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Poll: Answer.
- A+B
- B
Newcomb's Paradox Thread
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2021-11-12 at 2:30 PM UTCAlright.
A superintelligence from another galaxy, whom we shall call Omega, comes to Earth and sets about playing a strange little game. In this game, Omega selects a human being, sets down two boxes in front of them, and flies away.
Box A is transparent and contains a thousand dollars.
Box B is opaque, and contains either a million dollars, or nothing.
You can take both boxes, or take only box B.
And the twist is that Omega has put a million dollars in box B if Omega has predicted that you will take only box B.
Omega has been correct on each of 100 observed occasions so far - everyone who took both boxes has found box B empty and received only a thousand dollars; everyone who took only box B has found B containing a million dollars. (We assume that box A vanishes in a puff of smoke if you take only box B; no one else can take box A afterward.)
Before you make your choice, Omega has flown off and moved on to its next game. Box B is already empty or already full.
Omega drops two boxes on the ground in front of you and flies off.
Do you take A+B, or only B?The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2021-11-12 at 2:35 PM UTCdamn this reminds me of the ASVAB hold my beer while I wax FILAsophical ill be thinking on this and post an update when i decide how 2 proceed
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2021-11-12 at 3:01 PM UTCIf you don't take A+B you are a fucking idiotThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2021-11-12 at 3:14 PM UTC
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2021-11-12 at 3:28 PM UTCI've been thinking about it 🤔 and it seems it I take box B then box A is gone FOREVER, I deprive anyone els from being able to choose it so so I like the idea of that ( especially knowing what I know now, that doing so will make anyone who plays after me a Millionair e. But it's a little bit unclear how much of this info we would get upfront honestly
Cause this could be one of those things where you're like kr0zes dad saying "Doug... You're trying to outsmart the game and pick an option that doesn't exist, just play the game by the rules.. "The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2021-11-12 at 3:36 PM UTC
Originally posted by I Live In Your Crawlspace Secretly4 I've been thinking about it 🤔 and it seems it I take box B then box A is gone FOREVER, I deprive anyone els from being able to choose it so so I like the idea of that ( especially knowing what I know now, that doing so will make anyone who plays after me a Millionair e. But it's a little bit unclear how much of this info we would get upfront honestly
Cause this could be one of those things where you're like kr0zes dad saying "Doug… You're trying to outsmart the game and pick an option that doesn't exist, just play the game by the rules.. "
You know that Box A has $1000 in it, and you know that if Omega predicted you'd take only Box B it'll have $1,000,000 in it. You also know that Omega is really fucking good at predicting what you'll pick. -
2021-11-12 at 4:13 PM UTCThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2021-11-12 at 4:16 PM UTCI shit in both boxes and leaveThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2021-11-12 at 4:24 PM UTCLol
It’s A+B dickheads cause then you get both
And this question is designed to make you go skitzo so don’t read into it -
2021-11-12 at 4:39 PM UTC
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2021-11-12 at 4:48 PM UTCOption C then, which is box C cause you gotta think outside the box
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2021-11-12 at 4:51 PM UTCOh fuck off
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2021-11-12 at 5:19 PM UTC
Originally posted by Grylls Lol
It’s A+B dickheads cause then you get both
And this question is designed to make you go skitzo so don’t read into it
>he thinks it's A+B
In all seriousness though, you're in good company. Decision theorists (the brain geniuses who devote their lives to pondering this inane shit) overwhelmingly choose to take both boxes. It's obviously the wrong answer, but I can't fault anyone for choosing it. -
2021-11-12 at 5:52 PM UTC>Before you make your choice, Omega has flown off and moved on to its next game. Box B is already empty or already full.
Even if you believe in hard determinism and that Omega truly is prescient the entire question is void. You choose what you choose, better to exist in the universe where you choose just B I guess but you don't, ironically, have any choice in that.
You really have to believe in retro-causality to think B only is optimal. In which case you're fucked. Living in back-to-the-future world is worse than living in cthulhu world. Spoopy eldritch terror is nothing in the face a past that shifts like sand.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2021-11-12 at 6:20 PM UTC
Originally posted by Lanny >Before you make your choice, Omega has flown off and moved on to its next game. Box B is already empty or already full.
Even if you believe in hard determinism and that Omega truly is prescient the entire question is void. You choose what you choose, better to exist in the universe where you choose just B I guess but you don't, ironically, have any choice in that.
You really have to believe in retro-causality to think B only is optimal. In which case you're fucked. Living in back-to-the-future world is worse than living in cthulhu world. Spoopy eldritch terror is nothing in the face a past that shifts like sand.
You don't need to believe in determinism or true prescience, you just need to accept that the probability that Omega has guessed wrong is extremely low. Would you take a 100% chance at $1000, a 99.99999% chance at $1000000, or a 0.000001% chance at $1001000? Simple as.
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2021-11-12 at 6:39 PM UTCMe rn: If picking A+B was so smart then whycome you ain't rich like me?
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2021-11-12 at 6:49 PM UTC
Originally posted by Meikai Alright.
Do you take A+B, or only B?
One would not be aware of the fact "Omega has been correct on each of 100 observed occasions so far - everyone who took both boxes has found box B empty "
So that is moot...I'd therefore take both.
If I was aware of it, I wouldn't take any boxes, I'd have a third party take the boxes and then deliver them to me...thereby thwarting Omega's "prediction". -
2021-11-12 at 6:57 PM UTC
Originally posted by Jiggaboo_Johnson One would not be aware of the fact "Omega has been correct on each of 100 observed occasions so far - everyone who took both boxes has found box B empty "
So that is moot…I'd therefore take both.
If I was aware of it, I wouldn't take any boxes, I'd have a third party take the boxes and then deliver them to me…thereby thwarting Omega's "prediction".
You are aware of it, so congratulations! You've got $1000 whole dollars. "I'd have someone else take both boxes" is still choosing both boxes, but even if you want to argue that you chose someone at random and had them choose in your stead, Omega factored this possibility into his predictions about what you'd do. Moot indeed. -
2021-11-12 at 6:59 PM UTCI’d take B. Also lol. Fuck you Lucy.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2021-11-12 at 6:59 PM UTC
Originally posted by Meikai You are aware of it, so congratulations! You've got $1000 whole dollars.
Source? I see no mention of it in the text."I'd have someone else take both boxes" is still choosing both boxes, but even if you want to argue that you chose someone at random and had them choose in your stead, Omega factored this possibility into his predictions about what you'd do. Moot indeed.
Source? I see no mention of that in the text.
You are moving the goal posts...
Also if Omega dropped the boxes and then went on to the next project...how was he observing the results?
This is simply a poorly written quandary with little thought...let alone intelligence behind it.
