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leaked documents reveal: US hospitals are preparing for 96 MILLION coronavirus infections and nearly HALF A MILLION deaths
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2020-03-08 at 7:35 PM UTC
US hospitals are preparing for 96 million coronavirus infections and nearly half a million deaths from the outbreak, leaked documents have revealed.
The spread of the deadly disease could be far worse than officials claim, with 480,000 Americans expected to die from the virus and 4.8 million hospitalized, according to a presentation hosted by The American Hospital Association (AHA) in February.
This puts the crisis on a level more than 10 times greater than that seen in a severe flu season.
The shock figures fly in the face of claims made by President Trump who has maintained on many occasions that the risk to Americans is 'low'.
Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, presented the harrowing 'best guess' estimates of the extent of the outbreak to hospitals and health professionals as part of the AHA webinar called 'What healthcare leaders need to know: Preparing for the COVID-19' on February 26.
The slides, obtained by Business Insider, suggest that hospitals need to ramp up preparations now to reduce the death toll around the US.
At the time of the presentation last week, there were more than 80,000 confirmed cases around the globe.
At the time, the US had around 60 cases and no deaths. Fast forward just one week, and the US has more than 430 cases and 19 confirmed deaths.
Worldwide, more than 100,000 people have now been infected.
The spread of the deadly disease could be far worse than officials claim, with 480,000 Americans expected to die from the virus and 4.8 million hospitalized, according to estimates from University of Nebraska professor Dr. James Lawler. People are pictured buying hand sanitizer in Washington DC Friday
The leaked slides also reveal the significant risks to older people and those with pre-existing health conditions if they catch coronavirus.
People aged 80 and over have a 14.8% chance of dying if they contract the infection, the slides revealed.
The risk declines with youth, though those aged 70-79 and 60-69 are still placed at a significant risk, with 8% and 3.6% mortality rates respectively.
Lawler also estimated that people with heart conditions have a one in 10 chance of dying from the disease, compared to the less than one in a 100 chance among healthy individuals with no pre-existing medical conditions.
A spokesman for Nebraska Medicine told Business Insider that the figures represent the views of Lawler and 'his interpretation of the data available'
'It's possible that forecast will change as more information becomes available,' they said.
The AHA added that the views were the speaker's and not its own.
However, Lawler isn't the first to warn that the disease could spread farther than first thought.
Harvard University Professor Marc Lipsitch previously told The Atlantic that up to 70% of the global population will be infected with coronavirus within the next year.
Lawler did not give a particular timeframe for the outbreak but his estimates ramp up fears that the disease could push US hospitals to their limits.
President Trump, who has faced criticism for downplaying the risk of the disease, signed a spending bill to allocate $8.3 billion to tackle the crisis.
The president only asked Congress for just above $2 billion but they rejected that and both houses passed an $8.3 billion spending bill Friday.
While the figure more than triples the amount outlined by the White House last month, Democrat rivals have slammed Trump saying it's too little, too late.
The new funding measure provides money for public health agencies for tests, vaccines and other treatments.
It will also provide money to state and local governments to respond to the epidemic.
The House passed the legislation Wednesday and the Senate did so on Thursday, as part of a rapid response to increased public fears about the disease, which has disrupted schools, airlines, and spring break plans.
A group of lawmakers from both parties negotiated the increased figure and other provisions in the measure in a rare sign of bipartisanship.
The president also said 'anyone who wants a test can get a test', throwing widespread confusion into the air given widespread shortages of tests.
The US death toll from coronavirus rose to 17 Friday, after three new deaths were recorded in Washington state and Florida recorded its first two.
The Florida Department of Health confirmed the latest deaths Friday night.
One of the fatalities was a man in his 70s who had been sick in Santa Rosa County in the Panhandle, and the other was a man in his 70s in Lee County on the Gulf Coast. Both men had reportedly traveled internationally.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8085175/US-hospitals-prepare-96-MILLION-coronavirus-cases-HALF-MILLION-deaths-leaked-papers-show.html -
2020-03-08 at 10:22 PM UTChalf a million dead people = fucking nothingThe following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire!
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2020-03-08 at 10:31 PM UTCThey claim 100 million will be affected with 500k dead. That's a 0.5% mortality rate.
Also as with any studies on it, the fact remains they do not know how many infections there presently are, and thus the fatality rate is a big unknown.
