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World to hit temperature tipping point 10 years faster than forecast
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2022-03-03 at 11:48 PM UTC
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2022-03-04 at 1 PM UTC
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2022-03-04 at 1:07 PM UTC"How much warming is caused by humans?
In its 2013 fifth assessment report, the IPCC stated in its summary for policymakers that it is “extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature” from 1951 to 2010 was caused by human activity. By “extremely likely”, it meant that there was between a 95% and 100% probability that more than half of modern warming was due to humans.
This somewhat convoluted statement has been often misinterpreted as implying that the human responsibility for modern warming lies somewhere between 50% and 100%. In fact, as NASA’s Dr Gavin Schmidt has pointed out, the IPCC’s implied best guess was that humans were responsible for around 110% of observed warming (ranging from 72% to 146%), with natural factors in isolation leading to a slight cooling over the past 50 years.
Similarly, the recent US fourth national climate assessment found that between 93% to 123% of observed 1951-2010 warming was due to human activities.
These conclusions have led to some confusion as to how more than 100% of observed warming could be attributable to human activity. A human contribution of greater than 100% is possible because natural climate change associated with volcanoes and solar activity would most likely have resulted in a slight cooling over the past 50 years, offsetting some of the warming associated with human activities."
Best guess...fucking lol...well I'm convinced! ...even though they admitted to miscalculating the "tipping point" multiple times already -
2022-03-04 at 1:24 PM UTC
Originally posted by Jiggaboo_Johnson "How much warming is caused by humans?
In its 2013 fifth assessment report, the IPCC stated in its summary for policymakers that it is “extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature” from 1951 to 2010 was caused by human activity. By “extremely likely”, it meant that there was between a 95% and 100% probability that more than half of modern warming was due to humans.
This somewhat convoluted statement has been often misinterpreted as implying that the human responsibility for modern warming lies somewhere between 50% and 100%. In fact, as NASA’s Dr Gavin Schmidt has pointed out, the IPCC’s implied best guess was that humans were responsible for around 110% of observed warming (ranging from 72% to 146%), with natural factors in isolation leading to a slight cooling over the past 50 years.
Similarly, the recent US fourth national climate assessment found that between 93% to 123% of observed 1951-2010 warming was due to human activities.
These conclusions have led to some confusion as to how more than 100% of observed warming could be attributable to human activity. A human contribution of greater than 100% is possible because natural climate change associated with volcanoes and solar activity would most likely have resulted in a slight cooling over the past 50 years, offsetting some of the warming associated with human activities."
Best guess…fucking lol…well I'm convinced! …even though they admitted to miscalculating the "tipping point" multiple times already
Looks like you didn't even read the few paragraphs of the report I told you to read, but instead googled some random article that must have taken you more time and energy to read than if you just read the few paragraphs of the report already available to you in this very thread.
The report is from 2021, btw, the article you copy pasted is from 2017.
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2022-03-04 at 1:26 PM UTC
Originally posted by Obbe Looks like you didn't even read the few paragraphs of the report I told you to read, but instead googled some random article that must have taken you more time and energy to read than if you just read the few paragraphs of the report already available to you in this very thread .
The Irony
"In its 2013 fifth assessment report, the IPCC stated"
Yes, very random
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2022-03-04 at 1:27 PM UTC
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2022-03-04 at 1:29 PM UTC
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2022-03-04 at 1:30 PM UTCThis thread is such a beautiful exchange of ideas it's like those Greek philosophers in thT place. Fuck it's on the tip of my tongue. Parteon? Acropolis? Fucksake I gotta stop forgetting things
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2022-03-04 at 1:31 PM UTC
Originally posted by Obbe How is it ironic? I gave you the report and told you where to find the information.
You googled some old news.
"old news"...
You don't even get it do you...if the claims made are facts...the information wouldn't change.
"best guess"
"We dun fucked up and the tipping point is sooner than we said"
Fucking lol. -
2022-03-04 at 1:32 PM UTC
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2022-03-04 at 1:34 PM UTCThe big problem I have is that people assume anything is going to be done. We're getting past 100 million barrels a day of just oil consumption - all times high.
The world is fucked, and post-Christian climate-guilt and Greta worship only succeeds in being annoying.
OTOH my oil company shares are doing great, and they're still great value, as they price oil at $60 a barrel, instead of the $120 that is more realistic.
If we're going to be destroying the world anyway, may as well make some money at it.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2022-03-04 at 1:35 PM UTCAgain back in the 80s we were told we'd be out of oil by 2000-2010.
A new ice age was a real possibility
half the world population would have aids by 2000
New coke would replace classic coke. -
2022-03-04 at 1:37 PM UTC
Originally posted by Jiggaboo_Johnson Facts don't change girlfriend…if they do, it wasn't a fact in the first place…which means their "new" fact is about as trustworthy
"Best guesses" are not facts be they best guesses in 2013 or 2022.
On a very practical level, “best guess” in science is sometime what a non-scientist will call “the truth”.
Example - there is no “proof” that the sun will rise tomorrow from the east (assuming were at the surface of the earth at rest and far from the poles). In fact, some question the stability of the solar system and there is a non-zero yet very small chance that earth’s orbit will be perturbed so much that earth will be kicked out of the solar system or collide with other planets at some point. Yet, from experience, the fact that I saw the sun regularly rising from the east every day of my life so far (at least the days I bothered to check), seem to suggest that the best guess would be that it will also happen tomorrow. -
2022-03-04 at 1:38 PM UTC
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2022-03-04 at 1:39 PM UTC
Originally posted by Donald Trump The big problem I have is that people assume anything is going to be done. We're getting past 100 million barrels a day of just oil consumption - all times high.
The world is fucked, and post-Christian climate-guilt and Greta worship only succeeds in being annoying.
OTOH my oil company shares are doing great, and they're still great value, as they price oil at $60 a barrel, instead of the $120 that is more realistic.
If we're going to be destroying the world anyway, may as well make some money at it.
In my online class yesterday the prof asked who could be considered a modern day Prophet, students said literally the weatherman and random people on social media. I said Elon musk and the prof said Greta thunberg. I always imagined a Prophet would be less angry
I should have objected to the query as a Muslim and gotten hungry to take religious sensitivity training -
2022-03-04 at 1:40 PM UTC
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2022-03-04 at 1:46 PM UTC
Originally posted by Sudo In my online class yesterday the prof asked who could be considered a modern day Prophet, students said literally the weatherman and random people on social media. I said Elon musk and the prof said Greta thunberg. I always imagined a Prophet would be less angry
Need to define a prophet. Is it just someone who predicts things, or someone who is a leader?
Some prophets predict something, then work to make it a reality. Others predict something, then sit back and let it become reality. Some prophets are fake, and predict stuff that won't happen. And I think some prophets don't really predict anything, they just cause a fuss, that would be Greta. -
2022-03-04 at 1:46 PM UTC
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2022-03-04 at 1:46 PM UTC
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2022-03-04 at 1:47 PM UTC
