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Kazakhstan: Euromaidan Sequel CANCELLED
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2022-01-12 at 8:33 AM UTCIf you want more in-depth analysis, I recommend the following:
https://www.unz.com/pescobar/steppe-on-fire-kazakhstans-color-revolution/ - Pepe Escobar on the causes and progression
http://thesaker.is/who-lost-kazakhstan-and-to-whom/ - Saker on the aftermath and geopolitical implications
Most of what I'm writing here is a summary of the above and other sources. I'll try and keep it short so no TLDR.
Timeline
1. The initial cause of the unrest was that the government had been subsidising fuel costs and discontinued the subsidies because they were becoming too expensive. After the first waves of riots, the government caved in and reinstated (actually increased) the subsidies, but the riots continued with new demands to ban certain politicians and ex-politicians from participating in the government, to subsidise food and medical prices and other typically-socialist policies. Many of the demands were fundamentally impossible, indicating that the major groups demanding them were interested in revolution or disposal of the government rather than reform.
2. Armed groups activated across the country. It's currently popular to compare the coup/'colour revolution' attempt to what happened in the Ukraine in 2014, but Khazakhstan experienced it on a much larger scale. Whereas in the Ukraine violence was mostly contained in Kiev and the greater East (though there were other significant incidents such as the Odessa Trade House Fire), Khazakhstan saw armed uprisings across the country, with most estimates sitting at around 20,000 armed rebels.
3. It quickly became obvious that Kazakh security forces were going to have serious trouble - they had to differentiate between rioters and armed units to avoid a political disaster, they were stretched thin having to deal with disruptions across the country, and dropping morale would lead to desertion, like what happened in Syria and Libya when it began to feel hopeless. The President called for assistance from the Russian-led CSTO (similar to a regional NATO for the smaller Eurasian states), and overnight, two Russian brigades and several smaller special forces units from Belarus and Armenia were deployed.
4. It's unclear how many rebels have been killed but most estimates are in the thousands. Not only have the foreign forces aided the Kazakh security forces in crushing them, they've effectively hardened the security forces' resolve and destroyed the morale of the rebels, given that they now know they do not have the firepower to win and their sponsors will not aid them militarily.
5. There are massive purges going on in the Kazakh government, with the (current) highest profile arrest being the chief of the Kazakh National Security Committee, Karim Massimov. He's been charged with treason and has been described as a mastermind behind the event, and has both a personal and business history with the Biden family.
Aftermath
As per Saker's analysis, the sheer scale of the operation (arming and organising 20,000 fighters) would've required significant time and resources, indicating that this has been in the works for a while. Concurrently, preparing two brigades and units from multiple countries for overnight deployment would also take (at least) weeks, which indicates that the Russians (and given that they warned Erdogan of his impending assassination, likely the Kazakh government) knew it was coming too - they allowed it to happen to demonstrate to the Kazakh government that the west are not friends, regardless of what they say. An attempt to ruin the country in order to create another front for Russia has instead driven them into Russia's 'orbit'.
Will post more later, currently looking into who specifically funded this. The NED (the 'overt' political arm of the CIA) alone has poured 2-3 million into 'political causes' in Kazakhstan over the last few years which means other NGOs aren't far behind, and much more undocumented money and equipment has changed hands. While I don't think Erdogan himself had anything to do with it, a significant chunk of the armed rebels are ethnically Turkish and/or belong to Turkish separatist groups so they likely have some level of support back home.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2022-01-12 at 8:35 AM UTCOh, and contrary to Blinken's hysterics ("You shouldn't have invited CSTO because now Russia will never leave"), the bulk of the CSTO troops are now preparing to head home.
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2022-01-12 at 9:07 AM UTCAngry Turks ... wonder if it's the same general networks who supported the Azerbaijani trouble in Armenia?
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2022-01-12 at 9:10 AM UTCMeh, just a riot over fuel prices but clearly got out of hand.
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2022-01-12 at 1:40 PM UTC1 more thread response a d I'll own the new threads page u fuckersThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2022-01-12 at 3:53 PM UTC
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2022-01-15 at 6 PM UTC
A spokesman for the Prosecutor General’s office stated during a press conference that at least 225 people had been killed. That figure includes police and military personnel, as well as civilians and those whom the government has described as “bandits.”
LOL
probably safe to multiply the 'official numbers' by 10 -
2022-01-15 at 6:23 PM UTCBandits are a thing in African countries or medieval Europe. Do they seriously expect people to believe this is because of "wronguns"
Don't they have a minority group to blame like jedis or was that just a meme in Borat -
2022-01-24 at 12:04 AM UTCThe only good color revolution is a dead one. Glad to see it nipped in the bud.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2022-01-24 at 12:12 AM UTCKazakhstan has alot to be grateful for given the part of the world they are in. Glad some reforms were enacted as per "the people" but doesn't seem like the right ones. Discounting fuel just drives consumption but can make them more competitive regionally in some sectors. Literally never heard of this before this thread
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2022-01-24 at 2:34 AM UTC
Originally posted by Sudo Kazakhstan has alot to be grateful for given the part of the world they are in. Glad some reforms were enacted as per "the people" but doesn't seem like the right ones. Discounting fuel just drives consumption but can make them more competitive regionally in some sectors. Literally never heard of this before this thread
fuel subsidies? they're in place in a lot of Eurasian/Middle-Eastern countries to try and stimulate small businesses and local economies, Iran's been seeing protests for dialing theirs back recently
it's probably not a good policy but it is a popular one -
2022-01-24 at 3:17 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra fuel subsidies? they're in place in a lot of Eurasian/Middle-Eastern countries to try and stimulate small businesses and local economies, Iran's been seeing protests for dialing theirs back recently
it's probably not a good policy but it is a popular one
I remember investigating Venezuela, and basically I found that wages are unbelievably tiny, but everything is subsidised, so everyone basically works for basically nothing but gets all their stuff rationed to them from the government. As a way of building dependence on the state it works. -
2022-01-24 at 4:18 AM UTC
Originally posted by Donald Trump I remember investigating Venezuela, and basically I found that wages are unbelievably tiny, but everything is subsidised, so everyone basically works for basically nothing but gets all their stuff rationed to them from the government. As a way of building dependence on the state it works.
Tiny wages plus hyperinflation makes my pink dick harder than the loaf at the end of the breadlineThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2022-01-24 at 4:21 AM UTCDamn girl you gotta tiny wage. You know i'm a sucker for cheap women. Lmao.
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2022-01-24 at 4:34 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra fuel subsidies? they're in place in a lot of Eurasian/Middle-Eastern countries to try and stimulate small businesses and local economies, Iran's been seeing protests for dialing theirs back recently
it's probably not a good policy but it is a popular one
you dont believe in wealth redistribution ?
fuel subsidies is a way to promote equity.
