User Controls
World to hit temperature tipping point 10 years faster than forecast
-
2021-08-10 at 10:09 AM UTC
-
2021-08-10 at 10:52 AM UTCThere are two different predictions about the climate, and it seems important to keep them separate. There's the models for warming, which show how much we are going to warm in the future based on various scenarios.
But then there's the whole science of trying to predict what real-world effects will happen when. At which degrees do we see various weather events, disasters, tipping points, etc.
We are at 1.1 or 1.2 degrees right now. We will be flirting 1.5 in a decade guaranteed.
But you have to follow the real-world events and what the experts are saying who are observing things in the field right now.
The glaciers are melting at levels that experts thought would be at higher levels of warming.
The arctic is melting at levels that should be happening at higher levels of warming.
The droughts, floods, heatwaves and record highs --- just read the quotes from the actual scientists who study these things for a living. The quotes have been endless -- "We didn't expect this for 50, 70, 100 years."
The permafrost is melting at rates that the experts said wouldn't happen for 70 years.
“Scientists have been shocked that the warm weather conducive to permafrost thawing is occurring roughly 70 years ahead of model projections,” the CCAG warning states. It also points out that the Arctic could lose 89 percent of its permafrost by 2100, the Moscow Times reports.
This is not an isolated thing. This is happening across all measures. It's a running joke on this sub, but 99.9% of people are completely unaware of this trend.
Bottom line: We are all indebted to the scientists doing the research on this stuff, but the IPCC summary/media event--and when *exactly* we hit 1.5 or 2.0 or 3.0--is far less important than the fact that 1.5 is probably going to look more like what scientists said 3 would look like. (The real 2030s are going look/feel like the 2080s they predicted.) If we take the scientists at their word now and don't wait 10 years for a summary of it.
That alone is enough to fuck over modern global civilization. But it seems more likely than ever that all the "big baddies" (AMOC, BOE, Permafrost, Amazon collapse, etc.) that serious scientists say would happen "late in the century" are going to happen in the first half (i.e. next 25 years).
2021: Climate scientists shocked by scale of floods in Germany (Guardian)
“I am surprised by how far it is above the previous record,” Dieter Gerten, professor of global change climatology and hydrology at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said. “We seem to be not just above normal but in domains we didn’t expect in terms of spatial extent and the speed it developed.”
2021: Giant Ice Shelf Crumbling Faster Than Expected (Scientific American)
2020: The Arctic is getting hotter, greener and less icy much faster than expected, report finds (CNN)
"We thought the changes would take a lot longer, and the models were saying they would," said James Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, who has been a part of all 15 Arctic Report Cards and co-authored the portion on surface air temperatures in this edition. "But the rate of change we've seen in the last 20 years -- and especially the last five years -- is beyond what we thought would happen."
2019: Faster pace of climate change is 'scary', former chief scientist says (BBC)
Speaking to the BBC, Prof King, a former chief scientific adviser to the government, said: “It’s appropriate to be scared. We predicted temperatures would rise, but we didn’t foresee these sorts of extreme events we’re getting so soon.”
2018: The Oceans Are Heating Up Faster Than Expected(Scientific American)
The findings “have implications, because the planet is clearly warming and at faster rates that previously appreciated, and the oceans are the main memory of the climate system (along with ice loss),” he told E&E News by email. “The oceans account for about 92% of the Earth’s energy imbalance. This is why we are having increased bouts of strong storms (hurricanes, typhoons) and flooding events.”
2018:
Greenland’s Glaciers Are Melting Faster Than Expected.(PBS)
“The changes we are witnessing are amazing,” says Eric Rignot, a professor at The University of California, Irvine and a senior scientist on a NASA team that’s traveled to Greenland to try to better understand exactly how quickly its glaciers are melting. “None of us expected to see such changes in Greenland.”
2017: Climate Change Is Happening Faster Than Expected, and It’s More Extreme (Inside Climate News)
“Increasingly, the science suggests that many of the impacts are occurring earlier and with greater amplitude than was predicted,” Mann said, after considering new research since the milestone of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment, which served as the scientific basis for the Paris Agreement.
2016: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change (Reuters)
“What concerns me most is that we didn’t anticipate these temperature jumps,” said David Carlson, director of the WMO’s climate research program, late on Monday.
“We predicted moderate warmth for 2016, but nothing like the temperature rises we’ve seen,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation by telephone from Geneva. -
2021-08-10 at 11:05 AM UTCglobal warming is a favourite disaster scenario because it's one of the few where it's 'everyone's fault' and the people responsible don't have names and addresses
-
2021-08-10 at 11:47 AM UTCI got a small cabin in the mountains in norway. I usually rent it out during the summer but i might have to consider it being a future home for myself and my family since the water levels are way too high where i currently reside and in a few years you probably can't live here anymore.
