2020-09-27 at 2:28 PM UTC
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2020-09-29 at 1:02 AM UTC
aldra
JIDF Controlled Opposition
OK I've done a little reading about the situation.
Basically back in the 90s Armenia invaded and took the 'Nagorno-Karabakh' region from Azerbaijan because the population was majority-Armenian and they were making a lot of noise about 'reunification'. Azerbaijan had planned a major offensive against Armenia-proper in response, but Russia put a stop to it, warning that Russian forces would enter the conflict if Armenia's borders were threatened. This threat is still in effect to this day.
As of the last few years Armenia has had a pro-western government that's been undermining relations with Russia (even though outwardly claiming to improve them) and Azerbaijan has been improving diplomatic and economic ties (in no small part due to BRI and Eurasian integration projects).
Azerbaijan obviously feels confident that Russia will not involve itself in the conflict over the 'Nagorno-Karabakh', so they feel they have a free hand (as well as overt Turkish support) to do as they please so long as they do not directly attack Armenia. If Armenia attacks Azerbaijan proper, though, I suspect that all guarantees of Russian protection are off and the war escalates from there - watch out for potential false flags.
Assuming this happens, ie. Armenia attacks Azerbaijan and escalates into a regional war, Russia can only remain hands-off so long as Turkey does not get directly involved. If Turkish forces move into the region Russia will have little choice but to get directly involved.
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2020-09-29 at 1:08 AM UTC
Anyone wanna place any bets?
I think Armania is gonna win win win.
2020-09-29 at 1:14 AM UTC
aldra
JIDF Controlled Opposition
If it stays confined to the 'Nagorno-Karabakh' I don't see Armenia coming out on top - Azerbaijan have already taken large portions of the region and set up fire control preventing Armenian reinforcements from entering.
As it stands Turkey will aid Azerbaijan in taking the region but Russia will not aid Armenia unless her borders get violated.
Untrustworthy press releases aside Azer has the advantage
2020-09-29 at 1:16 AM UTC
Originally posted by aldra
If it stays confined to the 'Nagorno-Karabakh' I don't see Armenia coming out on top - Azerbaijan have already taken large portions of the region and set up fire control preventing Armenian reinforcements from entering.
As it stands Turkey will aid Azerbaijan in taking the region but Russia will not aid Armenia unless her borders get violated.
Untrustworthy press releases aside Azer has the advantage
You're not taking into account Armania's secret weapon.
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2020-09-29 at 1:27 AM UTC
aldra
JIDF Controlled Opposition
LOL Turkey is moving their 'assets' from Idlib in Syria to Azerbaijan. Azer is going to regret allowing this
2020-10-02 at 6:22 AM UTC
aldra
JIDF Controlled Opposition
TURBO LOL
https://investigativejournal.org/turkeys-syrian-mercenaries-in-azerbaijan-feel-tricked-as-bodies-pile-up/Turkey used Sultan Murad division to recruit fighters in Syria, offering them ~3x the pay they were getting to go to Azerbaijan to 'guard military facilities'.
Days later, reports emerged that Syrians had been among those killed as the tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh area escalated. “They tricked us. They told us we were coming to guard a Turkish base. Then we get here and it’s fighting, right away, it’s fighting. The sons of bitches will not return us,” said a Hamza Division militant in Azerbaijan. “The fighting isn’t like anything I have seen. It’s like a movie. It’s constant bombardment.”
fucking rekt
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