This is nowhere near finished and in a messy draft state, but I'd be interested to hear feedback from anyone familiar with what's going on.
Ukraine's been in a state of civil war for the better part of three years. In order to facilitate NATO's creep towards Russian borders, the US and EU have long funded and organised unrest within the state, attempting to sow hostility toward the notoriously corrupt pro-Russian government. Ukraine, being part of the former Soviet bloc, has long had strong economic ties with Russia - mostly free-trade agreements for several industries and discounts on vital natural gas granted for their status as a transit country and Russia's use of land, most notably the large naval base in Crimea.
This came to a grinding halt in 2014 - the country was offered an 'Association Agreement' to the EU, a set of regulations, controls and guidelines they were to adopt if they wanted to integrate with the EU - assuming it was enacted, they would likely initially gain access to the EU free-trade zone, then perhaps the Schengen zone leading to full integration.
The President of the time, Viktor Yanukovych, meant to decline the agreement - it made no guarantees as to accession into the EU and many of the reforms required to comply would come into direct conflict with agreements already made with Russia, by far the country's primary trading partner. This became a point of contention within Ukraine - much of the Eastern part of the country was employed in mining and manufacturing operations that were supported almost exclusively by the aforementioned Russian trade agreements, whereas the Western part of the country (where Kiev and most of the larger cities sit) was cultivating a services-based economy and saw greater potential in the EU market.
The US and EU, through groups such as Radio Free Europe and other BBG agencies had long been sowing discontent (given the level of corruption in the government, it's impossible to know how much of the subsequent unrest could be attributed to their interference) with the government, as well as using other known and unknown covert means. As detailed in Victoria 'Fuck the EU' Nuland's famous phonecall to Geoff Pyatt, the US meant to overthrow President Yanukovych and put a pro-western politician, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, in his place. The titular line was her response to the revalation that while the EU wanted to push the Association Agreement through, they had serious reservations with overthrowing a (somewhat) legitimate government.
These conflicts of interest began to erupt as protests which came to be known as the Euromaidan - named for Maidan Square, where the largest of these protests (which progressed to riots, then full-blown civil war) initially took place. They began as civilised as any protests do in relatively poor slavic countries - violent, with protestors and riot police (Berkut) trading blows, but few serious injuries or deaths.
Once riots reach a certain size, however, they become susceptible to standard US 'colour revolution' or 'regime change' tactics. These started with NGOs (operating as an arm of the US state department) organising and funding protests (as seen in the so-called Arab Spring protests) and were further escalated by various covert operations - a notable example being the group of snipers that appeared to be dressed in Berkut uniforms who opened fire on police and rioters alike.
The protests culminated in the ousting of Yanukovych, who fled to Russia, and a loose coalition of Yatsenyuk and several oligarchs taking control of the government. More importantly, the whole issue cut several sharp divides in Ukrainian society. A huge rift opened in the east/west split mentioned earlier, this time not just on idealogical lines, but also on national identity. Ukraine had long been a Soviet nation, and it's border with Russia had changed many times in the past. As a result, there has always been a large Russian minority largely concentrated near the eastern border - it's no surprise that those cities resisted the new government, and largely thanks to combat veterans and Russian arms, the area southeast of Dnipro broke away and entirely rejected them, calling their opting instead to be absorbed into the Russian Federation.
If the east was largely pro-Russian, the west came to be characterised by patriotism and extreme nationalism. Far-right groups such as Right-Sector and 'Trident' came to the fore, many bringing pro-NAZI ideologies with them, and were embraced by the new government as a sort of paramilitary police force given the army's lukewarm reception and the widespread distrust of police.
Among the oligarchs that took control of the state, Petro Poroshenko (known as the Chocolate King, as his fortune came from monopoly over chocolate production in the country) took the lead and declared himself President. Ihor Kolomoyskyi and Yulia Tymoshenko consolidated much political power unto themselves, but kept a much lower profile. Upon taking power, Poroshenko declared the self-declared 'Donetsk Republic' terrorists under the instructions and protection of Russia and signed orders to commence an 'Anti-Terrorism' operation against it with the goal of bringing it under control. This was tricky for a number of reasons - primarily because the military was in a state of disarray and for the most part, was unwilling or unable to deploy. He genuinely believed that Russia was poised to invade and take the Eastern regions, and was desparate to beat them to it - as a result, he needed troops. The answer came in the form of what were called 'Volunteer Battalions' - young people who were out of work, and for whatever reason were deemed unfit for military service. These volunteers initially came from the ranks of far-right groups such as the aforementioned Right Sector, and were used to form the notorious Azov and Cyclone battalions among others. Another large source of volunteers that slowly became more available were Chechen militants - looking to fight Russia in any way they could, their stated goal was to win the 'war' in the east, then funnel arms and soldiers home to fight the Russians there.
The first 'Volunteer Battalions' were actually raised by Kolomoyskyi - in the initial panic of Russia invading, he armed local men and paid them to guard his factories. When it became apparent that Russia was not going to invade, he simply stopped paying them, handing them over to state control and setting up the template for future use.
Russia's response to the new Ukraine government was prompt - taking power on the back of foreign-orchestrated violence, they were chastised as being illegitimate, but due to international pressure, specifically western support for the coup-imposed government, their reaction had to be restrained. In signing the Accession Agreement, all Russian trade agreements were voided - the most important of which being massive discounts on the supply of gas, the price of which almost doubled overnight. As expected, Ukraine protested and continued to refuse to pay even after being offered a lower (though nowhere near as low as the original) rate. At one point gas supplies to Ukraine were suspended, but being a transit country on the way to the EU, they were able to skim gas destined for France and England, leaving Russia with little further recourse.
Possibly the most important piece of Russian infrastructure on Ukrainian land was the naval base at Crimea. Given that it allows Russia to project naval power into the Black Sea, it's closure was ostensibly one of the core goals of the overthrow of the government in the first place - Poroshenko had meant to push the Russians out and reclaim the base for Ukraine. For it's own defence, however, the base was something Russia could not lose. In what was the most perfectly orchestrated joint military-political operation in recent memory, Russia reclaimed Crimea without a single shot fired or life lost.
Western media went into a frenzy, claiming that Russia had 'annexed' part of Ukraine, with many calling for war or military action and many more clamouring for slightly less extreme punishments. While it's true that Ukraine's sovereignty was violated, it's important to consider the region's history as well as the current events that led to it's return to Russian control.
Crimea, from the 1600s up until the height of the Soviet Union, was a part of Russia. In 1954, Nikita Khrushchev essentially gave stewardship of the region to Ukraine, much to the dismay of the locals - every few years for decades there was a local referendum on accession or transfer back to the Russian Federation, and every recorded instance shows that at least 80% favour such. The region has always felt more Russian than Ukrainian, largely because the only real infrastructure and source of work is the Russian naval base there.
Back to the present, Russia claimed authority to retake Crimea by running a referendum - again, scoring over 90% support and giving them overwhelming moral justification to act. It was a combined military/political venture; prior to running the referendum various Spetsnaz groups locked down the polling and counting stations to prevent interference or intimidation, and afterwards disarmed and vetted all soldiers and police in the region - all without any reported violence.
The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