Its relatively easy to expand on the cabin and perhaps also add a storm cellar of sorts if i don't encounter too much rock.
If there's enough time i will get around to building a bunker, not because i'm a doomsday fanatic but it would seem like a reasonable thing to do when society is collapsing due to floods, storms and the following electrical failures, shortage of food, mass hysteria, billions dead etc. -
2021-08-10 at 12:28 PM UTCI'm still wearing jeans and long sleeve shirts in the Texas heat.
-
2021-08-10 at 2:45 PM UTC
Originally posted by Xlite I got a small cabin in the mountains in norway. I usually rent it out during the summer but i might have to consider it being a future home for myself and my family since the water levels are way too high where i currently reside and in a few years you probably can't live here anymore.
Its relatively easy to expand on the cabin and perhaps also add a storm cellar of sorts if i don't encounter too much rock.
If there's enough time i will get around to building a bunker, not because i'm a doomsday fanatic but it would seem like a reasonable thing to do when society is collapsing due to floods, storms and the following electrical failures, shortage of food, mass hysteria, billions dead etc.
if you have a daughter its time to marry her off because you dont want to be trapped in a bunker with your wife and daughter/s, -
2021-08-10 at 2:53 PM UTC
Originally posted by Xlite I got a small cabin in the mountains in norway. I usually rent it out during the summer but i might have to consider it being a future home for myself and my family since the water levels are way too high where i currently reside and in a few years you probably can't live here anymore.
Its relatively easy to expand on the cabin and perhaps also add a storm cellar of sorts if i don't encounter too much rock.
If there's enough time i will get around to building a bunker, not because i'm a doomsday fanatic but it would seem like a reasonable thing to do when society is collapsing due to floods, storms and the following electrical failures, shortage of food, mass hysteria, billions dead etc.
Do you live in another country like Holland or Denmark? -
2021-08-10 at 3:23 PM UTC
-
2021-08-10 at 3:26 PM UTC
Originally posted by RisiR † Also, this might be the dumbest thing I've ever read.
because youre an existentially insecure snowflakeMy self-esteem only and exclusively depends on things I have accomplished myself and to be honest defeating climate change isn't one of them but it would sure be a nice badge to add to my collection.
considering how awfully defensive you sounded in this sentence, i dont think thats true. -
2021-08-10 at 3:28 PM UTC
Originally posted by vindicktive vinny if you have a daughter its time to marry her off because you dont want to be trapped in a bunker with your wife and daughter/s,
hes a convicted sex offender, i dont think he cares about whether or not he could control his perversions. some alone time with his daughters in an apocalypse where the law cant tell him what to do is probably a paradise for him. -
2021-08-10 at 4:02 PM UTC
-
2021-08-10 at 5:33 PM UTC
Originally posted by Obbe There are two different predictions about the climate, and it seems important to keep them separate. There's the models for warming, which show how much we are going to warm in the future based on various scenarios.
But then there's the whole science of trying to predict what real-world effects will happen when. At which degrees do we see various weather events, disasters, tipping points, etc.
We are at 1.1 or 1.2 degrees right now. We will be flirting 1.5 in a decade guaranteed.
But you have to follow the real-world events and what the experts are saying who are observing things in the field right now.
The glaciers are melting at levels that experts thought would be at higher levels of warming.
The arctic is melting at levels that should be happening at higher levels of warming.
The droughts, floods, heatwaves and record highs — just read the quotes from the actual scientists who study these things for a living. The quotes have been endless – "We didn't expect this for 50, 70, 100 years."
The permafrost is melting at rates that the experts said wouldn't happen for 70 years.
“Scientists have been shocked that the warm weather conducive to permafrost thawing is occurring roughly 70 years ahead of model projections,” the CCAG warning states. It also points out that the Arctic could lose 89 percent of its permafrost by 2100, the Moscow Times reports.
This is not an isolated thing. This is happening across all measures. It's a running joke on this sub, but 99.9% of people are completely unaware of this trend.
Bottom line: We are all indebted to the scientists doing the research on this stuff, but the IPCC summary/media event–and when *exactly* we hit 1.5 or 2.0 or 3.0–is far less important than the fact that 1.5 is probably going to look more like what scientists said 3 would look like. (The real 2030s are going look/feel like the 2080s they predicted.) If we take the scientists at their word now and don't wait 10 years for a summary of it.
