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Conflict Shitpile - TURBO EDITION

  1. #1
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    OK, this time around I'll keep things short because there's too much going on and things are moving too fast. Conflicts in the 'middle east' have likely gained too much inertia to be stopped, and old 'cold wars' and minor skirmishes are very close to becoming kinetic.

    The short version is that the war between KSA and Yemen has reached a new level, and that certain parties (mostly KSA and israel) see this as an opportunity to expand and redirect the conflict to Iran and its allies.

    First, let's break down the new rules of KSA vs Yemen:

    1. Yemen (ie. 'The Houthis', Ansar Allah in media) has been working with Hezbullah on missile and drone development, tactics, strategy etc.. We can see that their tactics and operations have become very similar. Contrary to the KSA/western media line that the weapons used 'are too advanced to have come from Yemen', Yemen has been building these weapons indigenously for the last 1-2 years and have been using them to great effect against anti-air defences and oil infrastructure over the last 6 months or so. They've actually held conferences showing off their missiles and drones; I might add links later.

    2. The most recent strike that cut Saudi oil output in half (which has since been repaired) was largely a demonstration that continued attacks on Yemen would fast become too expensive to maintain. According to several sources familiar with oil extraction/refining, the targets hit were largely just storage units that were large but not mechanically complicated and not difficult to replace (aside from logistics). If they had intended to completely rubble KSA's oil production capability there were many other high-tech targets available that would require custom-made parts and would completely halt production at the facility for a matter of months.

    3. Even though capacity has been restored, mass media appears to be completely disregarding the incident as a product of the KSA-Yemen war and is instead reporting it as an attack meant to destabilise the oil economy. According to their logic, the only country who would want to do that is Iran.

    4. Neither the US, nor KSA nor israel wants to accept that the attack was planned and launched by Yemenis. On the part of the US, KSA has been spending over $60 billion a year to arm and protect them against such attacks and the fact that $800,000 (a single missile! launcher and radar set sold separately) PAC-3 PATRIOT missiles could not stop drones made in one of the poorest countries in the world threatens the arms trade the entire US economy is built on. On the part of KSA, they refuse to admit it but they must know that the war on Yemen is over and unwinnable - their only hope to put their puppet-president back on the throne is to draw in foreign powers, and the most effective way to do that is to invoke the regional bogeyman. israel, as we all know, has had a hate boner for Iran since its inception and jumps at any excuse to have foreign 'allies' attack it.

    So that's where we are with Yemen - everyone blaming the attack on Iran and claiming they want to destroy the world oil economy.

    Keep in mind that if there is to be a war launched against Iran, the first attacks are very unlikely to be against Iran itself - israel fears Hezbullah most, largely due to the spanking they took in the 2006 war. If the empire intends to attack Iran, the first targets will be Lebanon and Syria, and everyone involved appears to be fully aware of this.

    Lebanon, for its part, has backed Nasrallah (Hezbullah's leader) in closing airspace to israeli aircraft. Up until recently israeli drones and jets have been able to enter Lebanese airspace with impunity, but following recent drone attacks Hezbullah has been given the order to attack any israeli craft in the skies over Lebanon. They've already claimed they've downed several drones.

    In Syria, rumours abound that Russia has closed airspace to israel, in one incident intercepting an F-35 with their own SU-35s. This hasn't been officially verified by the israeli or Russian government, but media on all sides has reported on it citing 'anonymous sources' so it's safe to assume Russia has taken a more active stance in preventing israeli airstrikes. This makes sense now, as it's the perfect time for them to stir up more trouble and potentially incite US attacks on Syria, which would throw open the gates.
  2. #2
    Sudo African Astronaut [my hereto riemannian peach]
    Twas the night before the jedi council sacrificed a young aryan boy and their soothsayer interpreted the bloodletting as they pick their new ruler...
  3. #3
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    netenyahu's going to jail lol
  4. #4
    Sudo African Astronaut [my hereto riemannian peach]
    maybe he'll go to this one with Michael Cohen

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-cohen-prison/trumps-former-lawyer-heads-to-u-s-prison-that-offers-matzo-ball-soup-and-full-time-rabbi-idUSKCN1SB08G
  5. #5
    Originally posted by aldra 2. The most recent strike that cut Saudi oil output in half (which has since been repaired) was largely a demonstration that continued attacks on Yemen would fast become too expensive to maintain. According to several sources familiar with oil extraction/refining, the targets hit were largely just storage units that were large but not mechanically complicated and not difficult to replace (aside from logistics). If they had intended to completely rubble KSA's oil production capability there were many other high-tech targets available that would require custom-made parts and would completely halt production at the facility for a matter of months.

    i dont understand their motive for doing this, why give them a timely, friendly warning when they'rr already in the middle ofna way ?

    warning shots are deterents for escalations. they're far beyond that now.
  6. #6
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    Originally posted by vindicktive vinny i dont understand their motive for doing this, why give them a timely, friendly warning when they'rr already in the middle ofna way ?

    warning shots are deterents for escalations. they're far beyond that now.

