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Israel wins Gaza war
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2025-01-16 at 3:09 AM UTCPeace deal today. We win.
The terrorist will get a ceasefire from January 19th 2025. All hostages will be released. Security guarantees from the authorities in Gaza allowing us to withdraw in a phased arrangement, with limited reconstruction.
I couldn't be happier. It's been a long struggle. We deserve to be ve -
2025-01-16 at 3:15 AM UTCThis doesn't mean peace. The ceasefire will not last. Both nation's current geostrategic standings are unstable and each nation's individual standing can not be improved via peace.
"The agreement, which requires ratification by a vote of Israel’s cabinet"
Good luck. And if you are thinking the UN will help keep the peace, they won't. The UN isn't effective at peacekeeping and never will be.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2025-01-16 at 3:22 AM UTCThey don't even recognize Israel as a real state, how can this be anything significant?
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2025-01-16 at 4:43 AM UTCHow did they win if they haven't obliterated Khamas like they said they would?
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2025-01-16 at 6:49 AM UTCI'm not sure what to make of this at the moment, none of the actual agreement has been made public, the only conditions we're aware of have been gleaned indirectly from statements given by the parties.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/15/what-do-we-know-about-the-israel-gaza-ceasefire-dealThe initial phase will last six weeks, and will involve a limited prisoner exchange, the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops in Gaza and a surge of aid into the enclave.
Thirty-three Israeli captives, including women, children and civilians over the age of 50 – taken during the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023 – will be released. In exchange, Israel will release a larger number of Palestinian prisoners during this phase, including prisoners serving life sentences. Among the Palestinians being released are around 1000 who were detained after October 7.
In tandem with the exchange of captives, Israel will withdraw its forces from Gaza’s population centres to areas no more than 700 metres inside Gaza’s border with Israel. However, that may exclude the Netzarim Corridor, the militarised belt bisecting the Strip and controlling movement along it – the withdrawal from Netzarim is expected instead to take place in stages.
Israel will allow civilians to return to their homes in the enclave’s besieged north, where aid agencies warn famine may have taken hold, and allow a surge of aid into the enclave – up to 600 trucks per day.
Israel will also allow wounded Palestinians to leave the Gaza Strip for treatment, and open the Rafah crossing with Egypt seven days after the start of the implementation of the first phase.
Israeli forces will reduce their presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, the border area between Egypt and Gaza, and then withdraw completely no later than the 50th day after the deal comes into effect.
So the general gist of it is a prisoner swap followed by partial withdrawal of IDF units from central/north Gaza.
In terms of reception, the israeli public sees it as a failure to 'finish the war' and the Arabs see it as a victory in 'driving out the invaders', but the reality is likely the opposite, especially considering the recent Lebanon 'ceasefire' (https://niggasin.space/thread/93083), which israel constantly violates with impunity.
Over the last two years a ceasefire could not be reached with Gaza for several reasons, primarily that both sides wanted fundamentally different things they were unwilling to negotiate on - israel wanted a temporary pause in fighting to retrieve their hostages and remove Hamas' leverage so that the war could be continued afterwards, whereas Hamas wanted a guaranteed path to long-term peace and sovereignty. As a result of this, ceasefire negotiations were never serious, they were games of PR brinkmanship - israel would propose a temporary ceasefire, Hamas would add conditions to it and 'agree', israel would look at the amended agreement and reject it, then Hamas would broadcast that israel was rejecting its own ceasefire. This happened repeatedly from both sides.
This agreement in particular (keep in mind we do not have the actual document) appears to have no hard conditions on israeli withdrawal or longer-term peace negotiations, with the primary condition being exchange of prisoners. After the first exchange Hamas has refused this because even if israel agrees to release 100x the number of detainees that Hamas does, they simply re-arrest them (and many more) after the exchange is complete - Hamas has no capability to do the same, so it permanently damages their negotiating position with no real benefit.
It's also worth noting that the guarantors of the agreement (US, Egypt and Oman), like in the case of the Lebanon 'ceasefire', are openly supportive of israel's position.
TL;DR: No hard data, but it appears that the ceasefire is just another attempt to remove Hamas' leverage with no solid path to peace beyond israel continuing its retard rampage at a later date. There's nothing but 'verbal guarantees' from states that have no vested interest in Palestine that israel is going to use this as anything more than a chance to regroup and continue their assault on Gaza. -
2025-01-16 at 7:12 AM UTC
Originally posted by ner vegas I'm not sure what to make of this at the moment, none of the actual agreement has been made public, the only conditions we're aware of have been gleaned indirectly from statements given by the parties.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/15/what-do-we-know-about-the-israel-gaza-ceasefire-deal
So the general gist of it is a prisoner swap followed by partial withdrawal of IDF units from central/north Gaza.
In terms of reception, the israeli public sees it as a failure to 'finish the war' and the Arabs see it as a victory in 'driving out the invaders', but the reality is likely the opposite, especially considering the recent Lebanon 'ceasefire' (https://niggasin.space/thread/93083), which israel constantly violates with impunity.
