Potential Geopolitical Implications of Venezuela Invading Guyanna

1. 2024-01-08 at 6:20 AM UTC

   #1
   The Self Taught Man Black Hole
   Context:
   
   https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-guyana-essequibo-territory-dispute-maduro-referendum-90a4f0f962a83620903987a68a7d39b0
   
   https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-guyana-maduro-referendum-essequibo-c031c2e6264392183503d988d6346e8e
   
   Possible Implications of Venezuela Invading Guyana:
   
   1: The French will be required to stretch themselves out even thinner, as their colony in south america would be threatened by the conflict.
   
   2: Venezuela is a member of OPEC, if OPEC members start producing less oil in retaliation to foreign intervention in this conflict, it could mean disaster for the European nations that import oil from OPEC countries now that Russia is no longer an option.
   
   3: The US would be stretched more thinly as well, as the US supports Guyana in the face of Venezuelan claims and would supposedly intervene in the event of a military conflict.
   
   4: Venezuela may take out even more loans from china (China has supplied them with some 80 Billion $ in loans I think) in order to buff it's military. After all, the Russo-Ukraine war has demonstrated that a weak country can defend itself well if given sufficient material and logistical aid.
2. 2024-01-08 at 6:23 AM UTC

   #2
   

   the man who put it in my hood Black Hole
   all of them
   
   check out el petro
3. 2024-01-08 at 6:45 AM UTC

   #3
   

   aldra JIDF Controlled Opposition
   I thought they at least temporarily resolved that, haven't really been following
   
   I doubt the French will get involved. it's a century-long border dispute that was somewhat dormant until Guyana invited Exxon to drill for oil in the contested region. as a result it's a direct interest of the US, so if anyone gets involved it'll be them (first and foremost).
   
   Venezuela isn't such a big player in oil output because they only have the capability to extract crude; when their petroleum industry developed it was done in such a way that they have no processing capability of their own, they had to ship crude to the US to be processed into petroleum products.
   
   lately they've been trading it with Iran, but only in relatively small quantities because it needs to be done in secret to avoid US sanctions and their tankers getting stolen.
   
   Saudi Arabia's signed on with BRICS now though, so yeah it's entirely possible OPEC in general will be used as a 'soft' weapon against the west.
4. 2024-01-08 at 7:44 AM UTC

   #4
   

   the man who put it in my hood Black Hole
   this is THE BIGGEST story this year/last year. The fact the USA isn't doing jack shit and the entire world can't do anything because Venezuela has so much soft power it would make your head spin is shocking, nobody sees it, nobody cares, LITERAL FUCKING COMMUNISTS.
   
   I guess this is the China strategy they invaded and fucked with all kinds of their neighbors and got away with it
5. 2024-01-08 at 8:05 AM UTC

   #5
   

   vindicktive vinny Black Hole

   Originally posted by Kingoffrogs Context:
   
   https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-guyana-essequibo-territory-dispute-maduro-referendum-90a4f0f962a83620903987a68a7d39b0
   
   https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-guyana-maduro-referendum-essequibo-c031c2e6264392183503d988d6346e8e
   
   Possible Implications of Venezuela Invading Guyana:
   
   1: The French will be required to stretch themselves out even thinner, as their colony in south america would be threatened by the conflict.
   
   2: Venezuela is a member of OPEC, if OPEC members start producing less oil in retaliation to foreign intervention in this conflict, it could mean disaster for the European nations that import oil from OPEC countries now that Russia is no longer an option.
   
   3: The US would be stretched more thinly as well, as the US supports Guyana in the face of Venezuelan claims and would supposedly intervene in the event of a military conflict.
   
   4: Venezuela may take out even more loans from china (China has supplied them with some 80 Billion $ in loans I think) in order to buff it's military. After all, the Russo-Ukraine war has demonstrated that a weak country can defend itself well if given sufficient material and logistical aid.

   
   wrong on every count.
   
   the tides have turned.
   
   now the US needs venezuella crude more than the venezuelans need "american" refined petroleum products.
   
   OPEC is no longer relevant as a global player in 2024 and will be even less interested in gettimg involved globally.
   
   exxon might lobby the US to get involved and the US might recite some diplomatic cliches like freedom and democracy matters and rule based system/order is srs bns but nothing actionable will transpire, due to point 1.
   
   and lastly, how dare you comparing guyanians to the ukrianians. post pictures of ukrainians and guyanians side by side and tell me they are made out of the same stuffs.