That alone is enough to fuck over modern global civilization. But it seems more likely than ever that all the "big baddies" (AMOC, BOE, Permafrost, Amazon collapse, etc.) that serious scientists say would happen "late in the century" are going to happen in the first half (i.e. next 25 years).
2021: Climate scientists shocked by scale of floods in Germany (Guardian)
“I am surprised by how far it is above the previous record,” Dieter Gerten, professor of global change climatology and hydrology at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said. “We seem to be not just above normal but in domains we didn’t expect in terms of spatial extent and the speed it developed.”
2021: Giant Ice Shelf Crumbling Faster Than Expected (Scientific American)
2020: The Arctic is getting hotter, greener and less icy much faster than expected, report finds (CNN)
"We thought the changes would take a lot longer, and the models were saying they would," said James Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, who has been a part of all 15 Arctic Report Cards and co-authored the portion on surface air temperatures in this edition. "But the rate of change we've seen in the last 20 years – and especially the last five years – is beyond what we thought would happen."
2019: Faster pace of climate change is 'scary', former chief scientist says (BBC)
Speaking to the BBC, Prof King, a former chief scientific adviser to the government, said: “It’s appropriate to be scared. We predicted temperatures would rise, but we didn’t foresee these sorts of extreme events we’re getting so soon.”
2018: The Oceans Are Heating Up Faster Than Expected(Scientific American)
The findings “have implications, because the planet is clearly warming and at faster rates that previously appreciated, and the oceans are the main memory of the climate system (along with ice loss),” he told E&E News by email. “The oceans account for about 92% of the Earth’s energy imbalance. This is why we are having increased bouts of strong storms (hurricanes, typhoons) and flooding events.”
2018:
Greenland’s Glaciers Are Melting Faster Than Expected.(PBS)
“The changes we are witnessing are amazing,” says Eric Rignot, a professor at The University of California, Irvine and a senior scientist on a NASA team that’s traveled to Greenland to try to better understand exactly how quickly its glaciers are melting. “None of us expected to see such changes in Greenland.”
2017: Climate Change Is Happening Faster Than Expected, and It’s More Extreme (Inside Climate News)
“Increasingly, the science suggests that many of the impacts are occurring earlier and with greater amplitude than was predicted,” Mann said, after considering new research since the milestone of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment, which served as the scientific basis for the Paris Agreement.
2016: Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change (Reuters)
“What concerns me most is that we didn’t anticipate these temperature jumps,” said David Carlson, director of the WMO’s climate research program, late on Monday.
“We predicted moderate warmth for 2016, but nothing like the temperature rises we’ve seen,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation by telephone from Geneva.
Scientists tend to agree 100% with whoever and whatever is funding them. -
2021-08-10 at 6:28 PM UTC
Originally posted by Kev hes a convicted sex offender, i dont think he cares about whether or not he could control his perversions. some alone time with his daughters in an apocalypse where the law cant tell him what to do is probably a paradise for him.
Keep your fucked up fantasies to yourself, pedo. -
2021-08-10 at 9:29 PM UTC
Originally posted by ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ Scientists tend to agree 100% with whoever and whatever is funding them.
Yes, the IPCC's last report, that centered around a prediction of 1.5C by 2050, was replete with all sorts of fantastical assumptions, such as every single country in the world developing effective NET's in the early 90's, with each subsequent year exponentially increasing the NET's ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere.
That's simply a farcical assumption made by the IPCC. Here's the talk where Kevin walks through every single caveat and assumption, contrasting them to reality:
-
2021-08-11 at 11:12 AM UTCExxon Lobbyist admitting that they have been aware of the impact of climate change and elaborates on how they avoided the harsh reality/accountability:
-
2021-08-11 at 11:15 AM UTCobviously, it's going to happen. are people really this blind or...i dont even know anymore
-
2021-08-11 at 3:46 PM UTCThe clowns and their clown posse are going to change the weather by picking your pockets. It's like magic.
-
2021-08-11 at 3:50 PM UTC
Originally posted by cryptographiccontrarian obviously, it's going to happen. are people really this blind or…i dont even know anymore
What's going to happen? the ice age I was told about in the 80s or the global nuclear war we were also told about in the 80s...or the fact the world would have exhausted it's fossil fuels by the year 2000?
...don't even get me started on the flying car...
ETA: oh and lets not forget we were all supposed to be dead or infected with AIDS by now. -
2021-08-11 at 3:52 PM UTC
-
2021-08-11 at 9:50 PM UTCThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