Over the last two years a ceasefire could not be reached with Gaza for several reasons, primarily that both sides wanted fundamentally different things they were unwilling to negotiate on - israel wanted a temporary pause in fighting to retrieve their hostages and remove Hamas' leverage so that the war could be continued afterwards, whereas Hamas wanted a guaranteed path to long-term peace and sovereignty. As a result of this, ceasefire negotiations were never serious, they were games of PR brinkmanship - israel would propose a temporary ceasefire, Hamas would add conditions to it and 'agree', israel would look at the amended agreement and reject it, then Hamas would broadcast that israel was rejecting its own ceasefire. This happened repeatedly from both sides.
This agreement in particular (keep in mind we do not have the actual document) appears to have no hard conditions on israeli withdrawal or longer-term peace negotiations, with the primary condition being exchange of prisoners. After the first exchange Hamas has refused this because even if israel agrees to release 100x the number of detainees that Hamas does, they simply re-arrest them (and many more) after the exchange is complete - Hamas has no capability to do the same, so it permanently damages their negotiating position with no real benefit.
It's also worth noting that the guarantors of the agreement (US, Egypt and Oman), like in the case of the Lebanon 'ceasefire', are openly supportive of israel's position.
TL;DR: No hard data, but it appears that the ceasefire is just another attempt to remove Hamas' leverage with no solid path to peace beyond israel continuing its retard rampage at a later date. There's nothing but 'verbal guarantees' from states that have no vested interest in Palestine that israel is going to use this as anything more than a chance to regroup and continue their assault on Gaza.
Question, why are you putting so much thought into this? None of this affects you. -
2025-01-16 at 7:12 AM UTCThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2025-01-16 at 7:22 AM UTCI was really getting into the Pallywood videos.
Sucssks -
2025-01-16 at 8:38 AM UTC*according to some government officials that spoke on condition of anonymity,The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2025-01-16 at 8:50 AM UTCgood job israel!
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2025-01-16 at 8:55 AM UTCWithdrawal, or permanent station of soldiers? Muh expropriation of land thus further diluting the Palestinian populace with more jedi.
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2025-01-16 at 9:22 AM UTCThose celebrating look pretty healthy considering they've been starving for 15 months
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2025-01-16 at 12:49 PM UTClol this "win" is like edward norton was "winning" in the showerroom in AHX.
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2025-01-16 at 1:52 PM UTCThe whole thing has already come unraveled. Almost as Biden was trying to take credit for it...
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2025-01-17 at 4:19 AM UTCI think we should have held out for a better deal.
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2025-01-17 at 11:54 AM UTC
Originally posted by Cosmopolitan Peace deal today. We win.
The terrorist will get a ceasefire from January 19th 2025. All hostages will be released. Security guarantees from the authorities in Gaza allowing us to withdraw in a phased arrangement, with limited reconstruction.
I couldn't be happier. It's been a long struggle. We deserve to be ve
You're a liberal who's also a member of the J*wish master race? Your posts make more sense now. -
2025-01-17 at 11:59 AM UTC
Originally posted by Cosmopolitan I think we should have held out for a better deal.
Netanyahu will probably get a rimjob from Trump out of it. But there are also some sweeteners as far as spyware. Like I think law pigs here can officially use Pegasus or something, and the master race can break the ceasefire at their leisure once they've re-armed and continue your genocide.
I think Hamas is pretty cuck'd now. Like Iran. Only Yemen remains defiant. -
2025-01-17 at 12:18 PM UTC
Originally posted by Cowboy2013 Netanyahu will probably get a rimjob from Trump out of it. But there are also some sweeteners as far as spyware. Like I think law pigs here can officially use Pegasus or something, and the master race can break the ceasefire at their leisure once they've re-armed and continue your genocide.
I think Hamas is pretty cuck'd now. Like Iran. Only Yemen remains defiant.
Iran and Hez are still active, Syria imploding really threw a wrench into their logistics but nobody really knows what their plans are now. Still a lot of questions around the Lebanon ceasefire.
I'm starting to get the distinct impression that 'the powers that be' are going to use Trump to throw Netenyahu under the bus, blame him for the war and change tact with a new government. -
2025-01-17 at 12:29 PM UTC
Originally posted by ner vegas Iran and Hez are still active, Syria imploding really threw a wrench into their logistics but nobody really knows what their plans are now. Still a lot of questions around the Lebanon ceasefire.
I'm starting to get the distinct impression that 'the powers that be' are going to use Trump to throw Netenyahu under the bus, blame him for the war and change tact with a new government.
I think Raisi is assassinated, and I think they have one they like in Iran. He was too busy doing CNN interviews to retaliate against Israel and I think that's something that contributed to Syria. People say he doesn't control anything but Khamenei seems to have fallen in line. I think it's a mistake for Russia to put much into their relationship too unless they have something up their sleeve. -
2025-01-17 at 12:51 PM UTC
Originally posted by Cowboy2013 I think Raisi is assassinated, and I think they have one they like in Iran. He was too busy doing CNN interviews to retaliate against Israel and I think that's something that contributed to Syria. People say he doesn't control anything but Khamenei seems to have fallen in line. I think it's a mistake for Russia to put much into their relationship too unless they have something up their sleeve.
there's nothing to suggest Raisi was assassinated except for it being convenient. overloading a shitty helicopter in extremely bad weather, basically.
Pezeshkian is a spastic (basically the 'conservatives' split their vote between two candidates and they allow diaspora to vote, so the 'left wing pro west' guy got in) but my understanding is that his hands are currently being kept off the military and general foreign policy - he delayed the 'True Promise' missile strikes but wasn't able to stop them.