In any case, those that die will be old people. They own a disproportionate amount of property. Finally housing has a glimmer of hope to us millenials.The following users say it would be alright if the author of this post didn't die in a fire! -
2020-03-08 at 10:53 PM UTCI find it interesting how common it is in reports across social media that doctors are unable to tell people whether they have corona or regular flu. There seems to be no way to accurately guage infections or lethality
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2020-03-08 at 10:57 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra I find it interesting how common it is in reports across social media that doctors are unable to tell people whether they have corona or regular flu. There seems to be no way to accurately guage infections or lethality
Here they can’t tell because we don’t have enough tests. Supposedly that will change next week, once that happens out affected rate will go way up I’m sure. -
2020-03-08 at 10:59 PM UTC
Originally posted by Technologist Here they can’t tell because we don’t have enough tests. Supposedly that will change next week, once that happens out affected rate will go way up I’m sure.
yeah a common theme seems to be that doctors have no way to test and are sending people to the hospital if they suspect corona, but many hospitals don't have any/enough test kits either.
I also remember reading that the CDC test kits were highly inaccurate, though I don't know if that's been resolved -
2020-03-08 at 11 PM UTCim not entirely sure viruses even exist.
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2020-03-08 at 11 PM UTCit might be demons
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2020-03-08 at 11:05 PM UTCit unironically might be
just like people 'coincidentally' get sick when they have emotional and mental disturbances... oh look there's a bacteria. people don't usually question if perhaps the state of sickness actually gave rise to the bacteria rather than vice versa. -
2020-03-08 at 11:07 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra yeah a common theme seems to be that doctors have no way to test and are sending people to the hospital if they suspect corona, but many hospitals don't have any/enough test kits either.
I also remember reading that the CDC test kits were highly inaccurate, though I don't know if that's been resolved
I’m beginning to wonder how long it’s been here. How could it get to half the states across the US this quickly? That’s why I think there are many more.
I heard something about the test accuracy being 50%, but supposedly that is being fixed. -
2020-03-08 at 11:07 PM UTC
Originally posted by Splam They claim 100 million will be affected with 500k dead. That's a 0.5% mortality rate.
Also as with any studies on it, the fact remains they do not know how many infections there presently are, and thus the fatality rate is a big unknown.
In any case, those that die will be old people. They own a disproportionate amount of property. Finally housing has a glimmer of hope to us millenials.
*infected -
2020-03-08 at 11:07 PM UTCI don't think there is a test "kit".
Testing seems to be by looking for specific genes in a lab - which means you need a PCR setup, which is a big deal.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-detection-instructions.html
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/laboratory-guidance -
2020-03-08 at 11:13 PM UTChttps://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/peiris-protocol-16-1-20.pdf?sfvrsn=af1aac73_4
Kinda sad I never got more into molecular biology, most of this stuff is well above my head. -
2020-03-08 at 11:13 PM UTChttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
COVID-19 testing can also be done with antibody test kits. Antibody assays use a blood serum sample and can provide a positive result even if the person has recovered and the virus is no longer present. The first antibody test was demonstrated by a team at the Wuhan Institute of Virology on 17 February 2020.[22][23]
looks like the 'test kits' being sent out check for antibody levels in blood; PCR and CT scans on the chest cavity are more thorough options -
2020-03-08 at 11:16 PM UTC
Originally posted by aldra https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
looks like the 'test kits' being sent out check for antibody levels in blood; PCR and CT scans on the chest cavity are more thorough options
tests are unreliable and theres so much that we dont know about the virus.
hopefully with it going epidemic in the US we'll know more about it. -
2020-03-08 at 11:21 PM UTC
Originally posted by Technologist I’m beginning to wonder how long it’s been here. How could it get to half the states across the US this quickly? That’s why I think there are many more.
I heard something about the test accuracy being 50%, but supposedly that is being fixed.
they're probably just spraying people with it. coronatrails. -
2020-03-09 at 1:42 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra I find it interesting how common it is in reports across social media that doctors are unable to tell people whether they have corona or regular flu. There seems to be no way to accurately guage infections or lethality
If it even twitches like corona, it is corona. That's the way this has to work. That's the rules. -
2020-03-09 at 1:43 AM UTC
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2020-03-09 at 5:53 AM UTC
Originally posted by Technologist I’m beginning to wonder how long it’s been here. How could it get to half the states across the US this quickly? That’s why I think there are many more.
I heard something about the test accuracy being 50%, but supposedly that is being fixed.
Easy. Globalization. Airplanes spread it before they knew what they were.
