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Predict the Future
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2018-11-19 at 8:32 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra no I meant if he fucks up hard enough and loses foreign investment his country goes back to being a bunch of sandy bandits, if it doesn't get bulldozed entirely
they're doing just fine before any investment trickled in from the west they'll be doing just fine after 'investments' from the west pull out.
thanks to their mecca they'll still be the nexus of the islamic world and for most of the people there, thats enough. they'en living that way for the past 1400+ years. -
2018-11-19 at 9:26 AM UTClol, they were literally dumping their rubbish in the street for goats to eat because taking care of it was 'below their station' prior to US investment - I don't think the majority want to go back to that, especially given the mass number of slaves they keep in the country that they won't be able to control anymore.
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2018-11-19 at 10:21 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra lol, they were literally dumping their rubbish in the street for goats to eat because taking care of it was 'below their station' prior to US investment - I don't think the majority want to go back to that, especially given the mass number of slaves they keep in the country that they won't be able to control anymore.
srsly you realy believe people are going to stop buying oil from them because of a quartered journalist. -
2018-11-19 at 10:49 AM UTCno
OK I'll explain this again and try to be clearer because both of you seem to be missing the central point I'm trying to make.
US Congress has the power to force Trump to abandon the massive US-KSA arms contracts. They came close to doing so with the mounting war crimes in Yemen*; they now also have further support via the killing of Khoshoggi.
Neither Trump nor MbS wants the war or the arms contracts to end, so they must find a way to placate congress. The war in Yemen is non-negotiable**, so something must be done to 'resolve' Khoshoggi's murder. Neither cares, really, they just need to close the issue so that congress no longer has the required numbers to break the arms deals. Again, it would've been easy to string up a mid-level commander for 'acting on his own authority', but now literally everyone believes MbS himself is responsible so the punishment must be applied to him if it is to appear sincere.
Worst-case scenario - KSA keep trying to sweep the murder under the rug, enough 'people' in Congress see it as KSA killing a prolific US propaganda asset with impunity and move to break the arms contracts. US economy dips, Trump's popularity dives and his critics open up a new front claiming that he's shielding MbS from crimes against 'journalists'. MbS loses air superiority and not only rapidly loses ground in Yemen but it starts raining Tochkas (or the Iranian mod) on Riyadh. His brothers, cousins etc. interpret the broken contracts as him losing the US' favour and the state breaks into factions (including the military) and dissolves in civil war.
*A measure was passed that in order for the contracts to continue, US analysts must regularly certify that KSA is doing all it can to minimise civilian impact. This is why Pompeo amusingly stated that 'KSA's admission that they indeed did bomb a schoolbus and killed 40 children is proof that they're working with the UN to minimise civilian casualties.
**KSA is well past peak oil production and the core reason for the war in Yemen is that KSA made one of their puppets president who in turn gave them license to sack Yemen's oil and gas reserves. The 'Houthi Uprising' is more like a general revolt against foreign ownership of the state, and given how much they've committed to the war effort I expect they're going to have major economic problems if (when) they fail.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2018-11-19 at 11:16 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra no
OK I'll explain this again and try to be clearer because both of you seem to be missing the central point I'm trying to make.
US Congress has the power to force Trump to abandon the massive US-KSA arms contracts. They came close to doing so with the mounting war crimes in Yemen*; they now also have further support via the killing of Khoshoggi.
Neither Trump nor MbS wants the war or the arms contracts to end, so they must find a way to placate congress. The war in Yemen is non-negotiable**, so something must be done to 'resolve' Khoshoggi's murder. Neither cares, really, they just need to close the issue so that congress no longer has the required numbers to break the arms deals. Again, it would've been easy to string up a mid-level commander for 'acting on his own authority', but now literally everyone believes MbS himself is responsible so the punishment must be applied to him if it is to appear sincere.
Worst-case scenario - KSA keep trying to sweep the murder under the rug, enough 'people' in Congress see it as KSA killing a prolific US propaganda asset with impunity and move to break the arms contracts. US economy dips, Trump's popularity dives and his critics open up a new front claiming that he's shielding MbS from crimes against 'journalists'. MbS loses air superiority and not only rapidly loses ground in Yemen but it starts raining Tochkas (or the Iranian mod) on Riyadh. His brothers, cousins etc. interpret the broken contracts as him losing the US' favour and the state breaks into factions (including the military) and dissolves in civil war.
*A measure was passed that in order for the contracts to continue, US analysts must regularly certify that KSA is doing all it can to minimise civilian impact. This is why Pompeo amusingly stated that 'KSA's admission that they indeed did bomb a schoolbus and killed 40 children is proof that they're working with the UN to minimise civilian casualties.
