain a lot by drawing others in to solve their Yemen problem and fight their primary regional adversary for them, but MbS is not retarded (though using embassy grounds to chop up a journalist makes me seriously pause before saying that) and knows that:
A) A miscalculation would mean the literal end of the monarchy and
2) The Saudi military is having a hard enough time against Yemen, the likelihood of them pulling off a covert operation against Iran in the one place EVERYONE is looking* is... not optimal.
Tl;dr: I don't think the rewards outweigh the risks for them.
*It seems more and more strange to me that the only video or radar data that's been made public is the grainy video the US navy released. I'm aware they've released more photos since, but the only relevant ones are those taken during the US inspection, long after the attacks took place. -
2019-06-18 at 6 AM UTCSpeaking of, I might start a thread to analyze the photos when I get home if anyone's interestedThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2019-06-18 at 6:41 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Yeah, maybe that was poor phrasing on my part, I meant israel being the only one with something to gain AS WELL AS the ability to competently carry it out.
You're right, KSA does stand to gain a lot by drawing others in to solve their Yemen problem and fight their primary regional adversary for them, but MbS is not retarded (though using embassy grounds to chop up a journalist makes me seriously pause before saying that) and knows that:
A) A miscalculation would mean the literal end of the monarchy and
simply wont happen because of their legitimacy as the custodian of the two holy mosques. OIC will ensure their existence by any means necessary. haj is srs bns.2) The Saudi military is having a hard enough time against Yemen, the likelihood of them pulling off a covert operation against Iran in the one place EVERYONE is looking* is… not optimal.
Tl;dr: I don't think the rewards outweigh the risks for them.
*It seems more and more strange to me that the only video or radar data that's been made public is the grainy video the US navy released. I'm aware they've released more photos since, but the only relevant ones are those taken during the US inspection, long after the attacks took place.
dont forget who's saudi's newest bff.
israel. -
2019-06-19 at 12:06 AM UTC
Originally posted by Sophie Let's hope that the EU does not fall in line with Washington when the cruise missiles start flying. I don't think you could even legally justify action against Iran under the NATO framework, at least in the way the situation has unfolded as of present.
lol cucked euros -
2019-06-19 at 3:50 AM UTCI want the US the run guns to the Houthis in order for:
1. So they stop hating the US and become dependent on them, worshiping posters of G.W.B.,
2. To spread the Yemeni empire to new lands as God intended
3. Paybek 4 nine 11
edge over
But in all seriousness, as much as I would love to visit Yemen sometime in my life, I find it extremely unlikely that the literally "Death to America" Houthis are going to have a change of heart on that issue or be eradicated from the region anytime soon. And for that reason, I guess I am rooting for the Little Yemen that Could to open its fly a little and do some manspreading all over SA.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2019-06-20 at 4:18 AM UTCAldra did you hear anything about Russian military police preventing a big unit of Iranian Rev guards from entering quneitra by the Golan Heights? This was like a month ago but they were apparently dressed like SAA troops.
http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20Syria%20Direct%20-%20Syria%20SITREP%20Map%2020190514%20-%20Web_.jpg
Is this Russia sticking up for the Juden and not allowing Iran to get to the Golan Heights? Did Iran know about the trump themed settlement and planned to fuck it up but Russia made a side deal with Trump on a back channel and nixed it? That honestly seems the most likely scenario to me -
2019-06-20 at 7:32 AM UTC
Originally posted by Sudo Aldra did you hear anything about Russian military police preventing a big unit of Iranian Rev guards from entering quneitra by the Golan Heights? This was like a month ago but they were apparently dressed like SAA troops.
http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20Syria%20Direct%20-%20Syria%20SITREP%20Map%2020190514%20-%20Web_.jpg
Is this Russia sticking up for the Juden and not allowing Iran to get to the Golan Heights? Did Iran know about the trump themed settlement and planned to fuck it up but Russia made a side deal with Trump on a back channel and nixed it? That honestly seems the most likely scenario to me
I'd seriously question the legitimacy of that source. The basis for that claim is simply 'rebel sources' - the IRGC only has a small advisory presence in Syria (regardless of israel's constant complaining), largely to co-ordinate standoff attacks that the SAA has little experience with (ie. drones, SS missiles, airstrikes etc), and absolutely does not have authority over Syrian military and intelligence units like the last point claims. -
2019-06-20 at 7:42 AM UTClol, I looked into the site and founders. It's like a better-funded Bellingcat run by someone who should know better
