Serious post.
After the ridiculous flop of the democrats convention it reminded me of a few key differences between the left and the right that cannot be forgotten when doing analysis of this election cycle.
By miles, republicans have a much higher level of enthusiasm. Nearly every single 'meme' that the democrats come up with is unoriginal and often a straight copy of a right wing original, creativity is a symptom of high enthusiasm. The right are campaigning hard, Trump has been holding successful rallies throughout his presidency. Biden is failing to visually appear on the campaign trail. The left don't have the initiative this election, they simply respond to the trump campaign like a dog on a lead.
Where's Joe Biden? Not on the campaign trail:
https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-08-07/wheres-joe-biden-not-on-the-campaign-trailBiden is boring and drawl. He's earned his moniker of Sleepy Joe and it will stay. He isn't exciting, he isn't energetic. No-one is excited to hear him speak, especially his supporters. The attitude towards him is "well it's biden but at least it's not Trump".
Enthusiasm is key. It is a primary motivator to actually vote. I would suggest up to 5 points of Biden's lead can be neglected due to the lack of enthusiasm on the left. A further few points can probably be ignored as the big democratic cities weight it in Biden's favour.
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The second is the gap of positive emotions.
What does the campaign of Biden bring? Discussion and reflection on white supremacy, race riots and general topics around racism and sexism and coronavirus. Biden's first speech after getting Harris as VP was to whine about Charlottesville in a continued attempt to stoke emotions of anger and fear into the left. They've been doing it for 4 years now and everyone's more miserable for it.
Trump on the other hand is a character of charisma and energy. He talks about winning and loving america all the time. He is constantly engaging with memes. He insults his opponents directly. He creates nick-names for them. He is rude but he is fun and exciting. You watch a live rally of his and unless you're a die-hard opponent, his rallies are entertaining and enjoyable. The republicans are crafting an atmosphere of comradely around trump while the left continue their talk of reparations and bringing down capitalism. Trump talks of further tax cuts and bringing american manufacturing back. Biden talks of gun control and high taxes.
Trump promotes an air of freedom, Biden promotes further regulation and more of the establishment.
It doesn't even matter how much of Trumps "winning" persona matches or becomes reality, only the fact he is established as a winning persona. It feels good to side with a winner, someone who is ambitious and breaks the norms.
The Biden campaign need to go in hard very soon because the scales are tipping back in trumps favor.