**KSA is well past peak oil production and the core reason for the war in Yemen is that KSA made one of their puppets president who in turn gave them license to sack Yemen's oil and gas reserves. The 'Houthi Uprising' is more like a general revolt against foreign ownership of the state, and given how much they've committed to the war effort I expect they're going to have major economic problems if (when) they fail.
correct me if im wrong but isnt the US heavily invested in KSA and vice versa ?
its in nobodys interest if KSA fails and descent into chaos, and i dont think US, congress and senate, want that. -
2018-11-19 at 2:32 PM UTC8.35am 11/19/18.
I predict I go and give the underlings a pep talk. -
2018-11-19 at 2:45 PM UTCI predict I'mma pass out any second now from all the drank, g, and benzos, as well as despite all the meth I did today.
Eyelids dropping.
Hands relaxing.
I am kinda getting bored of stims though, TBH.
I predict that, by December, I will have cut virtually all recreational drugs out of my life. -
2018-11-19 at 3:07 PM UTCPep talk complete, I'm a seer.
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2018-11-19 at 4:56 PM UTC
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2018-11-19 at 6:59 PM UTC
Originally posted by vindicktive vinny correct me if im wrong but isnt the US heavily invested in KSA and vice versa ?
its in nobodys interest if KSA fails and descent into chaos, and i dont think US, congress and senate, want that.
Congress aren't known for foresight or prudence, and for the most part just do what their constituents (more accurately, wealthy lobby groups) tell them. Many also believe the propaganda they spread about US dominance, specifically that they are fully insulated from the consequences of their actions and that permanent dominance is all but assured.
The response to the whole Khoshoggi thing has been emotional and impulsive anyway, for the most part.
Germany just voided all KSA arms contracts over it. Of course the military-industrial lobby will see it as a void to fill and push to increase sales accordingly, but the media lobby will use it to justify further pressure ('we can't be the only ones not doing the right thing'). -
2018-11-19 at 7:03 PM UTCI predict hardcore bruxism and lack of sleep in my future, starting around 8pm EST today.
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2018-11-19 at 7:05 PM UTCwear a mouthguard
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2018-11-19 at 7:09 PM UTCI predict that no matter how many times she gets the leaf blowet out that she will never get rid of all the leaves, especially while the wind is blowing.
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2018-11-19 at 7:12 PM UTC
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2018-11-19 at 7:26 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Congress aren't known for foresight or prudence, and for the most part just do what their constituents (more accurately, wealthy lobby groups) tell them. Many also believe the propaganda they spread about US dominance, specifically that they are fully insulated from the consequences of their actions and that permanent dominance is all but assured.
whens the last time you saw or heard lobbyists and their group lobbied the congress to the detriment of their own financial security and well being ?
these lobbyists arent stupid and they'll want whats best for their clients and themselves and for the most part, that will depends largely on the well being of the american economy.The response to the whole Khoshoggi thing has been emotional and impulsive anyway, for the most part.
the way i see it is that they're all cold, calculated response, far from being emotional, the response was political, done for maximum effect, against a sitting president.Germany just voided all KSA arms contracts over it. Of course the military-industrial lobby will see it as a void to fill and push to increase sales accordingly, but the media lobby will use it to justify further pressure ('we can't be the only ones not doing the right thing').
germans are faggots. they wont even mine and use their abundant coals for faggy environmemtal and carbonal reasons, and their love for migrants. germany cant be look upon for rational policies.
the media lobby, the weapon industry lobby, the all work for the same entity. there might be some theaterics about some 'doing the right thing' but in the end everything will go on as usual. -
2018-11-19 at 7:30 PM UTCThe Canadian geese must be arriving in Rio with their hummingbird ridealongs.
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2018-11-19 at 8:54 PM UTC
Originally posted by vindicktive vinny whens the last time you saw or heard lobbyists and their group lobbied the congress to the detriment of their own financial security and well being ?
these lobbyists arent stupid and they'll want whats best for their clients and themselves and for the most part, that will depends largely on the well being of the american economy.
Like I said, congress almost achieved enough of a consensus to halt the arms transfers even before the Khoshoggi partitioning. Different lobby groups have different objectives... If they all worked toward a single goal or ideal the government wouldn't be the schizophrenic mess it is today. -
2018-11-19 at 9:01 PM UTCSnowed and got real cold here fast and a month and a half early, which caught the geese totally by surprise. Now they don't know whether to stay or go.
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2018-11-20 at 7:44 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra Like I said, congress almost achieved enough of a consensus to halt the arms transfers even before the Khoshoggi partitioning. Different lobby groups have different objectives… If they all worked toward a single goal or ideal the government wouldn't be the schizophrenic mess it is today.
i know, the thing is im not sure if that was a show or for real. -
2018-11-20 at 5:36 PM UTCReading this thread is scary....💀