    Completely wrecking Saudi Arabia's oil output capacity would crush the petrodollar. They're not idiots (well, maybe they are, but they're in contact with the IRGC who are certainly not idiots) and don't want to give the US an excuse to come in and tear the region apart (more). I'll bet they absolutely want to, but to properly mess with the petrol economy is to invite outside interference
  7. #7
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    I mean, it's likely to end up that way regardless but that response would be a lot more certain if KSA was suddenly unable to produce or refine any oil and repairs would take 6 months or so
  8. #8
    Originally posted by aldra Completely wrecking Saudi Arabia's oil output capacity would crush the petrodollar. They're not idiots (well, maybe they are, but they're in contact with the IRGC who are certainly not idiots) and don't want to give the US an excuse to come in and tear the region apart (more). I'll bet they absolutely want to, but to properly mess with the petrol economy is to invite outside interference

    but the US, at the nudging of jéwsrael are going to come in anyway.

    maybe that was boltons plan all along. i can even imagine them preparing fancy presentation at the UN detailing how the drones/cruise missiles flew from 'mobile launchers' in iran into KSA.
  9. #9
    Originally posted by aldra I mean, it's likely to end up that way regardless but that response would be a lot more certain if KSA was suddenly unable to produce or refine any oil and repairs would take 6 months or so

    this will be good for iran and the US.
  10. #10
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    Iran can't sell oil on the open market due to sanctions and the US would lose control of the petrodollar. True prices would skyrocket enough to make shale (fracking) oil marketable but given how much of a ponzi scheme that industry is, I don't think it's possible to sustain output that's in any way comparable to traditional drilling.

    Assuming KSA lost their market share and no war ensued Russia would be the big winner I think. Iran and Venezuela would potentially do very well too if the sanctions were lifted or buyers like the EU became desperate enough to ignore them.
  11. #11
    Originally posted by aldra Iran can't sell oil on the open market due to sanctions and the US would lose control of the petrodollar. True prices would skyrocket enough to make shale (fracking) oil marketable but given how much of a ponzi scheme that industry is, I don't think it's possible to sustain output that's in any way comparable to traditional drilling.

    Assuming KSA lost their market share and no war ensued Russia would be the big winner I think. Iran and Venezuela would potentially do very well too if the sanctions were lifted or buyers like the EU became desperate enough to ignore them.

    it would be good for iran because europe, who needs oil would be pushed to choose between sticking to the whims and fancies of the US and their sanction or sign a new one with iran independently.

    and as i understands it, even before this attack on KSA the US is already the biggest oil producer in the world and has been so for the past 10 years, its just that they consume as much as they produce, if not more. the peak oil predicted in the past was inaccurate due to the limits of human understanding and technology of the time.

    i firmly believe we are far from the height of peak oil.
  12. #12
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition



    interesting how precise those hits are though
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  13. #13
    Originally posted by aldra


    interesting how precise those hits are though

    "if you think its too good to be true, it probably is ..."
  14. #14
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    Ironically, one of the reasons why the Patriot systems failed to engage the drones is because the vast majority of them are stationed and pointed to the North East toward Iran. The minority are configured to track missiles coming from the South because up until recently they didn't see Yemen as a serious threat outside of their own borders.
  15. #15
    meanwhile in another place halfway across the world, american drone attack killed 30+ mud farmers and other zero value targets.
  16. #16
    aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
    lol, I read an analysis recently that found in attempts to kill 42 'terrorists', US drone operators managed to kill roughly 2/3 of them... along with 1200+ civilians
  17. #17
    Originally posted by aldra lol, I read an analysis recently that found in attempts to kill 42 'terrorists', US drone operators managed to kill roughly 2/3 of them… along with 1200+ civilians

    they shpuld be sent to iran or yemen to be trained how to operate drones.
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  18. #18
    DietPiano Naturally Camouflaged
    They've been crying we're at peak oil every year for 40 years now

    They don't know shit/wanna sell eco friendly produce
  19. #19
    Sudo African Astronaut [my hereto riemannian peach]
    God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the jedis, and victory for Islam
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  20. #20
    Originally posted by aldra netenyahu's going to jail lol

    no hes not.

    lololollollolol.

    underestimating jëws can be fatal.
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