The first fire of the ORESHNIK missile complex was on the 21/11, one week ago, and more details of the system itself and the results of its maiden voyage to the YUZHMASH plant in Dnipro are slowly becoming more apparent.
Western media, and the US White House spokesmonkey specifically have been dismissive of the strike, in most cases stating or implying that the system fired decoys as a test and a threat and suggesting that it's not fundamentally different from any other IRBM/strategic missile. The results are beginning to suggest otherwise, but before that let's look at the system itself.
Hypersonics: BackgroundFirst: current generation Russian hypersonic ballistic missiles such as the KINZHAL, ISKANDER and ZIRCON (as well as their Iranian analogues) are only hypersonic in the boost phase. It's a common misconception that they fly from Mach 5+ from launch to impact, but in reality the density of air is higher lower to the ground, and the intense friction would destroy the materials used. The reason they're so difficult to intercept is because they fly at Mach 5+ on approach, which, through friction, causes white-hot plasma to form on the surface of the missile. The plasma absorbs radio waves which makes the missile invisible to radar until it's directly above the target, at which point it changes direction erratically and launches flares and decoys making it very difficult for any last-line missile defence (such as anti-air artillery or CIWS) to engage it.
To missile defence it teleports directly above the target then spazzes out like a wheel firework as it comes down, giving no forewarning to prepare defenses. In Ukraine it's been observed that Russia has actually replaced the decoy submunitions with additional ceramic satellite antennae in their KINZHAL wreckage, implying that they're more concerned with ECM affecting their accuracy than actually being engaged.
The videos above are especially interesting because you can see the plasma encasing the missiles and literally burning through cloud cover. This is the first time I've seen a video of a missile behaving this way - for reference, these videos are from the recent Iranian missile strike on israel (the first is standard ballistic missiles, the second is a hypersonic):
The implication being that if they're covered in plasma all the way to impact, they are landing at hypersonic speeds (hitting the ground at 3.4km/s). This is an entirely new paradigm; Russian hypersonic weapons technology relies heavily on new, high impulse fuels and composite materials able to withstand the head and kinetic stress of hypersonic flight. It seems that they've now been able to manufacture materials that are able to sustain hypersonic (in this case: likely mach 10) flight at 1 atmosphere.
A recent statement from the head of the head of the Kurchatov Institute lends credence to this - he states that they have materials that can withstand 2000 degrees (celsius) in production, and are working on composites that can withstand up to 3000.
Technical SpecificationsOutside of hypersonic characteristics, the ORESHNIK is a standard MIRV IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile with multiple independent sub-missiles). It's ground launched, carries 6 (hypersonic) sub-missiles, and is (supposedly) based on the RS-26 RUBEZH platform. There are still a lot of unknowns, but it is implied that the missile carrier flies at mach 10 as well as the MIRV sub-missiles. It has a reported range of around 6000km which matches with the RUBEZH's reported specifications. The hypersonic characteristics make it extremely difficult (if not impossible using current technology) to detect and intercept, but also the potential for extreme ground penetration that would previously only be possible with superheavy 'bunker buster' type aerial bombs.
YUZHMASH StrikeAs mentioned in the preamble, most initial media reporting indicated that the strike only employed 'dummy' warheads as a show of strength, but this appears not to be the case. Looking closely at the videos at the top of the thread, the missiles seem to simply disappear into the ground rather than starting fires or causing even small explosions.
The site targeted is not just Dnipro proper, but the massive YUZHMASH military production facility there. YUZHMASH is specifically relevant because NATO recently agreed to build it up as a missile production/assembly plant for the long-range missiles they'd been supplying the AFU, such as the ATACMS, STORM SHADOWs (lol) and their European derivatives like the SCALP and TAURUS. It's a massive facility that has its own bus services and spans several city blocks, and the majority of its sensitive production facilities are 4+ storeys underground.
(Andrei Martyanov talking briefly about it) (Russian-language interview with the compound's former director describing its scale)There is an SBU information blockade surrounding the site. They've previously aggressively targeted bloggers and people posting media of AFU missile defence and the results of Russian strikes, very often imprisoning them indefinitely on terrorism charges or giving them the maximum sentence of 8 years - it's why there's so little footage of the results of Russian strikes over the last year or so. Local reports are that given the nature of this strike, enforcement is even more aggressive than usual, so for the most part all we have to go off are various anonymous reports from locals and rescue workers at the YUZHMASH site:
https://cont.ws/@krestianin/2926853(YANDEX TRANSLATE) We are well aware that the degree of reliability of this information is not absolute, but here is the invoice that is "from there" today: the blow fell on the territory between workshops No. 7 and 8, in the area of turning and blacksmithing industries. All ground-level buildings and structures on this territory have been reduced to rubble, in some places-to small concrete rubble. There are no large craters, there are a dozen holes in the ground with a diameter of about two meters. Eyewitnesses describe the scene as creepy, apocalyptic. Security around the perimeter and on the territory withdraws all means of photo and video recording, even pens and notebooks are taken away. People tell us that "officials" who speak English, Polish, and French constantly arrive at the plant's territory in tightly tinted minibuses. They say that unknown ammunition hit just those underground production facilities that Vladimir Zelensky boasted about, telling about the imminent appearance of some "formidable missile weapons"in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From the fragmentary conversations of rescuers, it seems that up to the 4th floor there is a zone of continuous destruction, below which rescuers have not yet been able to descend.
there is a lot more being repeated on Telegram, but very little media so far aside from a few unverifiable photos of damaged apartments supposedly on the edge of the YUZHMASH facility.
TO BE CONTINUEDRussia has promised to respond to recent ATACMS strikes in Kursk, and has released a NOTAM closing the airspace above the ORESHNIK launch facility in Astrakhan until the 30/11 indicating another launch may be imminent.
